The Liberals and New Democrats have effectively swapped their positions in the polls from a week ago, with the NDP now firmly in second place nationally and the Liberals five points behind in third place, according to results from polling released Wednesday.

The new poll results from Nanos Research show the Conservatives holding onto the 10-point lead they have held for most of the campaign, with the NDP trending up and the Liberals bleeding support.

The NDP's support is especially strong in Quebec where the party is now in first place with a 12-point lead over the second-place Bloc Quebecois.

"The reality is the 鈥榦range surge' is strongest in the province of Quebec," Nik Nanos, president and CEO of Nanos Research, told CTV's Power Play. "We haven't seen, I wouldn't even call it a surge, outside of Quebec. We've seen the NDP incrementally improve support. But right now the most dramatic numbers are in the province of Quebec."

Nanos conducted the polling on behalf of CTV and the Globe and Mail over April 23, 24 and 26. No polling was conducted on Easter Monday.

The new national numbers are as follows (polling numbers from March 15 in brackets):

  • Conservatives: 37.8 per cent (38.6 per cent)
  • New Democrats: 27.8 per cent (19.9 per cent)
  • Liberals: 22.9 per cent (27.6 per cent)
  • Bloc Quebecois: 5.8 per cent (10.1 per cent)
  • Greens: 4.7 per cent (3.8 per cent)

Regionally, the NDP's rise has been strongest in Quebec, where the party now leads with 36.5 per cent support, up from a low point of around 12 per cent early in the campaign.

The Bloc follows with 24.2 per cent, down from a high of 38.1 per cent on March 15. The Liberals and Conservatives are in third and fourth place respectively in Quebec, with 20.3 per cent and 13.6 per cent support.

According to Nanos, the Quebec numbers indicate that the Bloc Quebecois "will probably have their worst showing ever come Monday."

The NDP's surging poll numbers correspond with a boost in New Democrat Leader Jack Layton's leadership score.

The Nanos Leadership Index Score is measured daily and based on three indicators: trust, competence and vision for Canada. Prime Minister Stephen Harper enjoyed a wide lead over the other party leaders for much of the campaign. However, according to results from April 26, Layton is now in first place with a score of 86.2. That is up from a score of 73.2 on Sunday.

Harper, meanwhile, is in second place with a score of 82.7. On Sunday, his score was 105.7. Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff is a distant third with a score of 40.1.

Layton's lead over Harper can be primarily attributed to his trustworthiness rating of 33.2. Harper's trustworthiness rating is 24.5.

Layton's leadership score surpassed Ignatieff's about a week before the NDP's surge in the polls, Nanos said Wednesday.

"Just a little trivia note: We've been having this index since 2008," Nanos said. "No one's laid a hand on Stephen Harper until yesterday."

Regional numbers

In Atlantic Canada the Conservatives lead with 37.8 per cent support, followed by the Liberals with 29 per cent and the NDP with 26.5 per cent. However, all three of the parties are within the margin of error, meaning they are still in a statistical tie.

In Ontario the Conservatives have moved firmly into the lead with the support of 46.9 per cent of those polled.

The Liberals have trended down to 25.7 per cent support in the province, plummeting from a peak of about 43 per cent support earlier in the campaign while the NDP has risen to 21 per cent -- representing a statistical tie with the Liberals.

The Conservatives are still strongly in the lead in the Prairies with 49.6 per cent, though the NDP's fortunes have risen there as well, with support hitting a high of 28.2 per cent. The Liberals have dropped to third place with 17.7 per cent support.

In B.C. the Conservatives lead with 40.9 per cent support, while the NDP and Liberals are in a statistical tie with 27.7 per cent and 24.8 per cent support respectively.

In total, 49.2 per cent of those polled said that party policies continued to be the main issue they would consider when casting a ballot. Another 24 per cent said they would base their vote on the party leader, while 14.1 per cent said they would vote for the best local candidate.

Methodology

A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is plus-minus 2.8 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

The tracking in this report is based on polling completed on April 23, 24 and 26. No polling was conducted on Easter Monday and the tracking includes calling from the holiday weekend plus calling done on Tuesday.