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Arguably the most compelling story of the current federal election campaign is the rise in popularity of the New Democratic Party and its leader, Jack Layton, particularly in Quebec. This is especially notable since the NDP barely registered with voters in la belle province as recently as three elections ago. But Layton was strong in both the English and French leaders' debates.

One week before election day, a Nanos opinion poll showed the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois in a statistical tie for second place in the province, where many federalists have traditionally voted Liberal. But Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has failed to catch fire in Quebec and the sponsorship scandal under the Chretien government may still cast a long shadow. Most Quebeckers do not want a majority Conservative government, so will park their vote with another party to prevent that from happening. And some BQ voters seem to be suffering from what has been called "separatist fatigue."

At a campaign stop in Montreal with only six days to go before the May 2 federal vote, and without committing to reopening the Constitution, Layton told a crowd that it is time to create "winning conditions" for Quebec.

And on Easter weekend, in BQ leader Gilles Duceppe`s Montreal riding of Laurier-Sainte-Marie, Layton addressed the biggest NDP rally of the campaign, emphasizing change.

On CTV's Question Period, La Presse editor André Pratte said: "Quebeckers want change and the NDP might benefit from that."

While appearing confident that he and his Conservative party would form a majority government, Stephen Harper targeted NDP and BQ ridings in Quebec in the last week of the campaign, in an attempt to keep the 10 seats they won in 2008.

And in a bid to hold as many of its 47 seats as possible and protect Quebec's interests in parliament, the Bloc Quebecois is appealing to both its so-called "soft nationalist" and separatist supporters to vote for BQ candidates.

On Easter Monday, Duceppe tried to shore up any slip in his party's support by bringing out a big gun, former Parti Québecois premier and separatist icon, 80-year-old Jacques Parizeau. At a campaign stop in Longueuil, just south of Montreal, Parizeau called on all sovereigntists to unite behind Duceppe.

Just how much of a threat is the NDP to the BQ? Andre Pratte, editor of La Presse, said on Question Period, "The NDP doesn't have any organization in Quebec. Most of their candidates are unknown, very young, students. The Bloc has a big organization everywhere in the province, so they'll be able to put the vote out. So there may be some difference between what we see in the polls and the results on May 2."

Races to Watch

One of most exciting races to watch on election night could be the Montreal riding of Outremont, a former Liberal stronghold and the NDP's "beachhead" in the province. The incumbent, Thomas Mulcair, is the NDP's deputy leader and the party's only MP in the province. He was elected in a byelection in 2007 and subsequently won the seat in the 2008 general election. The former provincial Liberal cabinet minister will face off against former federal Liberal cabinet minister, Martin Cauchon, who represented the riding in Ottawa from 1993 to 2004.

Another Montreal race that is too close to call is the riding of Mont Royal, where the Jewish community makes up more than 36 per cent of the constituency. Liberal Irwin Cotler, who has held the seat since 1999, is facing a stiff challenge from another prominent Jewish leader, Saulie Zaidel, who became a Conservative after he became disillusioned with the federal Liberals.

Although left-leaning voters appear to be gravitating toward the NDP, analysts say Liberal support will likely remain steady in and around Montreal. And while the BQ would like to snatch away Justin Trudeau's seat in Papineau, he is expected to keep it. In the city's northern riding of Ahuntsic, first-time Liberal candidate, Noushig Eloyan, is trying to take the seat back from the Bloc. BQ incumbent, Maria Mourani, won in 2008 by only a few votes.

Outside Montreal, there are still many three-ways races:

In the Quebec City riding of Beauport-Limoilou, the Conservatives are pinning their hopes on their star candidate, Sylvia Boucher. In the past two elections she has beaten the Bloc in close races, but new BQ candidate, Michel Létourneau, former director of the Quebec Summer Festival, could give her a run for her money.

The riding of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord in the Lac-St-Jean area is also one to watch on election night. BQ incumbent, Robert Bouchard, hopes to keep his seat in a fight with popular journalist and new Conservative candidate, Carol Néron.

The race in the riding of Gatineau, near the border with Ontario and across the Ottawa River from the federal capital, was a tight three-way race in 2008 and could be another cliff-hanger. The Bloc incumbent, Richard Nadeau, is up against powerhouse businessman, Steve MacKinnon, who could be the Liberal party's best hope to win a seat outside the Montreal area. But NDP contender, Francois Boivin, could ride to victory on a wave of NDP support and win at least a second Quebec seat for the party.

But is the surge in NDP support just a temporary protest vote? It remains to be seen if the party's spike in popularity can sustain its momentum and translate into a significant number of seats in Quebec on election day.

McGill University political science professor, Antonia Maioni, said on Question Period, "Who is the federalist alternative in Quebec? It looks like it is the NDP. But it really does depend on who can get out the vote."