TORONTO -- Coronavirus cases worldwide may be 鈥渙ne big wave鈥 rather than a series of multiple waves, according to a doctor with the World Health Organization, but other experts are casting doubts on these sorts of analogies.
鈥淚t鈥檚 going to be one big wave,鈥 WHO spokesperson Dr. Margaret Harris
鈥淚t鈥檚 going to go up and down a bit 鈥 the best thing is to flatten it and turn it into just something that is lapping at your feet. But at the moment, first, second, third wave, these things don鈥檛 really make sense and we鈥檙e not really defining it that way.鈥
For months, health officials in Canada and around the world have described COVID-19 cases in 鈥渨aves鈥 and encouraged the public to help 鈥渇latten the curve鈥 ahead of an anticipated 鈥渟econd wave鈥 this fall. Describing pandemics in multiple waves dates back to when more than 50 million people died during three distinct waves.
A century later, Harris says this pandemic may be different.
鈥淧eople are still thinking about seasons. What we all need to get our heads around is this is a new virus and 鈥 this one is behaving differently,鈥 she said.
July has been a record-breaking month for new cases of COVID-19 worldwide, driven by surges in the U.S. and Brazil. Canada鈥檚 caseload has generally trended downward, but the country has yet to completely flatten its curve.
Canada鈥檚 current trajectory resembles a sharp wave that peaked on May 3, with 2,760 new cases, and has seen a second, more gradual bump in July.
But some health experts are pushing back against the practice of describing the pandemic in waves, either as 鈥渙ne big wave鈥 or multiple consecutive waves. Dr. Michael Curry, an emergency physician in Delta, B.C., and a clinical assistant professor at the University of British Columbia, is encouraging a wait-and-see approach.
鈥淚 think we should stay away from any wave characterizations until we can look at this retrospectively,鈥 Curry told CTVNews.ca in a phone interview Wednesday.
鈥淲e know that this could rapidly change, and there is no fixed pattern of how pandemics play out.鈥
Curry acknowledged that the pandemic remains a fluid situation, and that all it takes to spark another surge is one case. But he says too much emphasis has been placed on comparing COVID-19 to influenza, which follows a seasonal pattern, when in fact the two viruses are quite different.
鈥淲henever we鈥檙e dealing with a new situation, whether it鈥檚 in health or economics, we always try to relate it to previous situations. So with COVID-19, it鈥檚 an infectious viral infection, and we鈥檝e always tried to relate it to influenza,鈥 he said.
鈥淲e keep thinking it鈥檚 the flu when it鈥檚 not the flu, and we don鈥檛 even understand why the flu has that seasonality."
He compares attempts to characterize the trajectory of COVID-19 as similar to trying to predict a peak in the stock market.
鈥淵ou don鈥檛 know if the stock market has peaked until after it has peaked, otherwise we鈥檇 all be very rich,鈥 he said.
Using 鈥渟econd wave鈥 to describe the anticipated rise in cases this fall may be a helpful tool for public messaging, but some doctors say it鈥檚 more of a communications strategy than an accurate scientific measure.
鈥淭here鈥檚 nothing so precise about it. It鈥檚 more just a helpful communication tool,鈥 Steven Hoffman, a professor of global health, law, and political science at York University in Toronto and director of the Global Strategy Lab, told CTVNews.ca in an earlier interview.
Waves or not, the important thing is to employ effective public health strategies to clamp down on cases, said Dr. Eleanor Fish, an immunology professor at the University of Toronto.
"Whether it鈥檚 one big wave or second and third waves or cluster outbreaks ....(the) key is to be prepared with rapid testing and contact tracing to blunt transmission in communities,鈥 Fish said.
As of Wednesday, Canada has recorded 115,470 cases of COVID-19 and 8.917 people have died. More than 6,000 cases are considered active.
With files from CTV鈥檚 Jackie Dunham
