TORONTO -- Despite a steady increase in COVID-19 cases in many parts of the country and reports that panic buyers are once again stocking up on necessities in preparation for another lockdown, a food economist is reassuring shoppers there will be enough supply to meet the sudden demand.
Michael von Massow, a food economist at the University of Guelph鈥檚 Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics who studies the performance of food supply chains, said he is seeing recent reports of 鈥渦nexpected surges in demand鈥� for certain products, such as toilet paper and paper towels.
While he said he couldn鈥檛 understand why consumers were suddenly buying up toilet paper in bulk, von Massow said there are several reasons why paper towels might be in high demand.
Firstly, he said the rising number of COVID-19 cases is making people think about sanitation and they鈥檙e using disposable products like paper towels for that purpose. He also said the return to school and work, for some, means that social bubbles 鈥� and the risk of exposure to the virus 鈥� may be increasing and people are worried about hygiene.
鈥淚 think we probably have a better sense of infection control and are doing more sanitizing,鈥� von Massow told CTVNews.ca during a telephone interview on Tuesday. 鈥淎s we do more sanitizing, we鈥檙e using more paper towel, which is driving some of these shortages that we鈥檙e seeing now.鈥�
Dino Bianco, the CEO of Kruger Products, which manufactures tissue products, said he believes paper towels are being used as a substitute for disinfectant wipes, which are still in short supply.
鈥淧eople weren鈥檛 thinking about paper towels in March, but as they were cleaning more and cleaning everything,鈥� he told 麻豆影视 Ottawa. 鈥淣ot as dramatic as it was for toilet paper, but we are starting to see a lift.鈥�
As in the springtime when the pandemic began and grocery store shelves were cleaned out of toilet paper and other sanitation products, von Massow said the current shortages are demand-based and not supply driven.
鈥淲e don鈥檛 have supply-based shortages. We have unexpected surges in demand that weren鈥檛 within our forecasts and it just takes a while for the system to catch up,鈥� he explained. 鈥淲e鈥檙e not out of paper. We鈥檙e not out of trees. We鈥檙e just short on ready-made paper towels sitting in inventory.鈥�
Bianco said Canadian manufacturers are working around the clock to meet the demand with suppliers beginning to ration paper towel shipments.
While von Massow said he鈥檚 confident the system will catch up 鈥渧ery quickly,鈥� he said he鈥檚 concerned about the ripple effect of shoppers seeing emptier shelves and buying products they don鈥檛 need because of it.
鈥淚t feeds on itself,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e hear news reports that we鈥檙e short of paper towel, we see maybe our store having not as much as it should, and when we do see it, we buy way more than we need.
It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.鈥�
It鈥檚 not just paper towels, either. The food economist said this mindset can spill over to other things so that consumers start stocking up on other products after they see that one item is low in stock.
鈥淭hese things can sort of accelerate just because of this psychological fear of running out, even though the system is going to catch up relatively quickly,鈥� he said.
For anyone who may be concerned about the emptier shelves during their next visit to the store, von Massow reiterated that the system will recover quickly because they are demand-based shortages and not supply-based ones.
鈥淚t will catch up,鈥� he said. 鈥淟ook back at what happened when there was a much more profound shock to the system in wave number one鈥� how quickly things caught up again.鈥�
While there may not be the same range of choice in paper towels or toilet paper during this period of increased demand, von Massow said there will still be product on the shelves.
鈥淭he system worked and it will continue to work,鈥� he said. 鈥淲hile there may be some bumps in the road, we are going to be fine from an access to food and cleaning supplies perspective.鈥�
