OTTAWA - A new poll suggests the Liberals have pulled ahead of the Conservatives amid bad news on the economy and controversy over the Afghan military mission.
The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey indicates the Liberals were the party of choice for 32 per cent of respondents, compared to 29 for the Tories.
The NDP stood at 16 per cent and the Green party at 12. The Bloc Quebecois was at nine per cent nationally but in Quebec -- the only province where the Bloc runs candidates -- the party led the pack at 37 per cent.
The Liberals were ahead of the Tories in vote-rich Ontario and Quebec.
The two parties have been see-sawing into and out of the national lead since mid-December.
The latest poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday, following a spate of warnings about declining economic growth, rising unemployment and a possible recession on the horizon.
There was also a furor over the continuing military deployment in Afghanistan, fed in part by the disclosure that the government failed to reveal that the military has stopped handing over prisoners to Afghan authorities because of torture concerns.
Bruce Anderson, president of Harris-Decima, said the Conservatives appeared to many voters to be losing control of political events.
"It's not necessarily that people are saying they're doing a bad job, as much as it is that there's a lack of enthusiasm for them,'' said Anderson.
"That has been the consistent problem for the Conservatives. When they lose control of the agenda, their numbers tend to sag.''
The problem could be exacerbated over the next two months, as the Tories prepare to bring in a budget and get ready for a vote on whether to persevere with the Afghan mission.
There will also be renewed committee hearings this week on the Mulroney-Schreiber affair and on the pre-Christmas shutdown of the Chalk River nuclear rector that sparked a shortage of medical isotopes.
"Most of the things that people will be talking about in and around Ottawa in the very near term are things that are more likely to be negatives than positives for the Conservatives,'' said Anderson.
On the other hand, the Liberal polling numbers aren't strong enough to be unadulterated good news for Opposition Leader Stephane Dion. Despite the Tory drop, the Grits still are the choice of just a third of respondents, and questions persist about Dion's leadership.
Anderson perceives a "lack of passion'' as well for the New Democrats and the Bloc, suggesting that no party can look forward with great confidence to the next election.
Few respondents identify themselves as strong partisans of any party, and the situation has become unusually fluid from poll to poll depending on the latest headlines to grab public attention.
"Anybody that thinks bad news for the Conservatives represents strong wind in their party's sails, I think, needs to look at these numbers a little more carefully,'' said Anderson.
He also suggested that, in turbulent political times, a more accurate view of the electorate can often be obtained by looking at average poll results over a three-week period.
Using those rolling totals as a benchmark, the Tories come out at 32 per cent support in the last three weeks of January, while the Liberals were at 30.
The latest data was gathered in a telephone survey of 1,000 respondents between Jan. 24 and Jan. 27. The results are considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times in 20.
