OTTAWA - A new poll suggests Canada's political parties might want to retract their claws and tone down their bombast as they prepare for Monday's resumption of Parliament.
According to The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey, Canadians have little attachment to political parties and increasingly view the two main political competitors - the Conservatives and the Liberals - as interchangeable.
In short, the poll suggests Canadians are increasingly non-partisan at a time when politicians are winding themselves up to new partisan heights.
The poll found only a small percentage of Canadians are actually committed to either of the main parties. Twelve per cent said they'd be comfortable only with a Tory victory in the next election; 13 per cent would be comfortable only with a Liberal win.
Three times as many respondents - 35 per cent - said they'd be comfortable with either a Tory or Liberal victory.
"I think that the signal is that people see partisanship as being something that's not really very much about the achievement of their goals as citizens and, as a consequence, they'd rather see a lot less of it," said Harris-Decima president Bruce Anderson.
They're not going to get their wish any time soon. The winter parliamentary sitting promises to be hyper-combative, with all parties jockeying for political advantage as the country teeters perpetually on the brink of an election.
Any number of issues could trigger the fall of the minority Conservative government - among them the Manley panel's proposed extension of the military mission in Afghanistan and the federal budget expected as early as Feb. 5.
Any of the opposition parties could also force a confidence vote over a variety of other issues, including the government's confused and secretive policy regarding Afghan detainees, its decision to sack the head of Canada's nuclear safety watchdog or any new revelations in the Mulroney-Schreiber affair. Commons committee inquiries into the latter two matters are set to resume the first week back.
The NDP and Bloc Quebecois have signalled that they're prepared to force an election at any time. The Liberals, who propped up the government throughout the fall by abstaining on crucial votes, are torn over what to do and have said they'll decide on a vote-by-vote basis.
With every issue viewed through the filter of a possible election, the sitting is bound to be aggressive, if not downright nasty.
But Anderson said a heavily partisan approach is not likely to find much favour with Canadians.
The latest poll suggests "there's a real disconnect (between politicians and people) and that maybe the disconnect is growing".
Indeed, Anderson said the results should prompt both the Conservatives and Liberals to think twice about prompting an election any time soon.
"These numbers suggest an election now for either of those two parties is a roll of the dice".
The telephone poll of just over 1,000 Canadians was conducted Jan. 17-20 and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points 19 times in 20.
Asked what kind of government they'd prefer, 23 per cent selected Tory majority, 21 per cent Liberal majority, 12 per cent Conservative minority and 10 per cent Liberal minority. Thirty per cent didn't answer or didn't know.
Further probing underscored just how interchangeable allegiances to the two major parties have become.
For instance, 54 per cent said a Conservative minority would be acceptable, 49 per cent said a Tory majority would be acceptable. The results were almost identical for Liberals: 59 per cent said a Liberal minority would be acceptable while 50 per cent said a Grit majority would be fine.
Anderson said the poll suggests that voters see both parties as pragmatic, rather than ideologically-driven. As a result, they see fewer and fewer differences between them and many would be satisfied with either in power.
Anderson said voters will tolerate "hammer and tong" partisanship where there are real differences of opinion among the parties over serious issues. But they're bound to be skeptical in the current climate, where every big issue is seen as a potential election trigger.
"The perception would be that whatever apparent substantive differences there might be might not be born of kind of a deep analysis and conviction . . . but rather a deep political calculation about which is most likely to get the most number of votes."
