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    • Russia does care about western sanctions, expert says

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    Many eyes were on Geneva Friday at the talks between U.S. Secretary of State Andrew Blinken and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov as the two nations continue to spar over what U.S. President Joe Biden said could be an imminent invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces amassed along the border.

    Back in Canada however, the Russian ambassador had a strong reply to the Western response levelled at his home country, as Canada announced it had sanctioned more than 400 people and entities going back to the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014.

    鈥淪anctions never work and sanctions never will be able to work against such countries, such [a] nation as Russia. The attempts to use sanctions as a threat in order to make Russia do certain steps on the international area is just an illusion,鈥 Ambassador Oleg Stepanov said Thursday on CTV鈥檚 Power Play. 鈥淎ctually, in Russia, and the Russian government, and I can tell you frankly, nobody cares about Western sanctions anymore.鈥

    However confident the Russian ambassador appeared, assistant professor in international relations at the University of Waterloo Alexander Lanoszka said Russia does care about western sanctions.

    鈥淲ell they do care about sanctions because they鈥檝e built up a massive strategic reserve of currency designed to weather a new series of sanctions that western nations could mete out to Russia if it does go about an escalation against Ukraine,鈥 Lanoszka said on CTV鈥檚 Your Morning Friday.

    However, at this stage in the crisis with 100,000 Russian troops on the border, Lanoszka warned against overconfidence in what sanctions could achieve.

    鈥淥f course we should not expect too much from sanctions, sanctions in this case do raise the cost of aggression but they also assert red lines [and] they reinforce norms about territorial integrity,鈥 he said.

    While the membership of Ukraine in the NATO alliance is what Russia objects to, Lanoszka says there is much more at play.

    鈥淭here is a lot more behind it, so yes NATO membership in respect to Ukraine is certainly on the table for Russia and perhaps a core aim of theirs, but really they have emphasized other things including a rollback of all NATO measures put in place virtually since 1997 in eastern and central Europe,鈥 Lanoszka explained. 鈥淏asically depriving any country who joined the alliance of any political or military support that they have received, so those are very expansive aims and really non-starters for the organization.鈥

    When asked if sanctions could prevent any further military action on Russia鈥檚 part, Lanoszka was non-committal.

    鈥淧erhaps not, I would say that sanctions are not very effective at this stage of the crisis because Russia has discounted the cost associated with sanctions, they鈥檝e gone this far into the crisis, they鈥檝e built up military forces, they know that certain actions on their part will trigger a response,鈥 he said. 鈥淎nd they鈥檝e discounted those costs already 鈥 that鈥檚 not to say we shouldn鈥檛 be imposing sanctions鈥 but it goes to show that we are very deep into this crisis.鈥

    Lanoszka theorized that any further incursion or invasion of Ukraine by Russia may not materialize as feared, with a large scale force moving in.

    鈥淲e really don鈥檛 know [what it will look like], but it鈥檚 important to emphasize that invasion may not mean permanent occupation,鈥 he said. 鈥淚t could be the case that Russia launches limited strikes against Ukraine鈥檚 military assets, it could hold some territory to force Kyiv to capitulate or submit to certain demands made by Moscow鈥 the range of possibilities is fairly large, I think though the most likely military option Russia would use if it decides to use force would be something in the order of limited military strikes.鈥

    ---

    With a file from CTVNews.ca鈥檚 Ottawa bureau Producer Sarah Turnbull 

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