As U.S. President Joe Biden faces a growing drumbeat of pressure to drop his reelection bid, a majority of Democrats think his vice president would make a good president herself.
A new poll from the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that about six in 10 Democrats believe Kamala Harris would do a good job in the top slot. About two in 10 Democrats don鈥檛 believe she would, and another two in 10 say they don鈥檛 know enough to say.
Since Biden鈥檚 debate debacle on June 27, many Democrats have privately and even openly looked to Harris to step in and succeed Biden as the party鈥檚 presidential nominee, believing she has a better chance against GOP nominee Donald Trump. For her part, Harris has remained completely loyal to Biden, being one of his toughest defenders in the aftermath of the disastrous debate performance.
Oakley Graham, a Democrat in Greenwood, Mo., said while he is 鈥減retty happy鈥 with Biden鈥檚 accomplishments in office, he felt that he would be more excited to support Harris at the top of the ticket and that it was 鈥渁bout time鈥 a woman becomes president.
鈥淚 know he鈥檚 got unfinished business,鈥 Graham, 30, said of Biden. 鈥淏ut it would be nice to see a person of color, a woman, somebody younger to step up and to lead that charge. I would hope that that would inspire a younger generation to be more engaged.鈥
Black adults 鈥- a key contingent of the Democrats鈥 coalition and a group that remains relatively more favourable to Biden than others 鈥 are more likely than Americans overall to say that Harris would do well.
As for Americans more broadly, they are more skeptical of how Harris would perform in the Oval Office. Only about three in 10 U.S. adults overall say Harris would do well as president. About half say Harris would not do a good job in the role, and two in 10 say they don鈥檛 know enough to say.
Harris鈥 favourability rating is similar to Biden鈥檚, but the share of Americans who have an unfavourable opinion of her is somewhat lower. The poll showed that about four in 10 U.S. adults have a favourable opinion of Harris, while about half have an unfavourable opinion. There are more Americans with a negative view of Biden: approximately six in 10. About one in 10 Americans say they don鈥檛 know enough to have an opinion of Harris, whereas nearly everyone has an opinion on Biden.
About three-quarters of Democrats have a positive view of Harris, which is in line with how Democrats view Biden. Seven in 10 have a favourable view of him.
Shannon Bailey, a Democrat who lives in Tampa, praised Biden鈥檚 accomplishments as president 鈥- particularly with his infrastructure law and efforts to tame inflation --- and said he鈥檒l be 鈥渞emembered fondly.鈥 But she had a more favourable view of Harris than she does the incumbent president because, in Bailey鈥檚 view, the vice president appears more 鈥渃apable of handling the taxing nature of the job.鈥
鈥淚t鈥檚 not just the physical stamina part, but also the cognitive reasoning part right now,鈥 said Bailey, 34. 鈥淚t鈥檚 important to be able to concisely and persuasively get the message across that is the Democratic platform right now.鈥
Bailey said the Democratic Party needs Harris and a running mate 鈥渨ho can really motivate people to go out to the polls鈥 鈥 a task that she鈥檚 skeptical Biden can do as effectively.
Harris鈥檚 position as the administration鈥檚 lead messenger on abortion also has endeared her to many Democrats.
鈥淚 think she would be a very strong advocate for abortion, has been and would continue to be,鈥 said Thomas Mattman, a Democrat from Chico, Calif. 鈥淭he Republicans have gone with white men as their ticket, and both of them have said some pretty specific things about being opposed to abortion so I think that would be a very strong argument.鈥
Mattman, 59, said he believes Biden will not be able to defeat Republican nominee Donald Trump 鈥 a prospect that leaves Mattman 鈥渧ery distraught.鈥 Harris would be a much more effective candidate because Biden is unable to 鈥減ut pressure鈥 on his opponent and exploit his weaknesses, Mattman said.
Harris is more popular among Black Americans than she is among white or Hispanic adults. She is more disliked by men than she is by women.
Other prominent Democrats who have been floated as potential replacements are less known than Harris is. About four in 10 U.S. adults don鈥檛 have an opinion of California Gov. Gavin Newsom, and half are unfamiliar with Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Newsom is seen, overall, slightly more negatively than positively. Americans are divided about evenly on Whitmer: 24 per centhave a favourable view and 22 per cent have an unfavourable view.
More Democrats see Harris rather than Newsom or Whitmer as someone who would make a good president, though that's partly because they're relative unknowns. About one-third of Democrats say Newsom would make a good president, and half don鈥檛 know enough to say. About one-quarter of Democrats say Whitmer would do well, and about two-thirds don鈥檛 know enough to say.
Trump鈥檚 running mate, Senator JD Vance of Ohio, is unknown to most Americans. In the AP-NORC poll, which was conducted before Trump made Vance his vice presidential choice, six in 10 Americans don鈥檛 know enough about him to form an opinion. About two in 10 U.S. adults have a favourable view of Vance, and about two in 10 view him negatively. Among Republicans, 61 per cent don鈥檛 know enough to have an opinion of Vance. About one-quarter have a positive view of him, and roughly 1 in 10 have a negative view.
The poll of 1,253 adults was conducted July 11-15, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC鈥檚 probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
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