麻豆影视

World

    • 'In a very dangerous place': Why one expert says the Russia-Ukraine crisis won't be a traditional war

    Share

    As western governments and intelligence services attempt to figure out what comes next amid growing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, whatever escalation materializes is unlikely to be a traditional war, says one Canadian expert.

    While diplomatic channels are flowing back and forth to prevent what the U.S. characterized as a possible imminent invasion of Ukraine by Russia, many questions remain about Moscow鈥檚 next steps.

    The Biden administration and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) informed Russia on Wednesday there would be no concessions on their demands in the quest to cool the current crisis. On the same day, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canada will extend Operation UNIFIER, the Canadian Armed Forces training and support mission in Ukraine, for another three years and with an additional 60 personnel.

    Russia鈥檚 Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov said in rebuttal that the U.S. and NATO鈥檚 formal response does not address Russia鈥檚 main concern about the alliance鈥檚 expansion eastward, but that it gave hope for 鈥渢he start of a serious conversation.鈥

    But despite thousands of troops and tanks amassed along Ukraine鈥檚 borders, Royal Military College and Queen鈥檚 University security analyst Christian Leuprecht told CTVNews.ca in a telephone interview Thursday that any escalating conflict won鈥檛 resemble a traditional war.

    鈥淲e鈥檙e dealing with a leader who assassinates people on foreign soil, who gratuitously carries out many vicious cyber attacks on other countries, who violates basic norms of international law,鈥 Leuprecht said of Russian president Vladimir Putin. 鈥淭his is why I don鈥檛 think there will be a formal declaration of war, because that would mean they would actually need to play by the rules.鈥

    鈥淒eclaring war triggers a host of international obligations, including the application of the Law of Armed Conflict and the UN Declaration on Human Rights,鈥 Leuprecht said in a follow-up email to CTVNews.ca. 鈥淧utin is unlikely to declare war precisely because time and again has been intent on eschewing his international obligations.鈥

    Leuprecht said Russia 鈥渂anks on a grey zone conflict,鈥 where combatants operate under a certain threshold of aggression to avoid outright war being declared and the various human rights obligations that come with it.

    Leuprecht said there may be an invasion of some kind, but it would most likely follow theories from U.K. intelligence that suggest a smaller operation to install pro-Russian Ukrainians in government.

    鈥淭hey'll stage a counter-revolution in Kyiv using their GRU intelligence operatives that are already embedded in across all the Ukrainian institutions,鈥 he said, characterizing them as 鈥渄eeply beholden鈥 to Russian intelligence and 鈥渄eeply compromised.鈥

    鈥淭o stage a counter-revolution, you'll probably need to draw away security assets from Kyiv centre, and stage all sorts of border skirmishes across the country.鈥

    鈥淭hen he'll [Putin] send in special ops into Kyiv to install a new government鈥 think everybody's looking for the war that Putin never intends and the war that isn't going to come. This is going to be a quick and dirty counter-revolution. The troops around the borders are sort of an insurance policy in case things don鈥檛 go as planned.鈥

    Leuprecht cited has been denied vigorously by the Russian government, with Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova calling it 鈥渄isinformation spread by the British Foreign Office.鈥

    CTVNews.ca asked the Canadian Security and Intelligence Service (CSIS) whether Leuprecht鈥檚 theories align with its assessments of the situation in Ukraine. In an emailed statement, a spokesperson said that CSIS doesn鈥檛 鈥減ublicly comment, or confirm or deny the specifics of our investigations, operational interests, methodologies or activities, in order to maintain the integrity of our operations.

    鈥淐SIS works closely with its domestic and international partners on understanding the threat environment so that it is positioned to provide assessments and advice to the Government of Canada,鈥 the statement said.

    THE NATURE OF WAR HAS CHANGED

    The advancement of technology in the past decade has seen the implements of war change drastically from the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, and Leuprecht said Canadians鈥 mindsets about military conflicts abroad also need to change in light of the Ukraine-Russia crisis.

    鈥淭hey think a conflict in Ukraine is thousands of kilometres away, we鈥檝e had this mentality since the end of World War Two that in North America, you鈥檙e safe and thousands of kilometres away from the troubles of the world,鈥 he said. 鈥淲e talk about generations of warfare, we think warfare was people in trenches and it was military shooting at each other.鈥

    Leuprecht said the essence of the changes in warfare can be boiled down to this: 鈥渢he line between the military and civilians has become ever more blurred鈥here is no middle ground, we are on the front lines of this conflict.鈥

    鈥淵ou and I are on the front lines when I receive an email from the associate deputy minister cautioning all members of national defence about Russian cyber activity and to be vigilant not just on our defence networks but on all of our online interactions, our personal emails,鈥 he said, citing the recent bulletin from the Canadian Centre for Cyber Security warning operators of critical infrastructure in Canada of Russian cyber threats.

    When asked about allegations from anti-war factions that the bulletin feeds into 鈥淩ed Scare鈥 hysteria or the perceived threat posed by Communism or former Communist countries to western nations, Leuprecht said the notice has to be looked at in two ways.

    鈥淥ne is that the CSE has a good intelligence relationship with large corporations, with the provinces and so forth, what鈥檚 more difficult for them is to reach the small and medium sized enterprises and quasi-public entities like hospitals, health authorities and public transit systems鈥his is a way to communicate in a wholesale fashion,鈥 he said, characterizing it as a pre-emptive and preventative measure.

    On the other hand, Leuprecht said sending the bulletin is also a signal to Moscow.

    鈥淚t鈥檚 also a signalling exercise to the Russians that we know what you鈥檙e on about, we鈥檙e tracking you, we鈥檙e watching you and you don鈥檛 stand a chance,鈥 he said, adding that while western countries have been 鈥渆xtremely reticent鈥 to deploy cyber measures, the capabilities of the U.S. and the Five Eyes are formidable enough to 鈥済ive the Russians a run for their money.鈥

    However, Leuprecht warned that the current crisis 鈥渋sin a very dangerous place.鈥

    鈥淭his can quickly get out of hand, anybody who thinks that we can contain this conflict to Ukraine is clearly delusional, this is a very dangerous game,鈥 he said.

    CTVNews.ca Top Stories

    Two nephews of the beloved Harry R. Hamilton share stories about his life and legacy.

    The union representing some 1,200 dockworkers at the Port of Montreal has overwhelmingly rejected a deal with their employers association.

    Canada

    • Two nephews of the beloved Harry R. Hamilton share stories about his life and legacy.

    • The union representing some 1,200 dockworkers at the Port of Montreal has overwhelmingly rejected a deal with their employers association.

    • A man who was critically injured in a police-involved shooting in Hamilton late Sunday afternoon has died in hospital, says the province鈥檚 police watchdog.

    World

    Politics

    • Murray Sinclair鈥檚 family members say the late justice and senator has been laid to rest according to his wishes.

    • Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced voters in Cloverdale鈥擫angley City will pick their next member of Parliament on Dec. 16.

    Health

    Sci-Tech

    Entertainment

    Business

    Lifestyle

    Sports

    Autos

    Local Spotlight

    For the second year in a row, the 鈥楪ift-a-Family鈥 campaign is hoping to make the holidays happier for children and families in need throughout Barrie.

    Some of the most prolific photographers behind CTV Skywatch Pics of the Day use the medium for fun, therapy, and connection.

    A young family from Codroy Valley, N.L., is happy to be on land and resting with their newborn daughter, Miley, after an overwhelming, yet exciting experience at sea.

    As Connor Nijsse prepared to remove some old drywall during his garage renovation, he feared the worst.

    A group of women in Chester, N.S., has been busy on the weekends making quilts 鈥 not for themselves, but for those in need.

    A Vancouver artist whose streetside singing led to a chance encounter with one of the world's biggest musicians is encouraging aspiring performers to try their hand at busking.

    Ten-thousand hand-knit poppies were taken from the Sanctuary Arts Centre and displayed on the fence surrounding the Dartmouth Cenotaph on Monday.

    A Vancouver man is saying goodbye to his nine-to-five and embarking on a road trip from the Canadian Arctic to Antarctica.

    • Weather watchers were treated to an exceptionally rare display on Friday evening as rare cloud formations filled Vancouver skies.

    • For some shoppers it was Nov. 1, but for others the first hints of Christmas - saccharine treats, festive-fragranced candles and gaudily wrapped gift sets - were being noticed in stores long before the final Halloween decor had been cleared.

    • Thousands of people are expected to gather in downtown Vancouver on Monday to observe the city鈥檚 100th Remembrance Day ceremony.

    • Toronto is expected to see an economic boost to the tune of nearly $300 million thanks to Taylor Swift鈥檚 upcoming Eras Tour, which will be making a stop in Canada鈥檚 largest city for a six-show run later this month.

    • One man was transported to hospital early Monday morning after a stabbing in the northwest end of the city, Toronto police say.

    • Calgarians will be observing Remembrance Day at a number of different ceremonies across the city, including at the Hangar Flight Museum.

    • A home in the northeast Calgary community of Saddle Ridge was damaged in a fire on Sunday.

    • WEATHER

      WEATHER

      Conditions were warm early Monday and expected to remain that way for most of the day.

    • WATCH LIVE

      WATCH LIVE

      CTVNewsOttawa.ca looks at Remembrance Day ceremonies in Ottawa.

    • After months of controversy surrounding a dog park in Ottawa's west end, a solution has been reached to divide the park in half.

    • With fewer interments and rising maintenance fees, the money for Canada's largest military cemetery will run out in three to four years.

    • The employers association at the Port of Montreal locked out nearly 1,200 longshore workers, bringing a halt to traffic at the port.

    • Though most businesses are expected to be open on Remembrance Day, there are some establishments that will be closed to commemorate the holiday.

    • LIVE @ 10:45 A.M. MT

      LIVE @ 10:45 A.M. MT

      Monday is Remembrance Day, a time to honour armed forces members who have died in the line of duty.

    • WEATHER

      WEATHER

      This is shaping up to be one of the warmest Remembrance Days in the past decade, at least, for temperatures.

    • Maritimers will stop Monday to remember those who have served, and continue to serve, in Canada's armed forces for Remembrance Day.

    • A Cape Breton senior recalls her life in German-occupied France, and her mother鈥檚 death, during the Second World War.

    • Thousand of people gathered at the Menin Gate in the Ypres, Belgium for Monday鈥檚 Remembrance Day Ceremony.

    • Remembrance Day is today, and a number of ceremonies are taking place around the province to honour those who gave their lives to serve our country.

    • A pillar in Canada鈥檚 history was honoured in Winnipeg Sunday afternoon, with thousands showing up to pay tribute to the life and legacy of the late Murray Sinclair.

    • Winnipeg police have identified two men involved in a stabbing incident earlier this week.

    • There will be two ceremonies taking place in Regina for Remembrance Day, hosted by the Royal Canadian Legion.

    • Regina author Valerie Crowther is celebrating the release of her book 鈥榃ar Letters: Linking Lives in the Second World War.鈥

    • It was a somber day at Mosaic Stadium as members of the Saskatchewan Roughriders officially cleaned out their stalls and closed the book on the 2024 season.

    • A team of tornado experts is heading to Fergus, Ont. after a storm ripped through the area Sunday night.

    • People across Canada will pause to reflect Monday at Remembrance Day Ceremonies across the country.

    • Saskatchewan RCMP are searching for a suspect after a man was seriously injured in a farm-related incident in Montreal Lake.

    • It was a somber day at Mosaic Stadium as members of the Saskatchewan Roughriders officially cleaned out their stalls and closed the book on the 2024 season.

    • The Regina Rams claimed the Hardy Cup after a hard fought battle against the Saskatoon Huskies 19-14 on Saturday in the first all Saskatchewan U-Sports western conference final since 2002.

    • WATCH LIVE

      WATCH LIVE

      The events will start at 10:15 a.m. with a parade that forms up in front of the Delta London Armories, marches east on Dundas Street and turns north onto Waterloo Street to Dufferin Avenue, the west to the Cenotaph.

    • Emergency crews responded to the scene on Road 68/Highway 2 east of Thamesford around 7 p.m.

    • On Friday, the Sarnia Police Service (SPS) received a report of an alleged abduction in the area of Kathleen Avenue and Walnut Avenue.

    • Watch Live

      Watch Live

      Barrie residents will gather on Monday to honour Canada鈥檚 veterans and pay tribute to those who served and sacrificed for the country.

    • Environment Canada issued a weather alert for Barrie, Collingwood and surrounding areas, alerting residents about the wicked winds that are expected to pick up to 80 kilometres per hour in the afternoon hours.

    • A driver is facing multiple charges after a multi-vehicle collision on Highway 400 early Sunday morning.

    • WATCH LIVE

      WATCH LIVE

      Representatives of the Windsor Veterans Memorial Services Committee, military representatives, wreath bearers, government officials, and members of the public will attend the Cenotaph at City Hall Square for the outdoor service.

    • One person has been arrested after Chatham-Kent Police Service (CKPS) received multiple complaints about an alleged drunk driver.

    • More details have been released about a police investigation at the Ambassador Bridge that connects Windsor, Ont. and Detroit, MI.

    • Environment Canada says heavy rain and winds could cause power outages on Vancouver Island as an "intense" storm system is set to hit the B.C. coast Sunday.

    • Six deer were struck by vehicles in six different locations in a six-hour period on B.C. highways on Saturday, according to the transportation ministry.

    • The union for locked-out port workers in British Columbia says the BC Maritime Employers Association cut off talks in less than an hour Saturday, refusing to budge on a final offer that the union has so far rejected.

    • The emergency department at South Okanagan General Hospital in Oliver, B.C., will be closed for 31 hours this weekend, the second such closure in a week and the third since the start of November.

    • Police in Kamloops, B.C., are reminding parents and guardians to check their children's Halloween candy after receiving a report of a mother finding a razor blade in one of her daughter's treats.

    • More than two years after Alannah Brown and Douglas Barker were found dead north of Penticton, police are asking for help identifying a vehicle they believe was associated with the crime.

    • The Southern Alberta Recreation Association is officially announcing the Town of Taber as next year鈥檚 host for the Southern Alberta Summer Games.

    • The Lethbridge Hurricanes broke open a close game with three goals in the first two minutes of the third period as they defeated the Warriors 7-3 in a game played Friday night in Moose Jaw.

    • There might not a lot snow just yet, but many southern Albertans are still itching to get outdoors.

    • It was just days before the COVID-19 pandemic shut the world down when the Shaft Bottom Boys of Sudbury broke a world record for 'Deepest Concert Underground.' Now, more than four years later, a Timmins band is looking to take the title.

    • Police have arrested a 15-year-old in connection with a break-in and $50,000 in damage done to the Centennial Arena in Elliot Lake in September.

    • Mayors of the five largest cities in northern Ontario met in North Bay the last two days to discuss a range of critical issues impacting their cities and the region.

    N.L.

    Shopping Trends

    The Shopping Trends team is independent of the journalists at 麻豆影视. We may earn a commission when you use our links to shop.聽Read about us.

    Stay Connected
    Follow 麻豆影视