Forget sabotage or missile attacks 鈥� a combination of bad weather, pilot error and 鈥渟omething very sudden鈥� likely contributed to the loss of an AirAsia jetliner over the Java Sea, aviation experts say.
Karl Moore of McGill University says the loss of AirAsia Flight 8501 early Sunday is 鈥渁 bit perplexing,鈥� but the event is not linked to the loss of two Malaysian Airlines planes in separate incidents earlier this year. He says it鈥檚 far more likely that extreme weather contributed to the disaster.
鈥淚t鈥檚 quite different from the other two Malaysian planes that disappeared,鈥� He said it鈥檚 still early in the AirAsia investigation, but he predicts the aircraft鈥檚 black box flight recorder will eventually reveal the full cause of the plane disaster 鈥� once it鈥檚 recovered. 鈥淚t鈥檚 probably some kind of weather-related incident,鈥� he said.
Aviation expert John Cox also believes it won鈥檛 be long before investigators find the plane wreckage and black box.
鈥淚 do believe that it鈥檚 in the water and I do believe we鈥檒l find it, and I believe we鈥檒l find it in short order,鈥�
Lost contact
AirAsia Flight 8501 disappeared from radar with 162 passengers and crew onboard Sunday, during a flight from Indonesia to Singapore. The aircraft鈥檚 pilot last made contact over the Java Sea, when he requested permission to fly higher due to bad weather. That request was denied, and the flight was never heard from again.
Cox says the pilot made a routine request, and he鈥檚 not surprised that no further contact was made before the likely crash of the aircraft. Pilots are trained to prioritize flying the aircraft over contacting air traffic control, he said.
鈥淲hatever occurred to this flight occurred quickly, and the pilots were occupied doing things other than talking to air traffic control,鈥� a former airline captain and current CEO of Safety Operating Systems.
But Moore says it鈥檚 unusual that the pilot did not issue a radio or electronic distress call before the aircraft went down, especially because there would have been ample time to call for help in a disaster.
"It seems like something very sudden happened," Moore said.
Investigators are now searching for wreckage near the AirAsia flight鈥檚 last known co-ordinates. They suspect the aircraft sits at the bottom of the Java Sea.
Extreme weather
Moore and Cox both said bad weather alone is not enough to bring down an airplane. There are more than 100,000 safe flights a day worldwide, and planes regularly fly through bad weather without incident.
鈥淭his is the safest way to travel, and this is a highly unusual incident,鈥� Moore said.
Cox echoed those sentiments in describing air travel as the 鈥渟afest form of public transportation鈥� in human history.
鈥淲e fly in all weather, routinely, all over the world,鈥� Cox said. He says he鈥檚 spoken to other pilots who were flying over the Java Sea at about the same time as Flight 8501, and those pilots say conditions were typical of this time of year.
鈥淵es it鈥檚 monsoon season, yes there are lots of thunderstorms, but we fly here every day,鈥� they have told Cox.
Extreme weather and pilot error have combined to cause plane crashes in the past. On June 1, 2009, Air France Flight 447 crashed into the Atlantic Ocean with 288 passengers and crew onboard. The recovered flight recorder led investigators to conclude that ice buildup on the aircraft鈥檚 instruments and improper piloting led to the plane crash.
Moore says icing may have played a factor in the AirAsia accident as well.
Air France Flight 447 was cruising at about 11.5 kilometres above sea level when the pilot accidentally stalled the aircraft and it went down, according to the black box. The plane took about 3 minutes and 30 seconds to hit the water. No distress call was received during that time.
The AirAsia flight was at about 9.8 kilometres above sea level when the pilot last made contact, which suggests there would have been a window of at least a few minutes before it hit the water.
Another Malaysian air disaster
The AirAsia incident comes at the tail end of a year that saw two Malaysia Airlines disasters on separate occasions. Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down in a missile attack over Ukraine last July. Earlier in the year, Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 disappeared from radar over the Indian Ocean en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.
The Flight 17 wreckage was mostly recovered from rebel-held eastern Ukraine, and the passengers鈥� remains were also recovered.
However, the fate of Flight 370 remains uncertain.
AirAsia鈥檚 headquarters is situated in Malaysia, making this disaster the third to befall a Malaysia-based airline in 2014.
But Moore and Cox see no connection between the three incidents.
Moore called the loss of Flight 370 鈥渙ne of the great mysteries of aviation history.鈥�
Cox said Flight 17 was shot down under unique circumstances, and he sees no similarities between the disappearance of Flight 370 and the current situation with Flight 8501.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 find any common links at all,鈥� he said.
Indonesian investigators appear to be zeroing in on the location of the downed AirAsia flight. Search and rescue teams have located two oil slicks and bits of debris in the water, but they have not yet connected those signs to Flight 8501.
