How Trump and Biden鈥檚 climate change plans would impact Canada
Climate change is often described as the most urgent political issue of our time, and whoever wins the White House in November will have the power to lead the U.S. through a moment that many top environmental experts consider a tipping point in human history.
We have just 10 years left to limit global warming to 1.5 C, according to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Experts say any warming beyond that point would permanently damage our planet and lead to devastating droughts, disastrous sea level rise and kill nearly all the planet鈥檚 coral reefs.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden have offered dramatically different plans on climate change and the environment. Here鈥檚 a look at their platforms and how their victories would impact Canada and our planet at large.
TRUMP鈥橲 ENVIRONMENT PLAN
Trump has a history of acknowledging the existence of climate change while simultaneously casting doubt on environmental science. He鈥檚 called environmental advocates 鈥渉oaxsters鈥 and 鈥減rophets of doom鈥 and said he鈥檚 not convinced climate change is manmade. Once, on a particularly cold day in New York City, he tweeted, 鈥淲here the hell is global warming?鈥
As for his 2020 platform, Trump鈥檚 doesn鈥檛 lay out a plan so much as a list of 鈥渁chievements鈥 under the banner of 鈥渆nergy and environment.鈥 Most of the achievements are related to Trump鈥檚 efforts to make it easier for oil, gas and coal companies to do business in the U.S. and sell their products internationally.
At the top of the list of 鈥渁chievements鈥 is the fact that Trump signed an executive order to 鈥渆xpand offshore oil and gas drilling and open more leases to develop offshore drilling.鈥
Trump鈥檚 campaign also highlights his administration鈥檚 approval of the Keystone XL pipeline, which would transport oil from Alberta to the U.S., and the New Burgos Pipeline, a cross-border pipeline between the U.S. and Mexico.
Also making the list is Trump鈥檚 effort to scrap Barack Obama鈥檚 signature Clean Power Plan, which aimed to reduce U.S. power sector emissions 32 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, and replace it with his own Affordable Clean Energy Rule, which would lower emissions by less than 2 per cent.
The words 鈥渃limate change鈥 and 鈥済lobal warming鈥 do not appear anywhere on the page. The word 鈥渃limate鈥 only appears once, in reference to Trump withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement. Trump said he pulled out because the agreement was costly and unfair to Americans.
References to climate change appear more regularly on Trump鈥檚 Twitter feed, where he has consistently retweeted supporters criticizing Biden鈥檚 environmental plan, which is repeatedly described as 鈥渞adical.鈥
BIDEN鈥橲 ENVIRONMENT PLAN
Biden鈥檚 environmental plan is starkly different from Trump鈥檚. In July, he released a $1.7 trillion 鈥淐lean Energy Revolution鈥 plan that would invest heavily in green technology and aggressively pursue making the U.S. power sector emissions-free by 2035.
Biden says his plan goes beyond Obama鈥檚 environmental platform and would ensure that the U.S. reaches net-zero emissions no later than 2050. On airline emissions, which make up about 2 per cent of global emissions, Biden vows to 鈥減ursue measures to incentivize the creation of new, sustainable fuels for aircraft, as well as other changes to aircraft technology and standards, and air traffic management.鈥
He has also vowed to recommit the U.S. to the Paris Climate Agreement and to encourage other countries to ramp up their own emissions-cutting goals.
On Keystone XL, Biden vowed early on that he would scrap the pipeline, calling it 鈥渢arsands we don鈥檛 need.鈥 Alberta has already invested billions into the project.
Whereas Trump boasts of creating more opportunities for the oil and gas sector, Biden says he would 鈥渢ake action against fossil fuel companies and other polluters who put profit over people and knowingly harm our environment and poison our communities鈥 air, land, and water, or conceal information regarding potential environmental and health risks."
Biden pitched his environmental plan as part of a coronavirus recovery mission, saying that the investments in green infrastructure will create much-needed jobs and help kickstart the slumping U.S. economy.
The Democrat鈥檚 climate plan is part of a broader campaign to woo younger and left-leaning voters, and it was drafted following recommendations from a joint task force involving Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who focused much of his failed campaign for the Democratic nomination on climate.
HOW CANADA鈥橲 AFFECTED
It鈥檚 hard to imagine two more divergent environmental platforms, according to Ryan Katz-Rosene, an associate professor at the University of Ottawa who researches environmental policy.
鈥淚 can鈥檛 emphasize enough what different worlds they鈥檙e advocating for,鈥 Katz-Rosene told CTVNews.ca in a phone interview.
Katz-Rosene says Trump鈥檚 stance on the environmental is 鈥渄estructive鈥 and 鈥渘on-sensical.鈥 Alternatively, Biden鈥檚 plan seems to convey the same ambitious language of the environmental movement and climate justice advocates.
鈥淭here鈥檚 always a big discrepancy between what a candidate proposes and what happens. Just because Biden has this ambitious, highly acclaimed plan doesn鈥檛 mean it will come to fruition,鈥 he said.
While climate change is a global issue, Katz-Rosene says both candidates鈥 platforms would have direct impact on Canadian policy and industries.
Since the U.S. left the Paris Climate Agreement, Canada has taken on more of a leadership role on the international stage to encourage other countries to cut emissions. If the U.S. were to rejoin the global pact under Biden, Katz-Rosene says Canada would likely have less of a voice in these discussions.
Biden鈥檚 promise to invest in green industries could also spur competition for similar investments north of the border. In particular, green hydrogen 鈥 a clean but costly alternative to fossil fuels 鈥 could see some healthy market competition, Katz-Rosene says.
鈥淚f the U.S. is pouring trillions of dollars into green tech, that changes the situation,鈥 he said.
"All of a sudden, Canadian producers of green hydrogen 鈥 they start saying, 鈥楴ow we need to ramp things up.鈥欌
This cross-border ripple effect could also affect Canadian policy, since the U.S. and Canada are already linked by CUSMA and other international agreements with environmental clauses. If Trump stays in power, he likely won鈥檛 be putting any pressure on Canada or other countries to do their part to fight climate change, Katz-Roese says.
鈥淎nd when one of the parties is checked out and doesn鈥檛 really care about it, it brings the other partner back as well,鈥 he said.
Climate Action Tracker, which monitors whether or not countries are on track to hit the Paris Agreement鈥檚 1.5 C goal, lists just one country 鈥 Morocco 鈥 as doing enough to hit the mark. Canada鈥檚 level of action is considered 鈥渋nsufficient,鈥 while the U.S. is considered 鈥渃ritically insufficient,鈥 a ranking behind China, India and Brazil.
Some environmentalists see the choice between Biden and Trump as a make-or-break moment in the fight against climate change. But Katz-Rosene doesn鈥檛 see it that way.
鈥淚nstead of a singular moment or 鈥榥ail in the coffin鈥 rhetoric, I view it as steps forward or backwards. And I think Trump鈥檚 government has taken many, many steps backwards and has slowed down our chances of mitigating climate change,鈥 he said.
鈥淨uite frankly, before Trump the chances weren鈥檛 great that we were going to meet the Paris Agreement targets鈥ut he sure doesn鈥檛 help the situation.鈥
