The chances of a white Christmas increase as you head north in Canada, with Yellowknife, Whitehorse and Iqaluit all but guaranteed to see some white stuff on the ground on Dec. 25.
But in the rest of Canada the odds are a lot slimmer, according to Dave Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment Canada.
"Right now if you were an odds maker I'd be betting a few loonies on the fact there will be a few more areas than last year that will be green rather than white this Christmas," Phillips told CTVNews.ca.
In order to qualify as a "white Christmas" there must be two centimetres of snow on the ground on Dec. 25.
Right now, in addition to White Horse, Yellowknife and Iqaluit, only Ottawa, Winnipeg, Regina and Edmonton have the requisite blanket of snow. And just barely.
Ottawa has two centimetres of snow, but with temperatures of 2 degrees Celcius expected on Thursday the city is likely to return to 'green' status in short order.
Winnipeg also has two centimetres, but that's a far cry from the 14 centimetres normally on the ground in the city that has a 98 per cent chance each year of having a snowy Christmas.
Regina has two centimetres of snow while Edmonton has five centimetres.
All of the Atlantic Canada provincial capitals, along with Quebec City, Toronto and Vancouver have no snow on the ground at the moment.
"For Canadians to see a guaranteed white Christmas at this stage they're going to have to go north," Phillips said.
However, he added that with two-and-a-half weeks to go before Christmas, a lot could happen.
"Weather can attack us from every direction," Phillips said.
"There could be some surprises, there are storms not even born yet that will give us snow before Christmas. But whether we get it is one thing, whether we can hold onto it is another."
While snow is predicted for later this week in Southern Ontario, warm weather and rain expected next week will likely melt it away before Christmas.
Even snowbelt areas of Ontario like London, which had 100 centimetres at this time last year, are currently bare. And in much of the west it's a similar story.
"Typically snows have already fallen in the west, they're there before Halloween and will be there for Easter. But my gosh we received record warm temperatures yesterday and the warmest day in Canada was in the Northwest Territories on Monday, 13 or 14 degrees," Phillips said.
Following is a list of the provincial capitals and their current snowfall amounts, with last year's amounts in brackets.
- St. John's, N.L.: Currently no snow (last year no snow)
- Charlottetown, P.E.I.: Currently no snow (last year no snow)
- Halifax, N.S.: Currently no snow (last year just a trace)
- Fredericton, N.B.: Currently no snow (last year no snow)
- Quebec City, Que.: One centimetre right now (22 centimetres last year)
- Toronto, Ont. Currently no snow (one centimetre last year)
- Winnipeg, Man.: Currently two centimetres (last year 23 centimetres)
- Regina, Sask.: Currently two centimetres of snow (last year 29 centimetres)
- Edmonton, Alta.: Currently five centimetres of snow (last year 16 centimetres)
- Victoria, B.C.: Currently no snow (last year no snow)
- Yellowknife, N.W.T.: 25 centimetres currently on the ground (18 centimetres last year)
- Whitehorse, Yukon: 15 centimetres on the ground now (20 centimetres last year)
- Iqaluit, Nunavut: 14 centimetres currently on the ground (17 centimetres last year)
In Canada's capital city, Ottawa, there were two centimetres of snow Wednesday, compared to seven centimetres last year.
Meanwhile, the organization AccuWeather was predicting that winter will begin in earnest in much of Canada in the new year.
Senior meteorologist Jack Boston told The Canadian Press that residents of Western Canada should hunker down for a colder winter than normal, while those in the Maritimes can expect a milder one.
Ontario and Quebec should expect heavy snowfall after Jan. 1, though temperatures won't be extremely cold.
Winnipeg will be the main dividing line, Boston said, in terms of colder temperatures in the west and milder temperatures in the east.
"I guess you could call it a mixed bag, but that's probably pretty typical of any winter in Canada -- one part of the country is going to end up having an easier winter than normal while another part of the country gets hit harder," Boston said.
"As you divide Canada into two pieces right around Winnipeg, east of there it's probably going to be a little less harsh than it usually is and west of that line it's going to be harsher than it is temperature wise."
In the Atlantic provinces, temperatures will be tamer than normal, but those in the Maritimes can expect a mix of rain and snow for the second half of the season.
In the Prairies, temperatures are expected to be cold, dry and windy for most of the winter with less snowfall than normal.
Alberta is expected to have a typically harsh winter and B.C. will get "notably" lower temperatures than normal, AccuWeather said.
"Western Canada is where you should be prepared for the extreme cold," Boston said. "We think temperatures are going to be below to much below normal this winter basically from the southern Yukon down through B.C., Alberta and into southern Saskatchewan."
