OTTAWA - It's all about the numbers election night, but one figure transcending partisan matters will be topping the minds of some observers: voter turnout.
It's the litmus test of political apathy and the rate has been inching steadily downward since 1988, save for a slight uptick last election. So this vote will be telling: is turnout truly on the rise or was the 2006 election a fluke?
It's hard to come up with a precise prediction because of any number of variables that can affect voter turnout, but University of Toronto political science professor Lawrence Le Duc believes the slow bleed will continue.
"If you could hold everything else constant and say there's nothing else that's changed, then you'd expect to see a decline of a per cent or two," he said.
The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance ranks Canada 77th in the world for voter turnout, with an average of 68.4 per cent over the last 17 elections. That's far ahead of the United States with an average of 48.3 per cent over 26 elections, but well behind Italy, at 92.5 per cent over 14 elections.
One of the factors that can affect turnout the most is the campaign itself. If voters are truly engaged by a neck-and-neck, no-holds-barred race, then turnout tends to increase, Le Duc said.
The hotly contested campaign in the U.S. appears to be just such a race. So when contrasted with the campaign south of the border, Canada's election so far seems headed for the status quo and therefore not piquing the interest of the Canadian public -- pooping puffins aside.
"This election is not shaping up as being exciting, because you have the Conservatives in government and the Conservatives leading in most of the polls," said Le Duc.
But to be fair, he said, people don't tend to get engaged in elections until after the debates -- which poses a problem of its own.
The English debate is set for Oct. 2, the same day as the vice-presidential showdown in the U.S., which Le Duc suspects will probably reduce the audience here as both the Canadian and American public clamour for a glimpse of right-wing darling Sarah Palin.
Another factor that may be conspiring to harm voter turnout is a new Elections Act rule, requiring voters to provide proof of identity. It could prove a challenge for some voters, particularly those on aboriginal reserves, which often don't have addresses.
Chief Electoral Officer Marc Mayrand said Elections Canada is working with band leaders and territorial authorities to provide letters to residents of aboriginal communities that could be used to verify residency at polling stations.
In addition to trying to reach aboriginal voters, Elections Canada is also targeting voters in remote areas and typically the most apathetic group of all: youth.
In the last election, about 44 per cent of Canadians aged 18 to 24 voted, up from about 39 per cent in 2004, which in turn was up from 2000, when only about 25 per cent of youth voted.
"We're certainly seeking to engage them and explain to them the voting process," Mayrand said. "We're seeking to make it as easy, as convenient and as simple as possible."
And what are the parties doing to boost turnout? Campaign officials for most of the parties said they're trying to make their platforms appeal to voters and therefore draw them to polling stations.
Green Leader Elizabeth May kicked off the campaign with a plea for Canadians to resist the lure of the American election.
There are more radical ways of increasing voter turnout, such as legislating mandatory voting, as is the case in Australia, but Elections Canada said it's not something they're considering, and Le Duc doesn't think that's the answer anyway.
"We tend to sort of blame ourselves and say, `Oh, what could we do?"' he said.
"But in the end, I think this is a trend that's sort of bigger than that and it's not something that's going to change all that easily just by making certain administrative changes in the way we manage elections or changing voting rules."
