An outbreak of a 'virtual plague' in a popular online video game may provide researchers with clues to how humans could behave in the event of real-life epidemics, according to researchers.
Two researchers from Rutgers University and Tufts University published a paper exploring the idea in the journal Lancet Infectious Diseases. These findings were based on the effects of the unforeseen consequences of an update to the popular online game "World of Warcraft."
"When we started thinking about it, it became more and more obvious that there were things that we could learn that we could really apply to the real world," said Nina Fefferman, mathematical ecologist with Tufts University in Boston and Rutgers University in Piscataway, co-author of the paper.
The impetus for the study began when developers at Blizzard Entertainment, the company that produces the "World of Warcraft," released an update to the "multiplayer online role-playing game" in September 2005.
This development allowed the most advanced players to advance to a higher level. In this higher level of the game -- an area called Zul'Gurub -- players were succeptible to being infected with a "corrupted blood" disease by a winged serpent foe named Hakkar.
"(The disease) was just never intended to get out of that region or away from that monster and affect lower-level players," Fefferman told CTV's Canada AM.
However, it spread to other regions when advanced players were teleported back to lower levels of the game. The "corrupted blood" disease began to spread to the lesser-skilled players, having often fatal effects.
In contrast, the "corrupted blood" disease proved only to be a minor inconvenience for the advanced players. Regardless, the effect of the epidemic became so extensive, it permeated the gaming experience.
"It spread a lot like a real-life outbreak would in urban centres of the game," Fefferman said.
This unintentional development triggered a number of different behaviours in the players. Some players tried to save the lives of others, some actually chose to spread the disease, and some decided that in the wake of the "corrupted blood" outbreak, they would flee to other cities within the virtual world.
"What's cool about this outbreak is that we're able to actually watch how people made those behavioural decisions for themselves instead of having to assume them," Fefferman said.
Studies of this type rely heavily on mathematical equations to assume the behaviour of individuals and consequently, accuracy can be compromised.
Fefferman believes that studying online gaming behaviour in conjunction with the traditional mathematical equations, could provide more accurate insights into how humans could act in the real-life possibilities of malaria and bird flu epidemics.
Through further study of 'virtual plagues,' researchers may be able to determine whether people will actually maintain their regular social contacts, obey curfews and respect quarantines - behaviours that will criticially influence the spread of any disease.
While Fefferman acknowledges that players may engage in riskier behaviour in a virtual world than they would in real life, they would factor this into their studies.
"Basically, I believe this is the next evolutionary step in infectious disease modelling, and this step must be realized as soon as possible, by epidemiologists joining forces with the game industry," Ran Balicer, epidemiologist at the faculty of health sciences at Ben-Gurion University in Negrev, Israel told the Canadian Press.
Researchers believe that by using data collected from similar online gaming scenarios, they will be able to bridge any gaps between the mathematical equations and how people will actually react in the real world.
As the overall effect of the "corrupted blood epidemic" was unplanned, Fefferman said data that could have provided even further insight into human behaviour was not maintained by Blizzard Entertainment.
The company was understandably focused on actually repairing the problem in the game and its effects on the 6.5 million participants, by implementing quarantines in their efforts to control the spread of the epidemic.
The company eventually overcame the problem by resetting computers. However, Fefferman plans to build on the findings of behaviour observed in the "corrupted blood" epidemic in "World of Warcraft" in future studies and is in discussions with Blizzard Entertainment for this very purpose.
"We're hoping that in the future we'll be able to work with game developers and actually plan some in-game events and then actually record all the data for scientific analysis," Fefferman said.
