A surprise announcement by Prime Minister Stephen Harper to investigate new and troubling allegations into the so-called Mulroney-Schreiber affair has led to a dip in Tory Government support, a new poll shows.
A Strategic Counsel poll conducted between Thursday, Nov. 8 and Sunday, Nov. 11 for CTV and The Globe and Mail has found the Conservatives and Liberals are neck-and-neck nationally -- each with 32 per cent support.
A Strategic Counsel poll in October had the Tories leading the Liberals 34 to 29.
Much of the damage to the Conservatives occurred in the crucial election battleground of Ontario, where their support dipped four per cent since October, to 29 per cent. Quebec also saw a three-point dip in Tory numbers to 23 per cent.
Meanwhile, the Liberals have made considerable gains in Ontario, at the expense of the NDP.
Liberal support spiked seven points to 47 per cent in the province, while the NDP slipped five points to 12 per cent after reaching a peak in support at 17 per cent in August.
Support for the Liberals increased immediately after Harper announced an independent body would review an affidavit filed by embattled German businessman Karlheinz Schreiber, who is currently in jail fighting extradition to Germany on charges of fraud, bribery and tax evasion.
In a sworn affidavit, Schreiber added new allegations to a dispute over cash paid to Mulroney after he stepped down as prime minister.
At the conclusion of polling on Sunday, the Liberal numbers were up nationally by three percentage points from the previous poll in October.
"This poll indicates that the government will need to manage the Mulroney file carefully in order to retain the high ground on accountability and transparency," the survey concludes.
In the affidavit, Schreiber alleges that discussions he had with Mulroney about a $300,000 cash payment took place one day before the former prime minister retired from office.
Schreiber says he informed the Harper government of these allegations seven months ago -- allegations that have not been proven in court.
The prime minister says he wasn't aware of the allegations and he immediately called a probe after Schreiber filed the affidavit.
But the opposition parties pounced on the Tory government. Liberal Leader Stephane Dion told CTV's Question Period on Sunday that he finds it "very hard to believe" that the prime minister only found out last week about details of the business dealings between Mulroney and Schreiber.
On Monday, Liberal MP and public works critic Mark Holland suggested there was a cover-up.
"People are very upset that Mr. Harper has not taken decisive action and sat for a couple of weeks on this explosive information around Mr. Mulroney and Mr. Schreiber," Holland told 麻豆影视. "They seemed more interested in covering it up."
Tim Woolstencroft, a managing partner with The Strategic Counsel, told CTV.ca that anytime the Conservatives come under the microscope, the Liberals stand to benefit.
"When the Conservatives hit a bump in the road, the data suggests the Liberals are the default opposition party to the government," he said. "If a voter is interested in defeating the government, they're going to have to align themselves with the Liberals."
However, the opposite is true for the NDP, he said, simply because the Liberal brand has been consistently strong in Ontario.
Woolstencroft said if the Conservatives hope to gain some ground in Ontario and Quebec, Harper will have to portray himself as more of a moderate, progressive leader. The government's recent tax cut announcement does little to sway voters, Woolstencroft said.
"Things like tax cuts always seem to have the least impact on party fortunes," he said.
Senate reform
While the NDP's numbers have dipped, it doesn't appear the party's position on senate reform has hurt their support or that of the Conservatives, who backed the idea.
In fact, the data suggests one in two Canadians are open to having a debate on the merits of keeping the Senate. However, the poll also shows voters are hesitant to abolish the Senate altogether. Only 46 per cent of people said they thought it was a good idea.
Last week, Harper backed NDP Leader Jack Layton's call to hold a nation-wide referendum on the abolition of the unelected Senate.
Support for the Senate's abolishment varied from province to province:
- Quebec showed strongest support at 63 per cent
- Ontarians were least supportive at 36 per cent
- Most BC residents, 44 per cent, support the idea
- Prairie residents are evenly divided -- 39 per cent support the idea while 42 per cent oppose it
Bloc Quebecois voters are the most likely to support the move at 75 per cent while 56 per cent of Conservative voters and 50 per cent of NDP voters support the idea.
The majority of Liberal voters, 55 per cent, are opposed to it.
The Liberal leadership
The survey also shows Canadians wouldn't mind seeing a change at the helm of the Liberal party.
Justin Trudeau, who officially entered politics as a Liberal candidate this year, is the most popular choice to replace current Leader Stephane Dion.
Trudeau received 40 per cent of national support, followed by Michael Ignatieff (25 per cent) and Bob Rae (23 per cent). Former leadership contender Gerard Kennedy trailed far behind at 11 per cent.
The poll concludes that among Liberal voters, however, support for Trudeau waned to 35 per cent, though he was still the most popular choice.
"Liberal voters have a lot more knowledge about the other candidates," said Woolstencroft. "They recognize Trudeau is a risky choice because of his age and inexperience. It's all a handicap going into an election."
Woolstencroft recognized that Trudeau does have his family legacy working for him.
"There's absolutely no question about it, his name is like gold," he said.
Technical notes
- The poll was conducted between Nov. 8 and 11 by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail.
- 1,000 respondents were sampled nationally, and the margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
- Results are based on tracking among a proportionate national sample of Canadians 18 years of age or older.
