Seat projection shows Tory gains

CTV麻豆影视

Tories projected to win seats in Ontario, B.C.

Andy Johnson CTV.ca News
Published Friday, September 26, 2008 10:18PM EDT Last Updated Friday, May 18, 2012 9:07PM EDT

Text:

Three weeks into the election campaign the Conservatives have made significant gains in key battleground ridings, almost entirely at the expense of the Liberals, according to a new seat projection released Friday.

The Battleground 2008 projection was conducted by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail. It looks at 45 ridings in B.C., Ontario and Quebec that have been tracked nightly since the start of the campaign.

In total, it finds the Conservatives would double their current standing to claim 32 of the 45 key ridings, if the projections hold.

The Bloc would claim nine, the New Democrats three and the Liberals would win just one of these Battleground ridings. The Green Party would remain shut out of the 45 ridings.

When compared with the parties' results in the 2006 election, the report finds the Conservatives would gain 16 seats while the Liberals would finish with 16 fewer than in the last election.

Here is the provincial breakdown, showing the potential change from the parties' 2006 finish.

British Columbia

Conservatives: +8
Green Party: n/a
Liberals: -6
New Democrats: -2

Ontario

Conservatives: +7
Green Party: n/a
Liberals: +8
New Democrats: +2

Quebec

Bloc: +1
Conservatives: +1
Green Party: n/a
Liberals: -2
New Democrats: no change

Peter Donolo, a partner with the Strategic Counsel, pointed out that while the numbers paint a fascinating picture of what could happen in the Oct. 14 election, they are a purely mathematical projection.

"No riding is created equal," he said, noting that the projection doesn't take into account the fact that, for example, Justin Trudeau is running in Papineau, which could increase the Liberals' chances of winning there.

Quebec disappointment?

The projections for Quebec, if they hold true, would come as a disappointment to Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, who has put a special focus on the province and has been stealing momentum from the Bloc until now.

According to the numbers, the Conservatives would gain no seats in Montreal, and only one outside of the island. The Bloc, meanwhile, would gain two new seats in Montreal to make a clean sweep of all six ridings on the island, stealing the Liberals' two Montreal seats.

The loss of ground in Quebec appears to be largely linked to tough opposition criticism that the Conservatives have slashed arts funding and are enemies of culture in the province.

However, Harper's message that average Canadians don't relate to the elite arts community may actually be resonating in parts of Ontario.

When broken down by area code, the projections for Ontario show a strong Conservative showing. In the 905 area code around Toronto, the Conservatives would steal three seats from the Liberals and one from the NDP, according to the projection.

In the 519 area code of Southwestern Ontario, the same situation would occur, with the Conservatives picking up three Liberal seats and one from the NDP.

Polling of the 905 showed the Conservatives up 9 per cent from 2006, while the Liberals are down 6 per cent.

In the 519 area, the Conservatives are up 5 per cent from 2006, while the Liberals are down 7 per cent.

When asked how they would vote if an election was held today, respondents in key battle grounds said the following in polling conducted on Sept. 23-24 (Difference from 2006 election in brackets)

British Columbia:

45 per cent would vote Conservative (+10)
26 per cent would vote Liberal (-7)
18 per cent would vote NDP (-9)
12 per cent would vote Green (+7)

Ontario:

45 per cent would vote Conservative (+8)
32 per cent would vote Liberal (-7)
15 per cent would vote NDP (-4)
9 per cent would vote Green (+4)

Quebec:

25 per cent would vote Conservative (+2)
21 per cent would vote Liberal (-7)
15 per cent would vote NDP (+7)
34 per cent would vote Bloc Quebecois (-3)
6 per cent would vote Green (+2)

Poll details:

The Strategic Counsel is pleased to present findings from three surveys of the Battleground Regions of Ontario (n=420), Quebec (n=405) and British Columbia (n=390)

Forty-five of the most hotly contested ridings from Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia comprise the Battleground 2008.

Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia were chosen because they possess the highest concentration of ridings where multiple Parties are likely to have the toughest competition.

In the Federal Election of 2006 and subsequent By-Elections, these forty-five ridings were home to the tightest races in the most populous provinces in the country.

The forty-five ridings consist of the 20 tightest races in Ontario, the 15 closest races in Quebec and the 10 tightest races in British Columbia from the 2006 Federal Election and subsequent byelections.

Results are based on random samples of adults 18 years of age or older in each of the 45 ridings constituting the Battleground 2008. Results were weighted by age to be proportionate to the provincial population sampled.

Data collection for this report was conducted between September 4th to 25th, 2008.

Sample size and margin of error:

British Columbia battleground ridings (Sept. 23-25) 390 (+-5%)

Ontario battleground ridings (Sep 20-25)

420 (+-4.8%)

Ontario ridings by area code

905 -- 207 (+-6.8%)

519 -- 165 (+-7.6%)

'Other' -- 311 (+-5.6%)

Quebec battleground ridings (Sept. 23-25)

405 (+-4.9%)

Quebec battleground ridings (Sept. 20-25)