The Conservatives made strong gains in key battleground ridings leading up to the election call, but voters are divided on whether they should trust the party with a majority government, according a new Strategic Counsel poll of tight ridings in three provinces.

The survey, conducted from Sept. 4-6 for CTV and The Globe and Mail, examined ridings 45 hotly-contested ridings in Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia.

In all three provinces, the Conservatives had a significant lead in the key ridings, with the most support in B.C. battleground ridings. The Green Party has also made gains (percentage-point change from 2006 election in brackets):

  • Conservatives: 45 per cent (+10)
  • Liberals: 25 per cent (-8)
  • New Democrats: 17 per cent (-10)
  • Green Party: 13 per cent (+8)

The Ontario battleground ridings show similar results, with the Liberals and New Democrats again bleeding votes to the Conservatives and Greens. But the Greens have made the most significant improvement in support, passing the NDP (percentage-point change from 2006 election in brackets):

  • Conservatives: 41 per cent (+4)
  • Liberals: 29 per cent (-10)
  • Green Party: 17 per cent (+12)
  • New Democrats: 13 per cent (-6)

In Quebec, the battleground ridings favour the Conservatives over the Bloc, while the Liberals have only fallen slightly (percentage-point change from 2006 election in brackets):

  • Conservatives: 32 per cent (+9)
  • Bloc Quebecois: 28 per cent (-9)
  • Liberals: 24 per cent (-4)
  • New Democrats: 11 (+3)
  • Green Party: 5 (+1)

Despite the strong lead the Conservatives hold in the 45 battleground ridings, roughly a third of the respondents said they were likely to change their support.

In Ontario, a total of 40 per cent said they were likely to switch their vote by Oct. 14, while 58 per cent not likely to change their minds.

Voters in the key B.C. ridings were less likely to switch, with only 31 per cent saying they would be open to supporting other parties. Sixty-six per cent said they would not likely switch.

In the Quebec ridings, 29 per cent said they may switch, while 66 per cent said they would likely not.

Respondents were more evenly divided on whether Conservative Leader Stephen Harper could be trusted with a majority government. They were asked if Harper was either "too right wing and controlling and has too much of a hidden agenda," or if he had shown "the kind of competent, decisive leadership" needed to hold a majority:

B.C. battleground ridings:

  • Too controlling: 42 per cent
  • Competent and decisive: 50 per cent

Ontario battleground ridings:

  • Too controlling: 45 per cent
  • Competent and decisive: 45 per cent

Quebec battleground ridings:

  • Too controlling: 48 per cent
  • Competent and decisive: 42 per cent

In the most recent nation-wide results, taken from a pre-election poll conducted from Aug. 25-31, the Conservatives had an eight-point lead:

  • Conservatives: 37 per cent
  • Liberals: 29 per cent
  • New Democrats: 17 per cent
  • Green Party: 9 per cent
  • Bloc Quebecois: 8 per cent

The Battleground 2008 Ridings:

British Columbia

Vancouver Quadra, Vancouver Island North, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, Fleetwood-Port Kells, Newton-North Delta, Burnaby-Douglas, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Richmond, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission, North Vancouver.

Ontario

Parry Sound-Muskoka, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, St. Catharines, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Brant, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Oakville, Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Huron-Bruce, London-Fanshaw, Ottawa-Orl锟絘ns, Simcoe North, London West, Barrie, Kitchener-Conestoga, Halton, Peterborough, Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, Burlington, Mississauga South.

Quebec

Louis-H锟絙ert, Ahuntsic, Beauport-Limoilou, Brossard-La Prairie, Papineau, Charlesbourg--Haut-Saint-Charles, Hull-Aylmer, Honor锟�-Mercier, Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot, Pontiac, Jeanne-Le Ber, Laval-Les 锟絣es, Gatineau, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Brome-Missisquoi.

The Strategic Counsel will be polling these ridings throughout the election campaign.

Technical notes:

  • The poll was conducted from Sept. 4-6 by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail.
  • The B.C. and Quebec battleground ridings both have a sample size of 450 people and the margin of error is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
  • The Ontario battleground ridings have a sample size of 480 people and the margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
  • Results are based on random samples of adults 18 years of age or older in each of the 45 battleground ridings. Results were weighted by age to be proportionate to the provincial population sampled.