The New Democrats have seen their support jump sharply in key battleground ridings in B.C., following recent campaign stops by Jack Layton in the province, according to a new Strategic Counsel poll.

The latest survey of 10 swing ridings in B.C., conducted from Sept. 7-9 for CTV and the Globe and Mail, shows the NDP gaining six points (percentage-point change from a Sept. 6-8 poll in brackets):

  • Conservatives: 36 per cent (-5)
  • New Democrats: 30 per cent (+6)
  • Liberals: 21 per cent (-2)
  • Green Party: 12 per cent (none)

In the past five days, the New Democrats have almost doubled their support in those 10 ridings. They started the campaign at just 17 per cent.

"There's a strong tradition of NDP support in British Columbia," the Strategic Counsel's Peter Donolo told CTV.ca on Wednesday. "What we're seeing is a strong revival among the traditional base -- lower-income women, and those with lower education."

Layton campaigned in Vancouver on Monday, telling supporters he was the politician of "real change" in a conscious nod to Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama. He slammed the Conservatives for failing to give effective tax breaks to middle-income Canadians.

Because the NDP seem to have had success in attracting women voters in the B.C. battleground ridings, Donolo said Layton had little choice but to back down on his preference for keeping Green Party Leader Elizabeth May from the televised debates.

"That's why it was very important for Layton to cut his losses on the exclusion of Elizabeth May," he said. "I think the optics were all wrong for him."

The New Democrats are considered a strong alternative to the Liberals in B.C.

Over the past decades, the federal Liberals have had a rocky time in the province, especially when the late Pierre Trudeau led the party. But the NDP has always enjoyed a strong base of supporters.

"The federal Liberal brand has not had the resilience in British Columbia over the last 50 years as it's had in some other parts of the country," said Donolo. "The footholds of the Liberal party in B.C. are a relatively recent matter, mostly established in 1993. For long stretches during the Trudeau years, no Liberals were elected from British Columbia."

In the 1980 election, Trudeau managed to secure 147 seats for the Liberals, but none of them came from B.C. When Jean Chretien won a strong majority government in 1993, the Liberals won six seats.

The poll looked at 45 battleground ridings in total, including 20 in Ontario and 15 in Quebec.

But while the Democrats made strong gains in the B.C. ridings, they failed to make any difference in support in the others. In Ontario, the Liberals managed to make a small, limited increase in support at the expense of the Greens (percentage-point change from a Sept. 6-8 poll in brackets):

  • Conservatives: 40 per cent (-1)
  • Liberals: 34 per cent (-3)
  • New Democrats: 16 per cent (none)
  • Green Party: 12 per cent (-2)

In the 15 Quebec battleground ridings, little has changed in the past few days (percentage-point change from a Sept. 6-8 poll in brackets):

  • Conservatives: 31 per cent (+1)
  • Bloc Quebecois: 31 per cent (-2)
  • Liberals: 22 per cent (+1)
  • New Democrats: 11 (none)
  • Green Party: 10 (-2)

The Battleground 2008 Ridings:

British Columbia

Vancouver Quadra, Vancouver Island North, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, Fleetwood-Port Kells, Newton-North Delta, Burnaby-Douglas, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Richmond, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission, North Vancouver.

Ontario

Parry Sound-Muskoka, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, St. Catharines, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Brant, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Oakville, Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Huron-Bruce, London-Fanshaw, Ottawa-Orl锟絘ns, Simcoe North, London West, Barrie, Kitchener-Conestoga, Halton, Peterborough, Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, Burlington, Mississauga South.

Quebec

Louis-H锟絙ert, Ahuntsic, Beauport-Limoilou, Brossard-La Prairie, Papineau, Charlesbourg--Haut-Saint-Charles, Hull-Aylmer, Honor锟�-Mercier, Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot, Pontiac, Jeanne-Le Ber, Laval-Les 锟絣es, Gatineau, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Brome-Missisquoi.

The Strategic Counsel will be polling these ridings throughout the election campaign.

Technical notes:

  • The poll was conducted from Sept. 7-9 by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail.
  • The B.C. and Quebec battleground ridings both have a sample size of 450 people and the margin of error is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
  • The Ontario battleground ridings have a sample size of 480 people and the margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
  • Results are based on random samples of adults 18 years of age or older in each of the 45 battleground ridings. Results were weighted by age to be proportionate to the provincial population sampled.