Academics have predicted that the dead could outnumber the living on Facebook within 50 years, raising serious questions about data rights.
has forecast that if no more users join Facebook, at least 1.4 billion members will die before 2100.
In this scenario, the dead could outnumber the living on the world鈥檚 largest social network by 2070.
If Facebook continues to expand at current rates, however, the number of deceased users could reach as high as 4.9 billion before the end of the century.
鈥淲e have concluded that hundreds of millions of dead profiles will be added to the network in the next few decades alone, and that the dead may well outnumber the living before the end of the century, depending on how global user penetration rates evolve,鈥� report authors Carl Ohman and David Watson, doctoral candidates at the Oxford Internet Institute, wrote in their conclusion.
鈥淭hese statistics give rise to new and difficult questions around who has the right to all this data, how should it be managed in the best interests of the families and friends of the deceased and its use by future historians to understand the past.鈥�
鈥淚f we鈥檙e not careful it may well be one or two tech companies controlling our data,鈥� Ohman told CTVNews.ca.
The predictions are based on data from the United Nations, which provides the expected mortality rate and population for every country distributed by age, and Facebook data scraped from the company鈥檚 Audience Insights feature.
鈥淭he management of our digital remains will eventually affect everyone who uses social media, since all of us will one day pass away and leave our data behind,鈥� Ohman said. 鈥淚t is, or will at least become, part of our global digital heritage.鈥�
Co-author Watson said there has never been such a vast archive of human behaviour and culture assembled in one place.
鈥淐ontrolling this archive will, in a sense, be to control our history,鈥� he said.
鈥淚t is therefore important that we ensure that access to these historical data is not limited to a single for-profit firm. It is also important to make sure that future generations can use our digital heritage to understand their history.鈥�
The pair鈥檚 analysis sets up two scenarios, arguing that the future trend will fall somewhere in between.
The first assumes that no new users will join Facebook after 2018.
In this scenario Asian users would account for nearly 44 per cent of Facebook鈥檚 deceased users at the end of the century. Nearly half of those profiles would come from India and Indonesia.
India is Facebook鈥檚 biggest single market with around 270 million users, surpassing the U.S. last year.
The second scenario assumes that Facebook continues to grow by its current user rate of 13 per cent annually, until each market reaches saturation.
Under these conditions, Africa would make up a growing share of dead users. Nigeria, in particular, becomes a major hub in this scenario, accounting for more than six per cent of the total.
By contrast, deceased Western users will account for only a minority of users, with only the U.S. making the top 10.
Ohman said Facebook has so far taken a Western approach to dealing with the deaths of its users.
He said Facebook has recently rolled out new features, including legacy contacts who can gain access to a deceased person鈥檚 account and curate it.
鈥淭his a more user-friendly and pro-active approach,鈥� he told CTVNews.ca.
Watson believes Facebook should invite historians, archivists, archeologists and ethicists to help curate the vast volume of data that users leave behind when they die.
鈥淭he results should be interpreted not as a prediction of the future, but as a commentary on the current development, and an opportunity to shape what future we are headed towards,鈥� Ohman explained.
鈥淔acebook is merely an example of what awaits any platform with similar connectivity and global reach.鈥�
The full paper, 鈥淎re the Dead Taking Over Facebook? A Big Data Approach to the Future of Death Online,鈥� can be read
