The Conservative government is preparing to table an economically apocalyptic estimate of the Kyoto Accord's implementation costs to Canada, 麻豆影视 has learned.
A leading Canadian environmentalist told The Canadian Press earlier Wednesday that she expects Environment Minister John Baird to present new research to say Canada can't meet its Kyoto commitment when he appears before a Senate committee on Thursday.
"We expect Mr. Baird to paint a picture of economic collapse if we comply with the Kyoto targets," said Louise Comeau of the Sage Centre, an environmental think tank.
She said the government has commissioned research based on assumptions that produce astronomical estimated costs.
Robert Fife, CTV's Ottawa bureau chief, is reporting the following details from the study, which he said has been backed by independent economists:
- The economy would shrink by 4.2 per cent if Kyoto is implemented. "It says it will cause a recession on par with the 1981-82 recession."
- Job losses will total 275,000 by 2009
- Electricity costs will jump by 50 per cent by 2010
- Gasoline costs will jump by 60 per cent almost immediately, and
- Home heating oil will double.
Baird told a House of Commons committee in February that attempting to meet Kyoto would be impossible and could lead to economic collapse.
However, a study released in late February by the group Friends of the Earth and Corporate Knights magazine put the cost of Kyoto compliance at $100 billion over four years, which they said would be about $20 per week for a family of four.
Kyoto calls for Canada to cut its greenhouse gas emissions to six per cent below 1990 levels by 2012. As of 2003, those emissions had increased by 27 per cent above 1990 levels.
The opposition parties banded together to pass a private member's bill calling on the government to live up to Canada's Kyoto obligations. The Senate is currently studying that bill.
If Canada doesn't meet its treaty obligations, it faces a 30 per cent penalty under the next phase of the Kyoto accord.
In addition, the opposition parties have forced the government to rewrite its Clean Air Act, which didn't even mention the word Kyoto.
Nathan Cullen, the NDP's environment critic, told CP that the Tories have shown no interest in putting the revised bill on the order paper for a vote.
Many observers think the bill will simply be allowed to die.
Fife said Prime Minister Stephen Harper will unveil the government's plan for GHG cuts next week.
CP reported Monday that the government's plan is to "stabilize" GHG emissions at 1990 levels by 2012.
In the longer term, CP reported Tuesday that the Tories would aim to cut GHG emissions by at least 45 per cent -- but using 2006 as a base year, and not 2003. Since emissions have risen since 2003, that represents a softening of the target.
Baird has said the government will adopt intensity targets, which require cuts in emissions per unit of production, but allow overall emissions to go up if production rises.
Environmentalists have blasted that approach, saying GHG emissions from sectors like Alberta's oil sands could rise dramatically.
The Pembina Institute, an Alberta-based environmental think tank, has claimed the oil sands could meet Kyoto targets for the cost of about one dollar per barrel of oil produced.
With files from CTV's Robert Fife and The Canadian Press
