An analysis by an environmental think tank has found what it says are significant holes in the Conservative government's greenhouse gas reduction plan for heavy industry.
"We've already said the overall targets fall short of Kyoto," Matthew Bramley, director of climate change for the Pembina Institute, told CTV.ca on Monday.
"There are also a whole host of questions about whether even these weak targets can be achieved."
He wasn't prepared to talk about motives on the government's part for why that might be so.
The institute's report, supported by other major environmental groups, starts by claiming the government's shifting of the baseline year to 2006 from the international standard of 1990 gives a "misleading impression of their adequacy."
Environment Minister John Baird announced on April 26 that Canada would seek to stabilize emissions by 2012 at the latest and then achieve a 20 per cent cut by 2020 -- from 2006 levels.
Canada emitted 747 megatonnes of GHGs in 2005. The 1990 level is 599 Mt.
Under the Kyoto Protocol, Canada is to cut its emissions by six per cent below 1990 levels by 2012.
The Tories' target for 2020 would be two per cent above 1990 levels and eight per cent above the Kyoto target. The government has said the Kyoto reduction wouldn't be achieved until 2025.
The European Union has promised a 20 per cent cut below 1990 levels by 2020 and is willing to commit to a 30 per cent cut if other nations follow suit.
Science shows that developed countries must cut their emissions by 25 per cent from 1990 levels by 2020 to stave off catastrophic climate change, the report said.
"When the government of Canada tells the world it intends to fall short of these requirements, it is sending one of three possible messages:
- "We do not accept the science of climate change,
- "We consider the severe impacts associated with more than 2 degrees Celsius of warming to be acceptable, or
- "Other countries will have to do more to make up for Canada doing less."
The government's plan for reaching even its 2020 target is dubious, Bramley said.
There are serious doubts the plan will result in emissions cuts by heavy industry, the government doesn't explain why it thinks other measures will work, and there is a chance for accounting errors in emissions reporting that would lead to cuts being overestimated, the report said.
"Some of the compliance options that companies can use to meet targets will not result in immediate emission reductions, and some may not result in any real emission reductions at all," it said.
One of the fastest-growing sources of emissions are the Alberta oilsands.
The report lists five ways in which the regulations treat the oil and gas sector more leniently than other industrial sectors.
The targets are intensity-based, meaning emissions are to be cut based on the unit production, and not a hard cap. As a result, there may be no actual reductions.
The oilsands plants are expected to cut their emissions intensity by 23 per cent between now and 2020.
But output is expected to quadruple. "The net result will be an approximate tripling of actual emissions in the sector," it said.
The report said the Liberals' Project Green plan, heavily criticized at the time and cancelled by the Conservatives after the 2006 election, would have provided 180 Mt in cuts by 2012 from heavy industry. The Tory plan would only lead to a 27 Mt cut by that time, in part because it doesn't start until 2010.
The institute believes GHG emissions could be regulated in a way that is fair to industry and helps Canada meet its Kyoto obligations.
Bramley also noted that heavy industry accounts for 45 per cent of emissions. While the Tories have programs in other areas that are supposed to reduce emissions, he noted there are no targets associated with them.
Other developments
Baird met Monday with provincial environment ministers, and Liberal Leader Stephane Dion and Prime Minister Stephen Harper jousted in the House of Commons over the upcoming G8 summit.
In Parliament's question period, Dion attacked the Tories over the looming climate fight.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper said Dion "never produced a plan that would meet the Kyoto target and when he was in government, never put one in place."
The Liberal plan tabled in April 2005 was a $10-billion effort designed to bring Canada into compliance with Kyoto between 2008 and 2012.
The Conservatives killed the overall program after taking office, but have revived parts of it under different program names.
"The leader of the opposition did ask a valuable question about the G8 communique," Harper said.
"In order to have post-2012 an effective international protocol, we need to have all major emitters -- including the U.S. and China -- as part of that effort. Canada will be working to have that consensus."
Baird told the Commons that Canada will support targets which the U.S. government has shunned.
The U.S. has balked at a communique that frames global warming as an urgent problem that requires steep cuts in GHG emissions.
Baird told Newsnet's Mike Duffy Live that Canada will be acting for the first time on reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
"I think the other G8 leaders will be excited to learn that Canada wants to lead all of them over the next 13 years," he said.
Bramley said that statement was simply wrong. Europe is far ahead of Canada.
Baird said there is no consensus among provincial environment ministers at their meeting earlier on Monday.
The federal government believes absolute reductions are the way to go, but it has to act in absence of that consensus, he said.
A number of ministers emerged from a closed-door meeting with Baird saying they were disappointed with the government for failing to set a hard cap on industries that produce greenhouse gas emissions.
"We need to see a national plan with national absolute caps ... in greenhouse gas emissions," said Ontario Environment Minister Laurel Broten.
"We also think we need to be in line with other jurisdictions and measure our program from a 1990 standard, which is the year of all international measurements."
With files from The Canadian Press
