LOS ANGELES - Everyone in Hollywood expects a big summer. The industry will get an idea of just how big come Friday, when "Spider-Man 3" opens a season laden with more potential blockbusters than the movie business has ever seen.
Will the third adventure of Tobey Maguire's web-slinger surpass the then-record US$114.8 million opening weekend for "Spider-Man" in 2002?
Will it rival last year's record-breaking $135.6 million weekend of "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"?
"There is no better way to start a summer than with a `Spider-Man' film," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box-office tracker Media By Numbers. "If you had to create a template for the perfect summer movie season, this is pretty much it."
Hollywood could have its first $4 billion summer, topping the record $3.95 billion haul from the first weekend in May through Labor Day in 2004. Factoring in higher admission prices, modern Hollywood's best summer for attendance came in 2002 with 653 million tickets sold, another record that could fall.
How well "Spider-Man 3" does will be a sign of how much Hollywood can expect from the onslaught of films to follow.
Two weeks after "Spider-Man 3" comes "Shrek the Third," with Mike Myers back as the voice of the crusty ogre in the franchise whose second installment is the highest-grossing animated film ever with $436.7 million domestically.
The next week brings the debut of Johnny Depp's "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End," following "Dead Man's Chest," last year's biggest hit with $423.7 million.
Previous installments in those three franchises account for three of the four biggest opening weekends ever ("Star Wars: Episode III -- Revenge of the Sith" was the other). And four earlier chapters -- "Shrek 2," "Dead Man's Chest" and the first two "Spider-Man" flicks -- are among the top-10 highest-grossing pictures ever.
Hollywood always schedules big leadoff batters in May, but the month has never packed three heavy-hitters like this. They could combine to lift Hollywood to its busiest Memorial Day ever, topping 2004's record of $246.2 million over the four-day weekend.
"You've seen three pictures in May do just tremendous business in the past, but I think with these three pictures, you're going to see numbers like you've never seen before," said Rory Bruer, head of distribution for Sony, which is releasing "Spider-Man 3." "Theatres are just going to be a happening place. They're going to be absolutely the place to be over Memorial Day weekend."
The question is how well the three movies can do against one another. "Spider-Man 3" has two full weeks without a major competitor, but "Shrek the Third" has just one week before the "Pirates" sequel sails in.
"Do we wish `Pirates' were on a different date? Absolutely," said Jim Tharp, head of distribution for Paramount, which is distributing DreamWorks Animation's "Shrek the Third." "But the market should be able to expand to take care of both movies."
Summer generally slacks off once the summer behemoths run their course. This season, the schedule barely lets up, with such sequels as "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix," "Ocean's Thirteen," "The Bourne Ultimatum," "Rush Hour 3" and "Evan Almighty," plus the animated comedies "The Simpsons Movie" and "Surf's Up."
While big new films arrive nearly every weekend, they often will be angling for different audiences. The family-friendly cartoon "Ratatouille" opens against Bruce Willis' action sequel "Live Free or Die Hard" one weekend, the sci-fi saga "Transformers" against Robin Williams' comedy "License to Wed" the next.
The teen girls' mystery "Nancy Drew" debuts opposite the superhero sequel "Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer," while Adam Sandler's comedy "I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry" premieres the same weekend as John Travolta's musical "Hairspray."
"The greatest part of this summer is the consistency of options we're offering," said Chuck Viane, head of distribution at Disney, whose films include the "Pirates" sequel and "Ratatouille." "Whatever you want to see on a given weekend will be in the marketplace."
Dan Fellman, head of distribution at Warner Bros., said he counts 18 to 20 movies this summer with potential to gross more than $100 million. Most summers might have 10 films with such prospects, he said.
The picture has changed wildly from two years ago, when Hollywood had its worst summer since the late 1990s, with attendance dropping 11.5 percent.
Studio executives said it was just an off year full of weak movies. Critics speculated that video games, home-theatre systems and other entertainment options were luring away movie crowds, but a solid rebound at theatres in 2006 and this year indicate otherwise.
"A few years ago, when the box office was in a little dip, many of us were talking about content, or the lack of it," said Fellman, whose Warner Bros. titles include the "Harry Potter" sequel and "Ocean's Thirteen." "It boils down to content. The way things lined up, it just all hit this year."
Still, the movie business is fickle. Revenues were surging a month ago, but Hollywood has stumbled through a few dreary weekends since then, the year's early gains now trimmed to a marginal 1.2 percent rise in attendance compared to 2006.
A few hits can turn a bad year into a good one, while a few misses can send a solid year into the dumps.
"The only cautionary note that should be in this whole thing is, there's always something that doesn't work," said David Tuckerman, head of distribution at New Line Cinema, which is releasing "Rush Hour 3" and "Hairspray." "So the question is, what isn't going to work?"
