There are indications that a Somali militant group believed to be holding two journalists, including a Canadian, may soon make a ransom demand, says a journalism organization official.
Tom Rhodes, Africa co-ordinator for the New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists, told CTV.ca on Monday that his sources say the militants are looking for a safe house to hold Amanda Lindhout and Nigel Brennan.
Once they have found such a place, it is believed they will make a formal ransom demand, he said.
But "no one really knows what's going on," Rhodes glumly added.
Lindhout, 27, is originally from Red Deer, Alta. Brennan, 37, is from Australia.
On Saturday, the two freelancers had travelled south of Mogadishu to a camp for people displaced by the fighting in Somalia's capital city.
Gunmen stopped and snatched them, along with their Somali translator and driver. Hotel staff became worried when they didn't return at their scheduled time.
The National Union of Somali Journalists said Sunday that the attack appeared to be premeditated.
Rhodes said media reports quoted one Somali Islamist leader saying his group had nothing to do with the abduction.
Background
The Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) has been battling for control of the country with the Ethiopia-backed transitional government.
However, the country has been without an effective government since 1991, although its troubles extend back into the 1970s. Canada had a "peacemaking" force in Somalia. But it became embroiled in scandal following the early 1993 torture and killing of a Somali citizen trying to steal from Canada's military base at Belet Huen.
The U.S. pulled its forces out of Somalia within six months of the famous October 1993 Battle of Mogadishu -- an incident that eventually formed the basis for the book and movie "Black Hawk Down." All United Nations peacekeepers pulled out by 1995.
Since them, Somalia has faced more fighting, economic collapse and a humanitarian crisis. Kidnappings, along with acts of piracy on the high seas off Somalia's coastline, are very commonplace.
Rhodes said there is no effective police force in Somalia, and the prospect of any other type of rescue is unlikely (the Battle of Mogadishu resulted from a botched attempt to snatch leaders of an anti-U.S. warlord).
He noted that Australia's Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has said the situation is incredibly delicate.
If a rescue isn't an option, that leaves a paying a ransom, "which of course perpetuates the problem," he said.
Executions rare
"On a positive note, they very, very rarely execute people they abduct," Rhodes said of the Somali militias. "(They're) usually held for just a week at a time before they're released."
French journalist Gwen Le Gouil was grabbed in the semi-autonomous Somali region of Puntland in December 2007. His kidnappers asked for a US$70,000 ransom, but negotiators secured his release without a ransom being paid, according to news reports.
Rhodes said another factor that helps Lindhout and Brennan is that the UIC wants to take control of the country. As a result, it wants to look legitimate in the world's eyes.
"So arbitrary killings aren't going to help their cause," he said.
Lindhout and Brennan are also helped by the fact they are foreigners, he said.
Somalia has been rated as the second-most dangerous country for journalists after Iraq. Former Ottawa resident Ali Iman Sharmarke was one of at least eight killed there in 2007. He returned to his homeland in 1999 to start a media company. A remote-detonated bomb blew up his vehicle about a year ago as he returned from the funeral of a murdered Somali journalist.
