MONTREAL - Action democratique du Quebec Leader Mario Dumont and his largely unknown crew of candidates have managed to claw their way into the mainstream of Quebec politics - though how long they'll stay there is another question.
Regardless of what happens in Monday's Quebec election, it is hard to deny that Dumont's ADQ has become a force to be reckoned with.
"If he elects 20 to 25 MNAs (members of the legislature), he becomes really entrenched as a mainstream political party," said Andre Lecours, a political scientist at Concordia University. "He becomes a party that can aspire to govern."
The ADQ had only five seats when the election was called on Feb. 21, but has turned the campaign into a tight three-way race.
Still, Dumont's journey from fringe-party leader to political prime time has been rocky and much could still go wrong for the ADQ's 36-year-old leader.
Dumont fired two candidates during the campaign, one for scoffing at violence against women and the other for suggesting Quebecers need to make more babies to avoid being overwhelmed by "ethnics."
The Liberals and the Parti Quebecois meanwhile have taken turns painting the ADQ as a bunch of political neophytes not fit to govern the province.
"We have a team," has been Dumont's repeated response. "It's been attacked and greatly underestimated, but it's full of people with skills and talent."
Many of Dumont's aggressive campaign strategies have come close to backfiring.
Brandishing an engineer's memo during the televised leaders debate, he accused Premier Jean Charest of hiding facts about an overpass collapse that left five people dead last fall.
"How could you so clearly neglect your responsibility?" Dumont said to Charest during the debate.
The move was panned by many in the media as a cheap shot, yet polls conducted after the debate suggested a bounce in ADQ support.
As the campaign wore on and ADQ support gradually appeared sturdier than originally thought, Dumont found himself the target of attacks from the Liberals and the PQ.
The ADQ has surged in the Quebec City area at the expense of the Liberals, and is threatening in several more rural ridings once thought to be PQ strongholds.
"Every society has a more conservative position - both socially and fiscally - and that was hidden in our two-party politics," said Lecours. "This time Dumont seems able to get these people out."
Many of Dumont's policies speak to the concerns of rural Quebecers and are behind comparisons to former premier Maurice Duplessis, who ruled the province for close to 20 years between 1936 and 1959.
A close friend of the ADQ leader suggested he is more of an amalgam of recent Quebec premiers.
"I think there is a little bit of (Robert) Bourassa also because he's a strategist," said the longtime friend and former Dumont aide, who asked not to be identified.
"At the same there is a side of him that is (Rene) Levesque because people feel close to him."
Dumont, who comes from a small town about 225 kilometres east of Quebec City, has done his best to encourage the comparisons with Levesque.
"We have the same burden of proof as Rene Levesque in '76," he said.
This kind of rhetoric has fed the perception of Dumont as a political outsider sticking it to the establishment.
"The other (parties) are so bland," Lecours said, pointing out that many Quebecers are dissatisfied with the current state of the province.
"There is a political market for (Dumont's) ideas," Lecours said. "I don't think its very big, but it's there."
Though it remains unlikely that the ADQ will find itself in power on Monday, there are a number of scenarios that would allow Dumont to brand the past month a success.
Among his most immediate goals is to win at least 12 seats in Quebec's 125-member legislature, which would give the ADQ official party status and make it eligible for additional government funding.
Of course, should Quebecers elect their first minority government since 1878, the ADQ could find itself playing the kingmaker.
But it could just as easily end badly for Dumont.
His popular support is spread across the province and won't necessarily win him a corresponding number of seats.
And even if the ADQ is able to significantly increase its seat count, Dumont will still have to prove his is a capable team and not just a bunch of one-hit-wonders.
