OTTAWA - Stephen Harper may be closing in on his coveted majority despite being plagued by a series of miscues and bad news during the first week of the federal election campaign.
A new poll suggests the Conservatives have opened up a commanding 15-point lead over the Liberals, with 41 per cent of respondents supporting the governing party.
Typically, 40 per cent is sufficient to win a majority of seats in the House of Commons.
According to The Canadian Press-Harris Decima survey, the Liberals stood at 26 per cent, the NDP at 14 per cent, the Greens at nine and the Bloc Quebecois at eight.
The poll suggests the Tories have gained ground among key voter groups that have eluded them in the past, and in every region of the country. They took a seven-point lead in Ontario, a 10-point lead in urban centres and a 13-point-lead among women.
"The Conservative momentum has been remarkable," said Harris Decima president Bruce Anderson.
All the more remarkable given that Harper was forced off-message repeatedly during the campaign's opening week. He was compelled to apologize for at least two gaffes by his officials and he flip-flopped on his opposition to including Green Leader Elizabeth May in the televised debates.
Moreover, the campaign kicked off amid more deaths of Canadian soldiers in Afghanistan, plummeting stock markets, soaring gas prices, fresh manufacturing layoffs, and dismal economic forecasts.
Anderson said the poll results suggest Harper's efforts to rebrand himself and his party as moderate have paid off -- at least so far.
"They've repositioned the party as a party of the centre or as a party that wants to govern from the centre . . . and they've repositioned Stephen Harper less as a firebrand ideologue and more as a decent, thoughtful, competent everyman."
The Tories' massive advertising campaign -- showing a sweater-clad Harper chatting warmly about his kids, his love of the North and his respect for veterans -- appears to have reassured wary voters, Anderson said. Harper has followed up the ads by being more relaxed and accessible on the hustings.
Anderson said Harper's swift response to gaffes by his campaign officials may have actually helped reinforce his new, softer image.
He's jettisoned the "uber-partisan, no-holds-barred, take-no-prisoners, make-no-apologies" approach in favour of quickly admitting mistakes and apologizing for them, Anderson said.
On Thursday, Harper immediately suspended party communications director Ryan Sparrow over a partisan swipe at a dead soldier's dad.
On Tuesday, Harper apologized for a sophomoric Tory website that showed an animated puffin pooping on Liberal Leader Stephane Dion.
In the past two elections, support for the Tories has dropped every time they appeared within range of a majority. Harper's challenge as he enters the second week will be to reassure voters who might still be spooked by the prospect of a Conservative majority.
If Liberals can't begin making an impression with voters, Anderson said the NDP could yet see its support increase as soft-Liberal supporters look for a new home.
Harper took his campaign to Halifax on Friday, promising to make it easier for foreign investors in Canada -- and hoping for no more blunders by his war room.
The prime minister made six promises aimed at attracting foreign investment, including more than tripling the threshold for foreign investment reviews to $1 billion.
The Tories would increase the allowed level of foreign investment in airlines to 49 per cent from the current 25, and allow foreign companies to own Canadian uranium mines.
Harper also promised to create a new national security test to safeguard against a foreign company, for instance, buying a computer-chip product with military applications.
He said while his party believes in free trade, the government will step in when it feels the national interest is at stake.
As Harper tried to get back on message in Halifax, NDP Leader Jack Layton was in St. John's, N.L., trying to win over voters outaged at gas prices and hidden fees.
He promised to get tough on fees and fuel pricing -- including gasoline, which soared by up to 13 cents a litre overnight in some parts of the country.
Layton took aim at what he called the "unacceptable and outrageous" practices of many banks, oil companies, telecom and credit-card firms.
"Every day, Canadians are paying millions of dollars due to price-gouging and hidden fees of all kinds," he said. "It's wrong and it's got to stop."
Layton said the party would cap credit-card interest rates by amending the bank act to limit them to five per cent over prime.
He would also crack down on payday loan companies, restricting their exorbitant interest rates -- and ban ATM fees.
"You shouldn't have to pay to access your own money," Layton said.
Asked whether he thought consumers were being gouged, Harper said that "appeared" to be the case. But he added that he didn't want to overreact to what he termed day-to-day fluctuations in energy prices.
Dion was campaigning Friday in British Columbia where the Liberals trail both the Tories and the NDP.
The telephone poll, which surveyed 1,406 Monday through Thursday, is considered accurate to within 2.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Respondents were asked: "If a federal election were held tomorrow, who do you think you would be voting for in your area."