The Conservatives are continuing to see growth in their support in Ontario and B.C., while the Bloc continues to gain ground in Quebec, largely at the expense of the Liberals.
The new Battleground 2008 poll conducted by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and the Globe and Mail comes with less than two weeks left before Canadians go to the ballot boxes on Oct. 14.
It also comes as the party leaders prepared Wednesday for their first debate since the campaign began. It will be held in the key battleground of Quebec.
According to the polling conducted from Sept. 25-30, the Conservatives hold 42 per cent support in Ontario's key battlegrounds, a gain of two per cent from polling done from Sept. 24-27 and a gain of five per cent from the 2006 results.
Those gains came as the Liberals lost significant ground in Ontario.
Here are the parties' results in Ontario (Brackets show difference from 2006 election):
- Conservative: 42 per cent (+5)
- Liberals: 29 per cent (-10)
- NDP: 20 per cent (+1)
- Bloc Quebecois: n/a
- Green Party: 9 per cent (+4)
The Conservative shift, when broken down by region, shows an eight per cent incease in the 905 area code surrounding Toronto, two per cent in the 519 and five per cent in the rest of the Ontario key battlegrounds.
In B.C., when respondents in key battlegrounds were asked how they would vote if an election were held today, again the numbers showed a Conservative lead.
Here are the parties' results in B.C. (Brackets show difference from 2006 election):
- Conservative: 41 per cent (+6)
- Liberal: 25 per cent (-8)
- NDP: 23 per cent (-4)
- Bloc: n/a
- Green Party: 11 per cent (+6)
In Quebec the numbers were much less favourable for the Conservatives. The party has been slowed by Stephen Harper's suggestion that ordinary Canadians don't relate to the elite arts community.
Their standing may also be hurt by the upcoming release of a book by Julie Couillard, former girlfriend of Maxime Bernier, the former foreign affairs minister.
While Bernier was in cabinet it was revealed that Couillard had ties to bikers, and that Bernier left secret documents at her home.
The latest poll shows the Conservatives at 22 per cent in Quebec, down from a peak of 32 per cent in early September.
The Liberals are also slumping in the province, with just 16 per cent support in key battleground ridings -- a slide of 12 per cent from their 2006 election results.
The Bloc, meanwhile is up six per cent over their 2006 results, to 43 per cent support.
Following are the province's poll numbers in Quebec (Brackets show difference from 2006 election):
- Conservative: 22 per cent (-1)
- Liberal 16 per cent (-12)
- NDP: 15 per cent (+7)
- Bloc Quebecois: 43 per cent (+6)
- Green Party 4 per cent (0)
Interestingly, the Liberals have slipped further in regions of Quebec where they currently hold ridings. On the island of Montreal, their support was down to 22 per cent -- a drop of 15 per cent from the 2006 election results.
Outside of Montreal the Liberal support was at 18 per cent, a drop of 3 per cent from 2006.
The Conservatives meanwhile hold 15 per cent support in Montreal, up one per cent from 2006, and 29 per cent outside of Montreal, down one per cent from 2006.
Peter Donolo, a partner with The Strategic Counsel, said the numbers show how vital Wednesday's French language debate is to all the parties.