On the fifth day of the federal election campaign, the Conservatives still hold a comfortable 10-point lead over their closest rival, the Liberals, according to a new poll released Wednesday morning.
The new numbers from Nanos Research, conducted on behalf of CTV and the Globe and Mail, show that 38.4 per cent of voters consider the Conservatives their top choice.
In total, 28.7 per cent of voters said they would cast a ballot for the Liberals. The New Democrats were at 19.6 per cent and the Bloc was at 9.1 per cent.
The Green Party was trailing with 4.1 per cent of respondents saying they would vote for their local Green candidate.
Pollster Nik Nanos, president and CEO of Nanos Research, said the poll results showed little change from results in mid-March.
Nationally, that means attack and counter-attack ads have largely cancelled each other out, resulting in little traction with voters, he said.
"The Conservatives have a 10-point lead, they had an 11-point lead a number of days ago, so for all this mudslinging and all the negative attacks and points and counterpints since the launch of the campaign, it's been all a wash, it hasn't really yielded any kind of different advantage for the Conservatives, they're still 10 points ahead," Nanos said.
The recent numbers were all within one percentage point of the earlier results, except the Liberals, which went from 27.6 per cent support to 28.7 per cent -- an increase of 1.1 percentage points.
In the key battlegrounds, the results were slightly different.
In Ontario, the Conservatives carried about 43 per cent support, a lead of about 10 points over the Liberals, at 32.9 per cent.
In B.C., the lead was about the same, with the Conservatives holding 41.5 per cent support over the NDP, with 29.7 per cent support. The Liberals are in third place in the province at 28.2 per cent.
In the Prairie region, a Conservative bastion, the party held 53.5 per cent support compared to 24.1 per cent for the Liberals.
In Quebec, the Bloc has the support of 36.8 per cent per cent of voters, a drop from 39.3 per cent in mid-March. The Liberals follow with 22.8 per cent in Quebec, a drop from 24.7 per cent in mid-March.
Only the NDP has seen gains in Quebec, with support rising from 13.9 per cent support in mid-March, to the current 17.8 per cent.
In the Atlantic region there was a virtual flip-flop in the two top spots, with the Conservatives dropping from 42 per cent support to 35.4 per cent. The Liberals, by contrast, rose from 36.9 per cent support to 41.4 per cent.
The NDP also saw gains, rising from 17.7 per cent support to 23.2 per cent in Atlantic Canada.
The party leaders have begun to roll out their campaign platforms this week. On Tuesday, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper promised a hiring credit to help small businesses bring on new staff.
Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff announced a plan to give up to $1,500 per year to students in post-secondary education, and NDP Leader Jack Layton said he would crack down on fees charged by banks and credit card companies.
When respondents were asked what issues drove their vote, the results were as follows:
- The party policies: 54.2 per cent (up from 48.3 per cent in mid-March)
- The party leader: 19.7 per cent (down from 20 per cent in mid-March)
- The local candidate: 12.4 per cent (up from 12.3 per cent in mid-March)
- Traditionally vote for my party: 8.9 per cent (down from 9.9 per cent in mid-March)
- Unsure: 4.7 (down from 9.6 per cent in mid-March)
Methodology
- The survey involved 1,200 Canadians 18 years of age and older
- It was conducted on the evenings of March 27, 28, 29, with 400 respondents interviewed per night
- Results are accurate to within 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20
- For the Leadership Score Index, results are compiled using the previous night of polling, rather than the three-day rolling samples, like the other results included in the poll.
