As election speculation heats up over the contents of next month's federal budget, a new poll says that support for the Conservatives continues to rise, with nearly 40 per cent of committed voters saying they would cast their ballot for a Tory candidate.
For the latest Nanos Research survey, more than 1,000 Canadians were asked to rank the top two parties they would consider voting for in a federal election.
Of the 826 committed voters, 39.7 per cent ranked the Conservatives as their top party of choice. That is up from 38.1 per cent who chose the Tories in a Nanos poll conducted in December.
While Conservative fortunes are on the rise, the news is less rosy for the Liberals. In the latest poll, 26.6 per cent of committed voters said they would cast their ballots for the Liberals, down from 31.2 per cent in December.
For the other parties:
- The number of committed voters who would cast their ballots for the NDP hit 18.9 per cent in the latest poll, up from 17.2 per cent in December.
- Support for the Bloc Quebecois dropped slightly to 9.9 per cent, from 10.2 in December, The Green Party hit 4.9 per cent, up from 3.2 per cent in December.
When the results are broken down by region, the most startling numbers come from the Prairies. The number of respondents who said they would vote Liberal dropped to 18 per cent, from 33.6 per cent last year. Respondents who said they would vote Tory shot up to 64.6 per cent, from 45.7 per cent last year.
Pollster Nik Nanos pinned the significant drop in support for the Liberals squarely on a series of negative attack ads released by the Conservatives, and said the Liberals need to "aggressively respond" if they want to stanch the bleeding.
"If they don't run ads, they still need to kind of aggressively attack the Conservatives, because if not, it's basically a free ride for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives," Nanos told 麻豆影视 Channel. "They're landing punches on the Liberals, and driving down Liberal support."
The attack ads may also be having an effect on the public's perception of Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff's ability to lead the country. The poll found a large gap between Ignatieff and Prime Minister Stephen Harper when voters were asked who they feel would make the best prime minister.
Only 13.6 per cent of those surveyed said they feel Ignatieff would make the best prime minister. That is down from 15.5 per cent from another poll conducted late last year. Meanwhile, 34.5 per cent of respondents said Harper would make the best prime minister, up from 28.4 per cent last year.
Jack Layton would make the best prime minister according to 14.3 per cent of respondents, down from 16.4 per cent last year. The number of respondents who said none of the leaders would make the best prime minister rose to 13.9 per cent, from 11.2 per cent.
The new numbers come as speculation ramps up over the contents of the next federal budget, which is expected to be tabled on March 22, and whether the opposition will support it. On Sunday, Layton put an election squarely in Harper's hands, indicating that if some of his suggestions are not included -- and scrapping a planned corporate tax cut is at the top of that list -- the NDP may vote against the budget and bring down the government.
"(Harper) can either come up with a good budget that responds to some of the real needs that Canadians are facing today, which we outlined, or he can decide not to do that, in which case he will be deciding to move us into an election," Layton told CTV's Question Period.
Nanos said Layton's tough talk corresponds with a slight uptick in the NDP's polling numbers, which is common when Liberal support goes down.
"I think that probably鈥xplains why Jack Layton is taking a little more of a hard line against the prime minister on the budget," Nanos said. "Because he's probably hedging that if there is an election, that maybe there's an opportunity for the NDP to make some gains at the expense of the Liberals."
According to Nanos, if an election is held, the latest numbers still keep the Conservatives out of reach of their long-sough-after majority.
The poll's results are based on a random telephone survey of 1,016 Canadians, aged 18 and older, conducted between February 11 and February 14. The results are accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. The results for the committed voters are accurate to within 3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
