麻豆影视

Politics

    • Trudeau Liberals 'under siege' across the country, with Conservatives cracking red 'fortresses' like Toronto and Vancouver: Nanos

    Share
    OTTAWA -

    Hot on the heels of the Conservatives鈥 stunning byelection victory in the riding of , new seat projection data from show ridings considered previously safe for the Liberals are increasingly up for grabs.

    On the latest episode of 麻豆影视 Trend Line, Nanos Research chair Nik Nanos said the latest numbers point to 鈥渄ifficult times if you鈥檙e a Liberal.鈥

    鈥淲hat we鈥檙e seeing is the Liberal fortress Toronto basically under siege,鈥 Nanos said. 鈥淪o maybe Toronto鈥擲t. Paul鈥檚 is the canary in the coal mine.鈥

    On Monday, Conservative Don Stewart defied the odds to win the closely watched Toronto-area byelection, setting off political shockwaves by claiming victory in a longtime Liberal stronghold riding.

    The byelection result, Nanos said, could in retrospect be considered 鈥渁 referendum on the government and on Justin Trudeau.鈥

    The loss for the Liberals also reinvigorated rumours party leader and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could step down before the next general election, currently slated for October 2025.

    鈥淲e can鈥檛 project a byelection onto the general election,鈥 Nanos warned, but added it鈥檚 noteworthy how much better the Conservatives did in Toronto鈥擲t. Paul鈥檚 compared to the last general election, and likewise how poorly the Liberals did compared to three years ago, which 鈥渟peaks to where the momentum is.鈥

    鈥淏ut I think the Conservatives and (leader) Pierre Poilievre want to run against Justin Trudeau,鈥 he also said. 鈥淭hey basically, by winning, created conditions that put pressure on Trudeau to step down or to be pushed out. And that kind of resets everything.鈥

    Nanos said a Trudeau resignation would change the 鈥減olitical calculus鈥 for all parties, but especially the Conservatives, who have largely framed their message around Poilievre against Trudeau.

    Regional projections

    In addition to the surprise win in Toronto鈥擲t. Paul鈥檚, Nanos said, the new data shows the Conservatives 鈥渂eing much more competitive in Toronto.鈥

    Latest Nanos seat projections for the Toronto area are on the left, while results from the 2021 election for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)

    In comparing Nanos鈥檚 latest seat projections to the results of the 2021 general election, Ontario鈥檚 projections overall are 鈥減retty blue,鈥 despite 鈥渟pots of red.鈥

    The Conservatives are also challenging 鈥渧ery strongly in a number of Ottawa ridings outside the immediate downtown, which could prove to be races to watch whenever Canadians head to the polls.

    Latest Nanos seat projections for ridings in parts of southern and eastern Ontario are on the left, while results from the 2021 election for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)

    Nanos said the Liberals could also be in store for a setback in Atlantic Canada, with both Cape Breton and Halifax in play.

    Regardless, the Conservatives are likely to pick up 鈥渁 number of鈥 seats out east.

    Latest Nanos seat projections for ridings in Atlantic Canada are on the left, while results from the 2021 election for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)

    The Prairies continue to be a lock for the Conservatives, while British Columbia is 鈥渙ne of the most complex kinds of environments,鈥 because the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP and Greens are all extremely competitive there, said Nanos.

    The riding of Burnaby South, where NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is the incumbent, is notably too close to call, according to Nanos鈥 latest seat projections.

    鈥淭hey're really, truly, multi-party races with vote splits,鈥 Nanos said, adding B.C. can vary significantly from region to region within the province.

    Latest Nanos seat projections for ridings in the Vancouver area are on the left, while results from the 2021 election for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)

    鈥淏ut zoom into Vancouver 鈥 you can see on the right-hand side, the previous election, very red, very Liberal,鈥 he also said.

    鈥淟ook how blue it is right now. And this speaks to the sea change that's happening right now.鈥

    Nanos said several ridings that could see three-way splits are 鈥渞eally, really helping the Conservatives.鈥

    More broadly, voter intention across the country continues to show the Conservatives well ahead of the other parties, a trend Nanos said has been consistent for nearly a year.

    Ballot tracking

    Nanos Research鈥檚 latest tracking shows the Conservatives at 41 per cent, with the Liberals at 27 per cent, the NDP at 14 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois at eight per cent and the Greens at four per cent.

    (Nanos Research)

    鈥淚t'll be interesting to see whether, through the summer, (the Conservatives) maintain that double-digit advantage,鈥 Nanos said.

    The pollster said while the Conservatives have stayed safely above 40 per cent for months, any change in the margin of their lead has been due to fluctuations with the Liberals and NDP.

    鈥淭hink of Justin Trudeau as preferred prime minister. He's 12 points back,鈥 Nanos also said. 鈥淭here's no political coattails right now for the Liberals, either for their brand or for their party leader right now.鈥

    NDP hits back with new ad

    As more supposed Liberal strongholds potentially come up for grabs, the party鈥檚 confidence-and-supply-agreement partner, the NDP, has taken out its largest pre-election ad buy since 2015.

    A new 30-second ad featuring Singh sets up what the party is calling the 鈥渃hange the rules tour,鈥 and it takes aim at both the Conservatives and the Liberals.

    According to NDP national director Anne McGrath, the Toronto鈥擲t. Paul鈥檚 byelection made it clear the next general election will 鈥渄efinitely鈥 be a change election, and consequently the party will 鈥渁bsolutely鈥 be devoting more resources to historically red ridings.

    鈥淪eats that might not have been up for grabs before are up for grabs,鈥 McGrath said in an interview with 麻豆影视.

    鈥淚 think that it's very obvious that what everybody thought was a stronghold, one of the safest Liberal seats in the country, was not a safe seat,鈥 she also said. 鈥淪o that means that there are no safe seats.鈥

    The Liberals鈥 loss has left many political watchers wondering whether the NDP will soon pull out of its confidence-and-supply pact, and Nanos said the time is coming for the party to make a decision on that front.

    When asked, McGrath wouldn鈥檛 say whether the NDP is currently considering scrapping the deal, but did say the party is debt-free for the first time in nearly a decade, and building up a war chest to throw as many resources as possible at the next general election, whenever that may be.

    Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts.

    Methodology

    The Weekly Nanos Tracking is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada, which operates in Canada and the United States. The data is based on random interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (recruited by RDD land- and cell-line sample), using a four-week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted using the latest census information for Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four-week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added.

    With files from 麻豆影视鈥 Judy Trinh

    IN DEPTH

    Opinion

    opinion

    opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike

    When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.

    CTVNews.ca Top Stories

    Three men were injured after trying to subdue a man armed with a knife during afternoon prayers at a Montreal-area mosque Friday afternoon.

    The London Police Service (LPS) is currently investigating a suspicious death in the east end.

    Canada

    • A man is facing numerous drug trafficking charges after Dufferin OPP seized a large assortment of drugs and weapons in Orangeville earlier this week.

    • The London Police Service (LPS) is currently investigating a suspicious death in the east end.

    • The 75-year-old building, formerly the Waskesiu Chamber of Commerce building, was relocated to the Parks Canada compound on the edge of the townsite.

    • Mattea Roach among the Maritimers honoured with the King Charles III Coronation Medal Friday.

    • Montrealers can get used to taking a stroll on several car-free streets during the summer in the years to come thanks to a new commitment from the city.

    World

    Politics

    Health

    Sci-Tech

    Entertainment

    Business

    Lifestyle

    • Tattoos are becoming more common in today's society and, as a result, appear to be more acceptable in the workplace than they used to be.

    • How to win the fight with kids over phone use

      The end of the day 鈥 when school, extracurricular activities and homework are (hopefully) finally done 鈥 is the window that many kids have for downtime. It can be a struggle to convince them not to go on their phones.

    • While slang may come and go, experts say the phenomenon behind them, which constantly churns out brand-new bon mots, is as old as language itself.

    Sports

    • Cole Haas is more than just an avid fan of the F.W. Johnson Wildcats football team. He's a fixture on the sidelines, a source of encouragement, and a beloved member of the team.

    • Heading into Friday鈥檚 game against the Calgary Stampeders, quarterback Trevor Harris said he and his Saskatchewan Roughriders were "ready to rock."

    Autos

    Local Spotlight

    Cole Haas is more than just an avid fan of the F.W. Johnson Wildcats football team. He's a fixture on the sidelines, a source of encouragement, and a beloved member of the team.

    Getting a photograph of a rainbow? Common. Getting a photo of a lightning strike? Rare. Getting a photo of both at the same time? Extremely rare, but it happened to a Manitoba photographer this week.

    An anonymous business owner paid off the mortgage for a New Brunswick not-for-profit.

    They say a dog is a man鈥檚 best friend. In the case of Darren Cropper, from Bonfield, Ont., his three-year-old Siberian husky and golden retriever mix named Bear literally saved his life.

    A growing group of brides and wedding photographers from across the province say they have been taken for tens of thousands of dollars by a Barrie, Ont. wedding photographer.

    Paleontologists from the Royal B.C. Museum have uncovered "a trove of extraordinary fossils" high in the mountains of northern B.C., the museum announced Thursday.

    The search for a missing ancient 28-year-old chocolate donkey ended with a tragic discovery Wednesday.

    The Royal Canadian Mounted Police is celebrating an important milestone in the organization's history: 50 years since the first women joined the force.

    It's been a whirlwind of joyful events for a northern Ontario couple who just welcomed a baby into their family and won the $70 million Lotto Max jackpot last month.

    • A six-year-old girl who was reported missing in northern B.C. earlier this week remains unaccounted for, and "significant resources from across the province" have joined in the search, police said Saturday.

    • A man who was found dead behind a curling rink in Nanaimo, B.C., earlier this month was the victim of a homicide, police confirmed.

    • No one was injured when a large fire destroyed a home in a rural part of Surrey overnight.

    • York Regional Police say they are looking for a homicide suspect after a wellness check led police to a body at a home in Richmond Hill early Saturday.

    • Toronto police say they have now identified a third person who they believe was involved in a shooting that left two men dead in North York earlier this week.

    • A man is fighting for his life in hospital a day after a vehicle smashed into several others in and around an intersection in Milton before flipping over.

    • The man charged with fatally stabbing lifelong Banff resident Ethan Enns-Goneau in 2022 has been convicted of second-degree murder.

    • A robust crew of volunteers are raising funds and awareness for first responders and veterans Saturday at Calgary police headquarters in northeast Calgary.

    • Heading into Friday鈥檚 game against the Calgary Stampeders, quarterback Trevor Harris said he and his Saskatchewan Roughriders were "ready to rock."

    • A joint police operation to promote safe driving on Highway 417 in the Ottawa area has resulted in laying dozens of charges in three hours Friday, according to the Ontario Provincial Police (OPP).

    • Whether it was a big truck, or a small one, the construction trucks rolling past the Children鈥檚 Hospital of Eastern Ontario (CHEO) on Saturday had a very important job, and it's putting smiles on the faces of little ones.

    • The 17th annual Canada Army Run is scheduled to take place Sunday in Ottawa, impacting traffic throughout downtown.

    • Montrealers can get used to taking a stroll on several car-free streets during the summer in the years to come thanks to a new commitment from the city.

    • Three men were injured after trying to subdue a man armed with a knife during afternoon prayers at a Montreal-area mosque Friday afternoon.

    • Some residents in Notre-Dame-de-Gr芒ce (NDG) are raising concerns about the decision to repave the de Maisonneuve bike path, arguing that other roads in the borough should be a higher priority.

    • Tattoos are becoming more common in today's society and, as a result, appear to be more acceptable in the workplace than they used to be.

    • Former Edmonton Oiler Zack Kassian has rejoined the team as a pro scout, the Oilers announced on Saturday.

    • Saturday is Community League Day in Edmonton.

    • Halifax Regional Police warned the public of a series of high-value thefts targeting retail stores Friday.

    • The Lower Sackville area in Nova Scotia has access to a new section of trail, according to a news release from the government of Canada on Saturday.

    • Kings District RCMP in Prince Edward Island is investigating a fatal, single-vehicle crash that occurred on 48 Road in Head of Cardigan on Friday.

    • The search for a missing six-year-old boy in Shamattawa is continuing Friday as RCMP hope recent tips can help lead to a happy conclusion.

    • Three men are facing charges after a traffic stop netted $70,000 worth of cocaine on Thursday.

    • While slang may come and go, experts say the phenomenon behind them, which constantly churns out brand-new bon mots, is as old as language itself.

    • The last two months after losing her daughter Bella have been extremely difficult for Kyla Thomson.

    • Regina police arrested three youths in connection to a bear mace incident at a Regina high school on Friday.

    • Heading into Friday's game against the Calgary Stampeders, quarterback Trevor Harris said he and his Saskatchewan Roughriders were "ready to rock."

    • Protests were held in front of Kitchener City Hall on Friday, both for and against LGBTQ2S+ inclusive education and queer rights in schools.

    • The provincial government is considering new rules to restrict a municipality鈥檚 ability to install new bike lanes if it means traffic lanes would be removed.

    • Police said the pedestrian, a 52-year-old man, was taken to an out-of-region hospital with life-threatening injuries and the driver of the vehicle failed to remain at the scene.

    • Heading into Friday's game against the Calgary Stampeders, quarterback Trevor Harris said he and his Saskatchewan Roughriders were "ready to rock."

    • The City of Saskatoon is proposing changes to the proposed downtown shelter site plan following feedback from nearby residents and businesses.

    • The 75-year-old building, formerly the Waskesiu Chamber of Commerce building, was relocated to the Parks Canada compound on the edge of the townsite.

    • A motorcyclist has died following a serious collision that took place in London鈥檚 south end on Friday afternoon.

    • The London Police Service (LPS) is currently investigating a suspicious death in the east end.

    • The St. Thomas police is asking the public for help locating a missing man.

    • A man is facing numerous drug trafficking charges after Dufferin OPP seized a large assortment of drugs and weapons in Orangeville earlier this week.

    • One person is in hospital after an e-bike crash in Orillia on Thursday.

    • On Saturday, OPP officers responded to a call after a car hit a tree in a parking lot at 8:00 a.m. on West St. S and King St in Orillia.

    • The Amherstburg Freedom Museum is celebrating of a year of festivities in anticipation of its 50th anniversary in 2025.

    • The St. Clair College golf teams were successful at the Niagara Knights Invitational tournament on Friday.

    • A LaSalle high school is celebrating its emerald anniversary this weekend, with everyone who has ever walked its halls invited to return.

    • A man who was found dead behind a curling rink in Nanaimo, B.C., earlier this month was the victim of a homicide, police confirmed.

    • A six-year-old girl who was reported missing in northern B.C. earlier this week remains unaccounted for, and "significant resources from across the province" have joined in the search, police said Saturday.

    • The British Columbia election campaign is set to officially start today, with Lt.-Gov. Janet Austin issuing the writ for the Oct. 19 vote.

    • A pair of runaway pigs are in the custody of an animal sanctuary in the Okanagan after evading police and volunteers for hours earlier this week.

    • The Red Bridge, a historic landmark in Kamloops, B.C., was completely destroyed by fire early Thursday morning.

    • Animal protection officers in British Columbia have rescued three pit bulls 鈥 including one that gave birth to 10 puppies 鈥 from a rat-infested home in Kelowna.

    • Despite the heavy rain, plenty of muscle turned up for United Way鈥檚 annual Pull the Bus fundraiser in Lethbridge Friday.

    • Lethbridge County has rescinded its fire restriction as a result of the recent cool, wet weathr.

    • The Lethbridge Hurricanes kicked off the 2024-25 season on a winning note Friday night, defeating the Edmonton Oil Kings 3-1 in a game played at VisitLethbridge.com Arena.

    • Following an outbreak of COVID-19 on its continuing care floor and just ahead of the flu season, St. Joseph鈥檚 General Hospital in Elliot Lake has opted to re-introduce a universal masking policy until further notice.

    • A 26-year-old driver from Surrey, B.C., has been charged with three counts of criminal negligence causing death and bodily harm in a crash that killed two youths in northern Ontario last year.

    • Ontario Provincial Police say three suspects from southern Ontario have been charged and drugs worth $300,000 have been seized following a traffic stop Sept. 16.

    N.L.

    Stay Connected
    Follow 麻豆影视