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    • Tom Mulcair: When the Liberals fall out of favour, they fall hard

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    Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault had to admit the obvious during a recent interview. Appearing Sunday on CTV鈥檚 Question Period with Vassy Kapelos, Guilbeault explained that there will indeed be a cost to families for the carbon tax. 

    Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wore a bright green tie to last week鈥檚 budget announcement. It was supposed to be a nod to his big new vision for a green economy of the future. While there are worthwhile initiatives in the budget, everything Trudeau and the Liberals say on the environment and the economy has to be measured against their past performance. It鈥檚 been empty promise after empty promise, with no results. 

    Trudeau has been in power for seven-and-a-half years. During that time the number of bureaucrats in the federal civil service has ballooned by 31 per cent. An astonishing number, especially when you consider that companies such as McKinsey are now billing the government approximately $21 billion per year to do the work of鈥he government. 

    The cost of the federal bureaucracy has also increased exponentially. The budget鈥檚 promise to start reducing staff by 3 per cent after all of that hiring is the opposite of sound public administration. Undoing what you just did, without a plan, is mismanagement on top of incompetence. But that鈥檚 the way things are in Trudeau鈥檚 Ottawa right now. 

    Telling Canadians that their expenses will now increase with the carbon tax is becoming a tough sell, even if you explain that it鈥檚 for a good cause and promise a cheque to help cover it.

    Until now, the Liberals have danced around the issue and ministers were supposed to talk about the rebate cheques to be sent to households. The goal was to muddy the waters as to the cost, something Trudeau has mastered.

    Not only was Guilbeault more open as to the price families will have to pay, he also decided -- out of nowhere -- to criticize Doug Ford鈥檚 Ontario Conservative government for not having a plan to deal with climate change!

    That was a mistake on several levels at the same time. First off, Ford has seemed less than enthralled with Pierre Poilievre. What interest did the federal Liberals have in ticking him off? Second, people who live in glass houses shouldn鈥檛 throw stones! Trudeau came back to Canada from his Paris signing only to announce that he had the same plan as Stephen Harper. A plan he鈥檇 mocked a few weeks earlier during the election campaign. And even that he hasn鈥檛 accomplished!

    Guilbeault鈥檚 admission, about the cost to families, shouldn鈥檛 have come as a total surprise because a carbon tax is (wait for it)鈥 tax!

    When you want to guarantee a result in reducing pollution, you can use a cap-and-trade system, like the one that Canada and the U.S. put in place a generation ago to reduce sulfur dioxide and other emissions that were killing our forests with the acid rain they caused.

    We put a limit on emissions, slowly lowered it and created a system of credits that allowed industries to buy or sell, depending on their performance. It worked because it was a closed system. The result was a certainty.

    A carbon tax is trickier because it鈥檚 based on assumptions. Put a high enough tax on gasoline, and people will buy less of it. A pretty safe prediction. The hard part is determining the level of that tax, to know in advance exactly what effect it will have on lowering the GHG emissions that are causing global warming and climate change.

    When Trudeau鈥檚 cabinet (including Guilbeault) approved the massive offshore oil project called Bay du Nord, they could no longer plausibly claim that they were serious about reducing GHGs. It was all for show.

    Canada has had one of the worst records in the G-7, since signing the Paris Accord. There was great positive sentiment at the time, but there have been few results. Unfortunately, this has become standard operating procedure for a government continually pushing image over substance.

    The budget documents equate hydrogen derived from natural gas with clean energies. They鈥檒l be subsidizing those. They鈥檒l actually be giving more taxpayer money to the fossil fuel sector. They鈥檒l be subsidizing more natural gas and an-as-yet unproven carbon capture and storage technology. That taxpayer money, subsidizing more GHGs, will actually come, in part, from the carbon tax! Quite the irony. It鈥檚 not going to fly with people who know about the environment. For those who are looking only at costs, there鈥檚 of course nothing to recommend it either.

    'JUSTIN TRUDEAU鈥橲 CREDIBILITY GAP IS WIDENING'

    Trudeau did a good turn on the popular French talk show 鈥淭out le monde en parle鈥 Sunday, apparently trying to clean up after the Guilbeault interview.

    He did a decent sales job, pleading that these weren鈥檛 deficits, they were investments for the future. Good lines that are starting to wear thin after years of empty promises. There鈥檚 a Trudeau 鈥渃redibility gap鈥 that is widening.

    At the flagship English-language Montreal radio station (iHeartRadio鈥檚 CJAD 800) where I also work, I was gobsmacked by the generalized bad sentiment towards the Trudeau Liberals during recent call-ins. Something I鈥檇 never heard before.

    It鈥檚 cyclical but over the long haul, English-speaking Quebecers are some of the most faithful Liberal voters in Canada. Trudeau鈥檚 recent budget performance seems to have broken that close bond.

    Failure to lift a little finger to defend that community from Francois Legault鈥檚 outrageously unconstitutional Bill 96, that attacks equality of English and French before the courts, could cost the Liberals big time at the polls in some of their safest ridings. Trudeau鈥檚 reform of the Official Languages Act, Bill C-13, could even endanger the right of the anglophone minority in Quebec to control and manage its school boards. It鈥檚 a community with a lot to defend and an ability to organize. Trudeau can ignore Marc Garneau鈥檚 resignation over the issue. He can鈥檛 afford to ignore nearly one million usually staunch supporters.

    鈥楶IERRE POILIEVRE IS INCREASINGLY FINDING HIS MARK鈥

    When the Liberals fall out of favour, they fall hard. Jack Layton and I benefited the last time it happened. It鈥檚 happening again and it seems no amount of spin can counteract their inexorable downward spiral in Trudeau鈥檚 home province.

    Poilievre is increasingly finding his mark. Abandoning some of his wonkier musings, he鈥檚 starting to connect. He remains abrasive and off-putting but Liberals should take no comfort in that. Poilievre is learning and is finally accepting to be coached. He鈥檚 scoring heavily on law and order issues and has a massive opening on taxation and the managerial incompetence of the Liberals.

    Trudeau shows no sign of getting the message that he may be past his 鈥渂est before鈥 date. He seems to relish the idea of an all-or-nothing battle against the forces of darkness he perceives as being represented by Poilievre. Problem is, once the concrete has begun to set, it may be too late to reverse the 鈥渏ust tired of Justin鈥 syndrome.

    Canadians do indeed seem to be increasingly concerned about more pressing social issues such as violence in the streets in general and against cops, in particular. That鈥檚 playing into Poilievre鈥檚 hands. The academic insouciance of Justice Minister David Lametti seems to fuel the feeling of disconnect.

    Last week鈥檚 budget included over $1.3 billion to continue to hire staff and find workarounds for the wretched Phoenix pay system that has more bugs than clients. It鈥檚 become a poetic symbol of the current Liberal government.

    The prime minister was supposed to help his party rise from the ashes of entitlement and poor management. Instead, the Trudeau Liberals have become the Phoenix pay system of Canadian governments.

    Tom Mulcair was the leader of the federal New Democratic Party of Canada between 2012 and 2017

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