Tom Mulcair: Poilievre keeps scoring into the Liberals' empty net
There really does appear to be a surliness in the land, perhaps fuelled by pent-up sentiments after several years of lockdowns, isolation and kids at home from school. The sudden return of high inflation has no doubt contributed to the resentment.
Several premiers who were riding high after the pandemic have landed with a thud.
Doug Ford and Francois Legault were easily elected to second majority terms as their provinces exited the health crisis. Blaine Higgs of New Brunswick had earlier turned his minority government into a majority.
According to the most recent numbers from the , Higgs, Ford and Legault have the approval of about one third of their voters. If these numbers hold, they wouldn鈥檛 stand a chance of being re-elected.
In 2023, the average family with two kids was paying about $100 a month more for groceries than the year before. The money just isn鈥檛 there as the cost of everything else has gone up.
Against this backdrop, Pierre Poilievre has been having a field day. His most recent coup is a mockumentary on 鈥.鈥 Now, Poilievre has never met a fact that he wasn鈥檛 willing to torture, a bit, but this is just about the best piece of political communication Canadians have ever been treated to, and it鈥檚 devastating for Trudeau.
Since 2015, Trudeau has become a meme, repeating ad nauseam that he was there for 鈥渢he middle class and everyone working hard to join the middle class.鈥 It made you want to throw your shoe at the television, he repeated it so much.
Problem for Trudeau is that it was like so much else with him and his government, just another good line that unintentionally shone a spotlight on everything they talked about but never accomplished.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meets with local women leaders to discuss affordability and child care, at the Royal Rose Art Gallery & Gifts, in Aurora, Ont., Friday, Dec. 1, 2023. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christopher Katsarov
Like climate change, which was supposed to be easy because, as Trudeau proclaimed at the Paris Conference, Canada was 鈥渂ack.鈥 Except, nothing happened. Trudeau spent over $30 billion building an oil pipeline and approved a new massive offshore oil project.
Then he dumped a key part of his carbon tax. As Canada鈥檚 independent commissioner of sustainable development recently reported, we鈥檝e never met our obligations on climate and have no plan that would allow us to do so. But Trudeau keeps posing, lecturing and posturing nonetheless.
If Trudeau cared about climate, which I believe he sincerely did, why wasn鈥檛 he ever able to get anything done? The answer is that he really doesn鈥檛 seem to know how things work in public administration. He talks about stuff but doesn鈥檛 know how to make it happen.
Home ownership is one of the easiest markers for determining whether or not you鈥檙e middle class. For generations, home ownership was an achievable goal for Canadians who worked hard and played by the rules. That鈥檚 simply no longer the case and that鈥檚 where Poilievre comes in.
Yes, Poilievre grossly oversimplifies when he bemoans gatekeepers as a major cause, as if a thorough environmental analysis should be steamrolled aside.
Where he scores is with his approach based on results. He鈥檚 cleverly sidestepping the thorny problem of jurisdiction and is simply saying: figure it out, but you won鈥檛 get federal infrastructure money if you don鈥檛 get the job done.
It鈥檚 telling and seems a tad misogynistic that he zeroes in on Valerie Plante and Olivia Chow in his housing documentary. Sure, they鈥檙e the mayors of Canada鈥檚 largest cities, Montreal and Toronto. But really, they鈥檙e the problem? In Plante鈥檚 case it doesn鈥檛 even make sense. Montreal doesn鈥檛 get one penny from the feds. Because it can鈥檛. Under Quebec鈥檚 Executive Council Act, municipalities are not allowed to deal directly with Ottawa.
That being said, the essence of Poilievre鈥檚 mega rant scores heavily into the Liberals鈥 empty net. It really has become much more difficult to own a home in Canada. By targeting investors who are bidding up prices, Poilievre is also showing that he鈥檚 not afraid to take on those who would normally be assumed to be closer to the Conservatives.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre rises during Question Period, in Ottawa, Monday, Dec. 4, 2023. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
There鈥檚 a whole generation of 18- to 45-year-olds who are listening closely to Poilievre鈥檚 policies and prescriptions, and the Liberal slide in the polls proves it.
LIBERAL-DEMOCRATS?...
There鈥檚 still plenty of time until the next election and many things could happen.
Singh has been steadfast in his respect of his deal to keep Trudeau in power. The combined Liberal-NDP vote remains higher than that of the Conservatives (hello Liberal-Democrats?)鈥
But Trudeau is starting to run out of time, both personally and politically.
When he shuffled his cabinet last summer, Trudeau brought in a dozen or so new faces. None has made much of an impression.
When he was asked then why his poll numbers were slipping, Trudeau reverted back to his old habits. He defended his record, apparently unaware of the fact that his record was his biggest problem.
Brian Mulroney likes to joke that his own polling numbers were like shoe sizes as he approached his second election against John Turner. A big bet on a Canada-U.S. trade deal gave him a second majority.
After three elections, the Liberal cupboard just seems bare of big ideas and the few that they did have, never panned out.
Trudeau is going through the motions of claiming he鈥檚 preparing for another election, naming his campaign co-chairs and so forth. Trudeau is an excellent politician with loads of confidence and hubris. It鈥檒l take a very long walk in the snow, but he might just come to the realization that his 鈥渂est before鈥 date has come and gone and offer his party the chance to revive with new leadership.
Otherwise the Poilievre juggernaut is likely to simply continue, unchallenged and unabated.
Tom Mulcair was the leader of the federal New Democratic Party of Canada between 2012 and 2017
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