Poilievre surpasses Trudeau when it comes to preferred prime minister: Nanos
The federal Liberals are trending downward on three key measures while Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has surpassed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau when it comes to the question of who Canadians would prefer now as their prime minister, according to Nanos Research.
Ballot support has been trending negatively now for weeks for the Liberals, while it's remained steady for the Conservatives; meanwhile, support for Trudeau as prime minister has taken a sharp downward turn as Poilievre's personal numbers have risen to the point of surpassing Trudeau's.
Preferred Prime Minister (Source: Nanos Research)
"Usually whoever is the prime minister has some sort of advantage. Right now, Pierre Poilievre outpolls Justin Trudeau," said Nik Nanos, pollster and chair of Nanos Research, on the latest episode of Â鶹ӰÊÓ Trend Line.
LIBERALS LOSING 'ACCESSIBLE VOTERS'
Aside from their sagging numbers on the ballot and question, the other key metric where the Liberals have fallen behind is on the Nanos , which is a composite of measurements including voter preference and leadership impressions, as well accessible voters – the proportion of Canadians who would consider voting for a party.
"Over the course of the last while, the Liberals have consistently had an advantage on the power index and had a stronger brand. Now we see the Conservatives surpassing them for the first time in a couple of years since the last election, when the Conservatives had a little bit of a surge," said Nanos.
Currently, the Conservatives sit at 50 points on the power index, while the Liberals are at 47 and the NDP at 46.
Power Index (Source: Nanos Research)
A key reason for the Conservative surge is that their share of accessible voters in Canada is growing.
"For the last … 50 years, the Liberals traditionally have always had a larger pool of accessible voters. That means people that would consider voting Liberal," said Nanos. That was certainly true in the 2015 election when Trudeau secured a majority for the Liberals, who took 184 seats compared with Stephen Harper's Conservatives, who won 99.
"But since 2015, the proportion of Canadians that would consider voting Liberal has gone down. So they've gone from a big tent … to a narrower tent. And as a result, it's impacted the political muscle of the Liberals," said Nanos.
Speaking of elections, Nanos said the good news for the Liberals is that they're not fighting in one anytime soon. With Poilievre's Conservatives currently at 35 per cent on the ballot question, with a six-point lead over the Liberals, they're in the territory they need to be in, in order to win an election.
Ballot support (Source: Nanos Research)
"When Stephen Harper won a number of elections, he won because he had a six-point advantage. Right now, the Conservatives have a six-point advantage," said Nanos.
BUDGET AND BIDEN BOUNCE?
Whether Tuesday's federal budget -- in which the Liberal government prioritized help for Canadians' pocketbooks and promised to invest in a clean economy and fund a national dental care program -- will boost their fortunes in they eyes of voters is yet to be seen. Nanos said wewon't know that for anotherseven to 10 days.
But "it speaks to the importance of the budget and also the most recent visit from President Biden. It's very important for the Liberals to try to reverse this trend right now that currently is favouring Pierre Poilievre and the federal Conservative Party," said Nanos.
Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts. The next episode comes out Wednesday, April 12.
IN DEPTH
Jagmeet Singh pulls NDP out of deal with Trudeau Liberals, takes aim at Poilievre Conservatives
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has pulled his party out of the supply-and-confidence agreement that had been helping keep Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's minority Liberals in power.
'Not the result we wanted': Trudeau responds after surprise Conservative byelection win in Liberal stronghold
Conservative candidate Don Stewart winning the closely-watched Toronto-St. Paul's federal byelection, and delivering a stunning upset to Justin Trudeau's candidate Leslie Church in the long-time Liberal riding, has sent political shockwaves through both parties.
'We will go with the majority': Liberals slammed by opposition over proposal to delay next election
The federal Liberal government learned Friday it might have to retreat on a proposal within its electoral reform legislation to delay the next vote by one week, after all opposition parties came out to say they can't support it.
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Conservatives call on Elon Musk to step in after Liberals provide loan to Ottawa-based satellite operator
A $2.14-billion federal loan for an Ottawa-based satellite operator has Canadian politicians arguing about whether American billionaire Elon Musk poses a national security risk.
Sunken superyacht believed to contain watertight safes with sensitive intelligence data
Specialist divers surveying the wreckage of the US$40 million superyacht that sank off Sicily in August, killing seven people including British tech tycoon Mike Lynch, have asked for heightened security to guard the vessel, over concerns that sensitive data locked in its safes may interest foreign governments, multiple sources told CNN.
Myths busted and lessons learned: John Vennavally-Rao on his surgery to reverse his ostomy
Twenty-seven year Â鶹ӰÊÓ reporter and anchor John Vennavally-Rao shares his story of what it was like to have an ostomy bag as part of his health-care battle. 'I’m grateful for what it did to extend my life,' he writes in a personal column for CTVNews.ca.
The British Columbia election campaign is set to officially start today, with Lt.-Gov. Janet Austin issuing the writ for the Oct. 19 vote.
A northern Ontario man is facing a $12,000 fine after illegally shooting a moose near the Batchawan River.
Heavy metal exposure could increase cardiovascular disease risk, study finds
A new study is adding to emerging research showing that exposure to metals such as cadmium, uranium and copper may also be associated with the leading cause of death worldwide, cardiovascular disease.
Unusual flippered feet are making their way into the Saint Lawrence River this weekend. Led by underwater explorer and filmmaker Nathalie Lasselin, volunteer divers are combing the riverbed near Beauharnois in Montérégie to remove hundreds of tires that have been polluting the aquatic environment for decades.
Hezbollah targets base near Haifa after Israeli strike in Beirut killed 37, including top commander
The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah announced that it fired a barrage of missiles at a military base deep inside Israel early Sunday following an Israeli airstrike more than a day earlier that killed at least 37 people, including one of the militant group’s senior leaders as well as women and children.
A sea lion swam free after a rescue team disentangled it near Vancouver Island earlier this week.
Local Spotlight
Cole Haas is more than just an avid fan of the F.W. Johnson Wildcats football team. He's a fixture on the sidelines, a source of encouragement, and a beloved member of the team.
Getting a photograph of a rainbow? Common. Getting a photo of a lightning strike? Rare. Getting a photo of both at the same time? Extremely rare, but it happened to a Manitoba photographer this week.
An anonymous business owner paid off the mortgage for a New Brunswick not-for-profit.
They say a dog is a man’s best friend. In the case of Darren Cropper, from Bonfield, Ont., his three-year-old Siberian husky and golden retriever mix named Bear literally saved his life.
A growing group of brides and wedding photographers from across the province say they have been taken for tens of thousands of dollars by a Barrie, Ont. wedding photographer.
Paleontologists from the Royal B.C. Museum have uncovered "a trove of extraordinary fossils" high in the mountains of northern B.C., the museum announced Thursday.
The search for a missing ancient 28-year-old chocolate donkey ended with a tragic discovery Wednesday.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police is celebrating an important milestone in the organization's history: 50 years since the first women joined the force.
It's been a whirlwind of joyful events for a northern Ontario couple who just welcomed a baby into their family and won the $70 million Lotto Max jackpot last month.