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    • Liberal government survives confidence vote

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    Prime Minister Justin Trudeau survived his first confidence vote of the fall sitting on Wednesday.

    Members of Parliament voted on Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre鈥檚 attempt to bring down the Liberal government after question period, and the non-confidence motion was defeated 211-120.

    As expected after a testy Tuesday debate and an acrimonious exchange of accusations in the House heading into the vote, the parties that hold the balance of power in this minority Parliament 鈥 the Bloc Quebecois and NDP 鈥 backed the government, giving Trudeau the votes he needed to continue governing.

    In voting down what has framed as a choice "to give Canadians the carbon tax election they want,鈥 NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and Bloc Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet indicated they aren鈥檛 yet ready to help force Canadians into an early election, which polling indicates the Conservatives would likely win. 

    With the outcome of the opposition motion all but expected in the hours leading up to it, political posturing ramped up over future tests of the Liberal minority government.

    The next was poised to come before the end of the day. The Liberals tried to advance a second motion that they鈥檝e deemed a confidence vote, a 鈥淲ays and Means Motion鈥 鈥 essentially granting the government the approval to table a spending bill 鈥 connected to post-consultation changes to the capital gains policy.

    This measure is tied to the Liberals鈥 last budget, and as it鈥檚 primarily a bill about collecting and spending Canadians鈥 money, it鈥檚 being treated as a matter of confidence. But procedural tactics put off the vote, leaving it to come back up another day. 

    Bloc gives Liberals one month to act

    Without the parliamentary pact that saw the NDP prop them up on confidence votes, the minority Liberals are set to face a series of further motions to bring them down in the days ahead.

    So far, both Singh and Blanchet have indicated a desire to try to first leverage their votes for policy action before playing a part in toppling Trudeau.

    Though on Wednesday morning, Blanchet essentially gave the government an ultimatum, and a one-month deadline to commit to his demands.

    He said Trudeau has until Oct. 29 to agree to help pass and enact a pair of Bloc-originated bills 鈥 one regarding seniors鈥 pensions and the other involving supply management protections 鈥 or he鈥檒l start talking to the other parties about taking Trudeau鈥檚 government down.

    The legislation Blanchet wants the government to push through are which proposes a 10 per cent increase to Old Age Security (OAS) payouts for seniors ages 65 to 74, and , which seeks to protect dairy, egg and poultry farmers in future trade talks.

    When asked by reporters on Tuesday what he makes of Blanchet鈥檚 deadline, Health Minister Mark Holland said he鈥檇 prefer to focus on 鈥減olicy conversations.鈥

    鈥淚 think every proposal that's made is something that is considered,鈥 he said. 鈥淏ut I don't think it's helpful to issue ultimatums. I think that what is helpful is to demonstrate that Parliament is focused on Canadians and not politics.鈥

    Yesterday, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said conversations were 鈥渙ngoing鈥 with both the Bloc and the NDP about their requests for policy action.

    Today, Blanchet seemed to pour cold water on the state of those talks.

    鈥淚t is a friendly specialty of the Liberals to say that they are having discussions and that everybody is their close friends,鈥 he said on Wednesday. 鈥淪o far there's been very little discussions. And as you see, there's not so much room for discussion.鈥

    More high-stakes votes ahead

    Another high-stakes vote may come early next week. The Liberals have assigned the Conservatives their second opposition day of the sitting this Thursday, with the vote scheduled for the following Tuesday.

    Poilievre has given the House notice of a pair of potential motions he could present for debate. One quotes Singh and Blanchet and their respective criticisms of the Liberals. The other focuses on Poilievre鈥檚 central critiques of the government鈥檚 handling of housing, taxes, and crime.

    And both include variations of wording indicating the House has lost confidence in the government.

    Reacting to the looming questions, Government House Leader Karina Gould accused the Conservatives of 鈥減laying games.鈥

    鈥淚 think it's pretty lame that they're going to put forward another non-confidence vote tomorrow, basically the same thing that they did just hours before,鈥 Gould said. 鈥淏ut I think it shows the desperation of Mr. Poilievre.鈥

    The Bloc and NDP will also have one opposition day each before the winter break.

    When asked by reporters whether he thinks the Liberals will remain in power until next October鈥檚 fixed election date 鈥 even if they give in to the Bloc鈥檚 demands 鈥 Blanchet said he wouldn鈥檛 bet on it.

    The flurry of motions and negotiations over support prompted longtime MP and Green Party Leader Elizabeth May to predict one way this could all play out.

    鈥淭here will be jockeying for position, there will be trading, there will be bribes, and there will be offers to be bribed, and it will continue until after the next budget,鈥 May said.

    鈥淎nd then the question is, depending on which party benefits the most or perceives they've benefited the most from the next budget, the budget will succeed or fail.鈥

    In the meantime, she expects 鈥渕ore time-wasting motions.鈥

    While the political drama has seized Parliament Hill, whether it could turn the dial on Canadians鈥 desire for an election is another question.

    鈥淚t鈥檚, I think, reasonable to presume that Canadians are not watching every twist and every turn of question period and every non-confidence motion that's being brought on a daily basis,鈥 said Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute.

    Kurl said the appetite for an election varies depending on where on the political spectrum voters position themselves.

    鈥淭here are a lot of things that people in this country would rather be doing than going to the polls earlier than they think is necessary,鈥 she said.

    Asked whether a series of confidence votes could have a compounding effect, Kurl said it could go two ways.

    鈥淵ou could see more votes starting to have an effect on Canadians, where they they're thinking more seriously about it [an election.] But the opposite side to that is there could be a tune-out factor,鈥 she said.

    鈥淭he more this becomes normalized, you know, the first one everybody's watching what'll happen鈥 once we get to the seventh one or the eighth one, I think, you know, what's happening in the NHL season may be a little bit more of interest to Canadians.鈥 

    With files from 麻豆影视' Spencer Van Dyk 

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