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    • PBO projects deficit exceeded $40B pledge, Liberals won't say if they'll meet target

    Parliament Hill is shown in Ottawa on Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick Parliament Hill is shown in Ottawa on Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick
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    The federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below the promised $40-billion cap in the last fiscal year, the parliamentary budget officer said on Thursday.

    The budget watchdog estimates in its latest economic and fiscal outlook that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

    The final tally of the last year's deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

    "Based on our analysis, the government will not meet its fiscal commitment to keep the deficit below $40 billion in 2023-24," Yves Giroux said.

    Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at that level, and said in her spring budget it would stay in line with the promise.

    The new fiscal guardrail was part of an effort to quell fears that high government spending would fuel price growth and work at odds with the Bank of Canada's inflation-taming efforts.

    A spokeswoman for Freeland would not say whether the federal government still expects to meet its fiscal guardrail on Thursday.

    "Our federal government is making historic investments in the priorities of Canadians -- in housing, affordability, and economic growth -- and we are doing this in (a) fiscally responsible way," Katherine Cuplinskas said in a statement.

    Assuming no new measures are announced, the PBO forecasts the federal deficit to decrease slightly to $46.4 billion for the 2024-25 fiscal year.

    Meanwhile, the PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada's interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

    The report forecasts real gross domestic product will grow by 2.2 per cent in 2025, up from a projected 1.1 per cent for 2024.

    The PBO's economic forecast assumes a sharp reduction in the temporary resident population, given the federal government's recent policy changes.

    However, the budget watchdog assumes the federal government will fall short of its target of reducing the temporary resident population to five per cent of the population.

    Statistics Canada estimates there were about three million non-permanent residents in the country as of July 1, which represented about 7.2 per cent of the population.

     

    The PBO report also offers a projection for interest rates, forecasting the central bank will keep cutting until its policy rate reaches 2.75 per cent in the second quarter of 2025.

    The Bank of Canada's next interest rate announcement is scheduled for Wednesday, as economists gear up for a potential supersized rate cut.

    Earlier this week, Statistics Canada reported that the annual inflation rate fell to 1.6 per cent in September, which is below the Bank of Canada's two per cent target.

    The softer-than-expected inflation figure spurred more speculation that the central bank will opt for a half-percentage point interest rate cut next week, in lieu of its usual quarter-percentage point cuts.

    The central bank's key interest rate currently stands at 4.25 per cent.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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    • Mounties on Vancouver Island say one person is dead and another is presumed to have drowned after two vehicles were found submerged in a river following heavy rains that washed out roadways across British Columbia.

    • Two men charged in the killing of former Air India bombing suspect Ripudaman Singh Malik have pleaded guilty to second-degree murder in a British Columbia court.

    • A 65-year-old Repentigny man is facing charges after allegedly drunkenly firing a shotgun in his apartment and injuring a young woman who was sleeping in her bed two floors above.

    • The investigation into the sudden death of a 19-year-old Walmart employee over the weekend is ongoing in Halifax.

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    Health

    • The University Health Network (UHN) is making masks mandatory as respiratory illness season ramps up.

    • A Quebec-based religion says Health Canada is dragging its feet on a decision whether to allow members to use magic mushrooms in their ceremonies.

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    • Nearly six months after its opening, the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion is boosting Canada's energy sector as promised 鈥 but questions still linger about who will pay for the project's massive cost overruns.

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    Lifestyle

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    • A newly minted Winnipegger is hoping a world record attempt will help bring awareness for the need for more pump track facilities in the city.

    • Two-time Olympian Sarah Pavan announced her retirement Monday, ending a 25-year volleyball career that included play in both indoor team competition and the beach volleyball discipline.

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    A Manitoba professor is warning the public after a book on regional mushrooms that he suspects is AI-generated was delisted from Amazon.

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    • Police are seeking dash cam footage to piece together the final moments of a woman who drowned in the Fraser River more than two weeks ago.

    • Two men charged in the killing of former Air India bombing suspect Ripudaman Singh Malik have pleaded guilty to second-degree murder in a British Columbia court.

    • Mounties on Vancouver Island say one person is dead and another is presumed to have drowned after two vehicles were found submerged in a river following heavy rains that washed out roadways across British Columbia.

    • The University Health Network (UHN) is making masks mandatory as respiratory illness season ramps up.

    • A Durham police officer has been charged criminally after he allegedly failed to render medical assistance to a person in distress.

    • A 25-year-old Hamilton man who was shot after letting a six-year-old child play with his gun is facing charges, police say. That鈥檚 just one incident in what Hamilton police say has been a record year for shootings in the city.

    • Three people were sent to hospital following a crash on Peigan Trail Monday morning.

    • Calgary Parking says there is 鈥渘o need to worry鈥 about stickers covering the contactless payment sensors on payment machines in the city.

    • Calgary police have released photos of a missing teen in an effort to locate her.

    • A cat rescue southwest of Ottawa is under investigation after allegations of abuse, neglect and falsified medical records have surfaced.

    • OC Transpo says the line finished the test with a 14-day rolling average on-time performance of 99.5 per cent.

    • As federal employees head into the office three days a week under the federal government's new hybrid work model, the City of Ottawa is only requiring its hybrid employees to be in the office a minimum of two days a week.

    • A Quebec-based religion says Health Canada is dragging its feet on a decision whether to allow members to use magic mushrooms in their ceremonies.

    • A 65-year-old Repentigny man is facing charges after allegedly drunkenly firing a shotgun in his apartment and injuring a young woman who was sleeping in her bed two floors above.

    • Some people living in the Le Plateau-Mont-Royal are seeing red over a new landscaping project meant to bring more green to the neighbourhood.

    • Edmonton Public Schools support workers will go on strike on Thursday.

    • A Stony Plain basketball coach has pleaded guilty to child pornography charges.

    • Two people needed to be pulled from a vehicle following a crash in northeast Edmonton Sunday evening.

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      New Brunswickers will cast their votes today in what is predicted to be a tight provincial election.

    • The investigation into the sudden death of a 19-year-old Walmart employee over the weekend is ongoing in Halifax.

    • A very fair and mild October weekend allowed for a few recording-setting high temperatures in the Maritimes.

    • Starting next month, all buses in Manitoba will require functional heating systems for passengers.

    • A 17-year-old girl is facing charges in connection with a machete attack involving two teenage boys outside a Winnipeg school.

    • A Canadian consumer advocacy group is sounding the alarm over a proposed Autopac rate increase by Manitoba Public Insurance (MPI).

    • SaskPower is warning customers of an email scam currently making the rounds.

    • Regina police are asking the public for help as it searches for a suspect involved in an assault in the North Central area on Sunday.

    • A construction firm has pled guilty in the case of a serious workplace injury in 2023 near Moose Jaw.

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    • Testimony continued Monday at the trial of Erick Buhr, who has pleaded not guilty to the second-degree murder of his grandmother, Viola Erb.

    • A Waterloo, Ont. tech company says it鈥檚 been removed from the U.S. Department of Commerce鈥檚 entity list, after previously supplying technology allegedly used for mass surveillance and censorship.

    • A Saskatoon LGBTQ+ advocate says if the Saskatchewan Party's proposed change room policy had been in place when he was a kid, he would not have survived high school.

    • The RCMP says a 32-year-old Saskatchewan woman has been charged with criminal negligence and impaired driving after causing a fatal collision in the wrong lane of Highway 11.

    • Saskatoon police have arrested a woman who investigators believe may have pushed a 76-year-old man down a flight of stairs on Friday night.

    • The defence for a woman accused of second-degree murder in Sudbury admits she stole from the male victim, but insists the man was already dead when she arrived in his apartment.

    • An Indigenous group in northwestern Ontario shut down the highway for a couple of hours Monday morning in protest after ancestral remains were found at a construction site.

    • A 29-year-old man believed to be carrying a loaded pistol is wanted on Manitoulin Island by Anishnaabe police who say they suspect he fled to Sagamok First Nation.

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    • Police charged a motorist after a vehicle crashed into a home in Innisfil Monday afternoon.

    • Officials say a candle caused a fire that destroyed a mobile trailer in Oro-Medonte early Friday morning.

    • The Windsor Liberation Zone organizers are pleased that the University of Windsor will not reconsider two agreements made with pro-Palestinian protestors. The agreements were signed after a nine-week occupation.

    • The Windsor Goodfellows are preparing for the return of their annual newspaper campaign next month as demand at the non-profit organization soars.

    • Windsor police officers have arrested a suspect and seized four shotguns after an investigation.

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    • A police investigation is underway after a cyclist was struck and killed by a pickup truck while participating in an organized bicycle race on Vancouver Island.

    • Dave Lindsey began growing giant pumpkins to bring a bit of magic to his grandkids' Halloween.

    • A U.S. District Court judge in Montana has sentenced a 27-year-old man from Kelowna, B.C., to 18 months in prison for using fake names to buy guns with the aim of selling them in Canada.

    • Nearly two years after a man was stabbed to death in downtown Kelowna, RCMP have made an arrest in the case.

    • Lethbridge police are advising the public of officer training on Tuesday that will happen in two different venues throughout the day.

    • Calgary scored three times in the first, and three times in the third as the Hitmen defeated the Lethbridge Hurricanes 6-1 Saturday at the Saddledome.

    • The last students to graduate from Lethbridge College will make history this weekend as they cross the stage at fall convocation.

    • An Indigenous group in northwestern Ontario shut down the highway for a couple of hours Monday morning in protest after ancestral remains were found at a construction site.

    • The owners of 73 vacant properties in the Sault have been fined for violations of the city's vacant properties bylaw, including 33 owned by a firm going through a high-profile insolvency process.

    • Three young children were unhurt when a vehicle they were in crashed into a ditch Oct. 14 in Sandy Lake First Nation in northwestern Ontario.

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