It鈥檚 beginning to look like a three-horse race. The Conservatives, Liberals and NDP are closer than they ever have been over the past two years, as the Tories continue to inch up on the .

Justin Trudeau鈥檚 Liberals fell to 54 points out of a possible 100 this week, putting them within a point of Prime Minister Stephen Harper鈥檚 Conservatives.

  • Liberals: 54 (down two points)
  • Conservatives: 53 (up one point)
  • NDP: 51 (down one point)
  • Green: 33 (no change)
  • Bloc: 26 (no change)

A volatile electorate

The small margin that separates Canada鈥檚 three leading political parties speaks to the level of volatility in the electorate. That all three parties seem to have relatively equal standing amongst the population could indicate voters feel they鈥檙e faced with a series of imperfect choices.

Some portion of the population is likely annoyed with some of the choices the Conservatives have made under Harper. On the other hand, while Trudeau might look like he has potential, people are unsure whether it鈥檚 the right time for him to take the reins.

And though Thomas Mulcair has done well leading the official opposition, he鈥檚 the head of a party that has never been in power on a federal level.

 

 

For the first time since 2013, the three main federal parties are within three points of each other.

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An unusually busy summer

On the political front, summer is generally when things gear down. But with a scheduled October election looming, the warmest months of the year will be the most critical for party leaders as they try to sway voters over to their respective sides.

As it stands right now, Harper leads another close race for preferred prime minister amongst those polled. The Conservative leader sits at 31 per cent, followed closely by Trudeau at 28 per cent. Mulcair trails the two at 21 per cent of the vote, though sits right around his two-year high in the category. Fourteen per cent of those polled were also undecided on the issue.

The Nanos Party Power Index comprises a basket of political goods that includes ballot preferences, accessible voters, preferred PM views and evaluations of the leaders. It is modeled similar to a standard confidence index. It is a random telephone survey conducted with live agents, reaching out to Canadians through a land- and cell-line dual frame sample.