The Liberal Party鈥檚 popularity is slipping on the heels of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau鈥檚 10-stop cross-country town hall tour, as mounting concern about Canada-U.S. trade relations and the cash-for-access controversy erodes his comfortable advantage over opposition leaders, according to the latest Nanos Weekly National Ballot Tracking.

The data shows the Liberals鈥� current ballot support slipping below 40 per cent, as the opposition Conservatives climb into the 30 per cent range. The NDP has flat-lined in recent weeks, garnering favour with 16 per cent of Canadians surveyed.

鈥淛ustin Trudeau has the advantage, but we are seeing a negative trend line,鈥� pollster Nik Nanos told CTV鈥檚 Power Play. 鈥淯sually when the Prime Minister of Canada goes on a charm offensive out to talk to Canadians, it鈥檚 intended to drive the numbers up.鈥�

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Nanos points to a confluence of events, including the ongoing spotlight on Liberal fundraising activities where well-heeled donors pay to attend exclusive events where they can bend the ears of key policy makers, and growing uncertainty around Canada鈥檚 future trade dealing with the U.S. under President Donald Trump.

鈥淚 would say that there is a dark cloud right now in terms of our relationship with the United States, just because the level of uncertainty is so high,鈥� he said. 鈥淭he reality is people are worried about NAFTA.鈥�

On Monday, Canada鈥檚 ambassador to the U.S. David MacNaughton warned Canada could become 鈥渃ollateral damage鈥� in the Trump administration鈥檚 push to rethink trade deals.

However, Stephen Schwarzman, who leads Trump鈥檚 Strategic and Policy Forum, said Canada need not be 鈥渆normously worried鈥� about a looming trade overhaul following a private meeting with Trudeau during the recent two-day ministers鈥� retreat in Calgary.

Nanos declined to speculate about Kevin O鈥橪eary鈥檚 impact on the Conservative's momentum following the reality TV personality and businessman鈥檚 recent entrance into the party鈥檚 leadership race, saying only that his presence may be causing other contenders to 鈥渦p their game on the policy front.鈥�

Wynne contagion weighs on Trudeau

Nanos also notes Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne鈥檚 waning popularity may be partially to blame for tarnishing the broader Liberal brand. Harsh criticism aimed at Wynne over soaring hydro bills has put the province鈥檚 Liberal and Conservative parties in a dead heat among those surveyed in the province.

Methodology

The data is based on a dual frame (land + cell-lines) random telephone interviews using live agents of 1,000 Canadians using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews, where each week the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added.

A random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians is accurate ±3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.