Liberal strongholds under threat, ballot and leadership support slipping: Nanos tracking
The federal opposition Conservatives have widened their lead over other parties when it comes to ballot support and leadership, with the minority Liberals now threatened in areas that were strongholds for them in the previous election, according to the latest Nanos Research tracking.
(Nanos Research)
The latest -- in which those surveyed are asked whether they'd consider voting for each of the federal parties -- shows Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives leading at 35.2 per cent, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals at 27.7 per cent – more than seven percentage points behind. The two parties were statistically tied a few months ago, each hovering around 33 per cent on Feb. 10. But since then, the Liberals have been on a negative trajectory. Jagmeet Singh's NDP, meanwhile, is sitting in third at 21.7 per cent.
Nik Nanos, Â鶹ӰÊÓ' pollster and chair of Nanos Research, says the drop in Liberal support is not being driven by a bump in Conservative numbers, which have not risen significantly since February.
"But where the change is, is in the Liberal numbers. They're down," said Nanos on the latest episode of Â鶹ӰÊÓ Trend Line. "Whenever the Liberal numbers have anything with a two in front of it, it's not good for (them)."
And when the NDP's ballot numbers get into 20s, it creates a "perfect scenario for the Conservatives" because it results in the splitting of the progressive vote, said Nanos.
Poilievre, meanwhile, also holds the advantage when it comes to the question of who Canadians prefer to be prime minister. The Conservative leader is at 28.3 per cent, followed by Trudeau at 23.9 per cent.
(Nanos Research)
SEAT PROJECTIONS
The outlook for the Liberals gets even bleaker when you examine Nanos's monthly seat projections.
The latest projections – for which polling data is modelled out to show which party's positioned to win more seats if there were to be an election – show Trudeau's Liberals down everywhere except Quebec and the Prairies (where they haven't gone down, but remain flat).
Nanos said ridings currently either in play or at risk for the Liberals include those in Atlantic Canada, Ontario and British Columbia, which are "massively important battlegrounds." He pointed out ridings in the Greater Toronto Area and the "905 belt" as examples of Liberal areas of strength in the last election, but where they're now losing ground.
GTA May 2023 projections versus 2021 federal election outcomes (Nanos Research)
The GTA map on the right, above, shows a healthy amount of red, representing ridings where the Liberals were winners in the 2021 federal election. It shows the GTA remained a Liberal stronghold, with those ridings helping the party win another minority government. The map on the left, however, represents Nanos's latest seat projections and a changing picture for the Liberals.
"The other map, if you see something that's black, it's the margin of victory – it's too close to call because it's less than two per cent," said Nanos. "If it's grey, it's two to seven per cent. Check out all the ridings that are basically now in play."
Those ridings include those in the Oakville and Mississauga areas, as well as Durham Region and Cambridge.
"Looking at this battleground, like battleground Toronto, I think the Liberals have to be thinking about their strategy and how they're going to try to hold on, because they're in a minority position already. Losing seats in Toronto just is fundamentally bad news for the red team. And there are some critical suburban ridings, the Mississaugas, Oakvilles, … that are in play.
Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts. The next episode comes out Wednesday, May 24.
IN DEPTH
Jagmeet Singh pulls NDP out of deal with Trudeau Liberals, takes aim at Poilievre Conservatives
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has pulled his party out of the supply-and-confidence agreement that had been helping keep Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's minority Liberals in power.
'Not the result we wanted': Trudeau responds after surprise Conservative byelection win in Liberal stronghold
Conservative candidate Don Stewart winning the closely-watched Toronto-St. Paul's federal byelection, and delivering a stunning upset to Justin Trudeau's candidate Leslie Church in the long-time Liberal riding, has sent political shockwaves through both parties.
'We will go with the majority': Liberals slammed by opposition over proposal to delay next election
The federal Liberal government learned Friday it might have to retreat on a proposal within its electoral reform legislation to delay the next vote by one week, after all opposition parties came out to say they can't support it.
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Conservatives call on Elon Musk to step in after Liberals provide loan to Ottawa-based satellite operator
A $2.14-billion federal loan for an Ottawa-based satellite operator has Canadian politicians arguing about whether American billionaire Elon Musk poses a national security risk.
Sunken superyacht believed to contain watertight safes with sensitive intelligence data
Specialist divers surveying the wreckage of the US$40 million superyacht that sank off Sicily in August, killing seven people including British tech tycoon Mike Lynch, have asked for heightened security to guard the vessel, over concerns that sensitive data locked in its safes may interest foreign governments, multiple sources told CNN.
Myths busted and lessons learned: John Vennavally-Rao on his surgery to reverse his ostomy
Twenty-seven year Â鶹ӰÊÓ reporter and anchor John Vennavally-Rao shares his story of what it was like to have an ostomy bag as part of his health-care battle. 'I’m grateful for what it did to extend my life,' he writes in a personal column for CTVNews.ca.
The British Columbia election campaign is set to officially start today, with Lt.-Gov. Janet Austin issuing the writ for the Oct. 19 vote.
A northern Ontario man is facing a $12,000 fine after illegally shooting a moose near the Batchawan River.
Heavy metal exposure could increase cardiovascular disease risk, study finds
A new study is adding to emerging research showing that exposure to metals such as cadmium, uranium and copper may also be associated with the leading cause of death worldwide, cardiovascular disease.
Unusual flippered feet are making their way into the Saint Lawrence River this weekend. Led by underwater explorer and filmmaker Nathalie Lasselin, volunteer divers are combing the riverbed near Beauharnois in Montérégie to remove hundreds of tires that have been polluting the aquatic environment for decades.
Hezbollah targets base near Haifa after Israeli strike in Beirut killed 37, including top commander
The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah announced that it fired a barrage of missiles at a military base deep inside Israel early Sunday following an Israeli airstrike more than a day earlier that killed at least 37 people, including one of the militant group’s senior leaders as well as women and children.
A sea lion swam free after a rescue team disentangled it near Vancouver Island earlier this week.
Local Spotlight
Cole Haas is more than just an avid fan of the F.W. Johnson Wildcats football team. He's a fixture on the sidelines, a source of encouragement, and a beloved member of the team.
Getting a photograph of a rainbow? Common. Getting a photo of a lightning strike? Rare. Getting a photo of both at the same time? Extremely rare, but it happened to a Manitoba photographer this week.
An anonymous business owner paid off the mortgage for a New Brunswick not-for-profit.
They say a dog is a man’s best friend. In the case of Darren Cropper, from Bonfield, Ont., his three-year-old Siberian husky and golden retriever mix named Bear literally saved his life.
A growing group of brides and wedding photographers from across the province say they have been taken for tens of thousands of dollars by a Barrie, Ont. wedding photographer.
Paleontologists from the Royal B.C. Museum have uncovered "a trove of extraordinary fossils" high in the mountains of northern B.C., the museum announced Thursday.
The search for a missing ancient 28-year-old chocolate donkey ended with a tragic discovery Wednesday.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police is celebrating an important milestone in the organization's history: 50 years since the first women joined the force.
It's been a whirlwind of joyful events for a northern Ontario couple who just welcomed a baby into their family and won the $70 million Lotto Max jackpot last month.