Here's what the federal government's tight fiscal outlook could mean for pharmacare
Liberals and New Democrats appear to be inching closer to an agreement on proposed pharmacare legislation, but a national drug plan may be farther out of reach than ever after this week's federal fiscal update.
The Liberals promised to table and pass the legislation by the end of the year as part of a supply-and-confidence deal, in which the NDP is supporting the minority government on key votes in exchange for progress on shared priorities.
It is now nearly impossible for a bill to pass before the holiday break, which begins in just three weeks.
But the NDP appears to be willing to offer some wiggle room on the terms of the deal if it means the Liberals table a plan for a universal, single-payer drug program.
"We are more interested in making sure we do this right, and so far, we're moving in the right direction," NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said Wednesday.
"But we're going to be resolute and firm on that protection of Canadians."
The negotiations are taking place as Ottawa pledges to install new fiscal guardrails that would keep deficits below one per cent of gross domestic product beginning in the 2026-2027 financial year.
Health Minister Mark Holland suggested on Wednesday that the economic climate is one of the reasons negotiations with the NDP are taking so long.
"There's a lot of dynamic factors to consider, and we want to make sure that it's right," he said.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland released a fall economic statement on Tuesday that outlined how little room the government will have to spend on big new programs until 2027 at the earliest.
That's the first year the government currently expects to post a deficit that is smaller than one per cent of projected GDP.
Pharmacare did not merit a mention in the government's budget update, but that doesn't come as a surprise.
The legislation won't necessarily commit the government to actually launch a national pharmacare plan, so it doesn't need to cost the government anything in the short term, said Marcel Saulnier, an associate with Santis Health.
"I think the financial constraints right now are very significant and the political issues, both federally and between the feds and the provinces, make it challenging," said Saulnier, who served as executive director for an advisory committee on the implementation of national pharmacare in 2018.
"I would imagine that they would be aiming to create something that looks more like a framework, that doesn't necessarily have any money attached to it."
Still, legislation alone won't make prescription drugs any more available without additional federal investment, and he worries the financial bind could prevent that from happening.
The parliamentary budget officer estimates that universal, single-payer pharmacare would cost the public sector an estimated additional $11.2 billion if it were fully implemented next year, and that would increase to $13.4 billion in 2027-2028.
The PBO also found there would be economy-wide savings of $1.4 billion next year if such a program were implemented, rising to $2.2 billion in 2027-2028, thanks to the improved purchasing power of a single-payer system.
Scotiabank economist Rebekah Young is skeptical there's enough fiscal room in the public purse for the added expense, unless the economic outlook changes.
"The path they've set out doesn't build in room for a full-blown pharmacare program," Young said in an interview on Thursday.
"Maybe they go back to the drawing board and look at, if we can't afford a universal pharma, what's the next best thing?"
The Liberals promised to establish pharmacare during the 2019 election campaign, and have taken some steps toward realizing that promise.
The government appointed a transition office to create a Canadian Drug Agency and launched a national strategy for drugs to treat rare diseases.
Singh accused the Liberals of bringing a first draft of the legislation to their New Democrat dance partners that favoured pharmaceutical companies. He said he would reject anything that did not make a commitment to a single-payer system.
That commitment was solidified in October when the party's members passed an emergency resolution at their policy convention that urged the NDP to withdraw support from the supply-and-confidence deal if the Liberals do not commit to "a universal, comprehensive and entirely public pharmacare program."
If the government is intent on securing a deal with the NDP, it could always abandon the fiscal restraints it committed to this week, as it has in the past, Lakehead University economics professor Livio Di Matteo said.
"Most government spending plans (in) Canada at the federal level have not been limited by any deficit. They usually set guardrails and then exceed them anyway," said Di Matteo, who specializes in health economics and public finance.
Canadians will learn more about how much the initiative could cost when legislation is finally tabled in the House of Commons.
The House is expected to rise for a holiday break on Dec. 15.
In a statement, Holland's press secretary Chris Aoun said the minister's goal remains to table the Liberals' pharmacare legislation this year.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 23, 2023.
IN DEPTH
Jagmeet Singh pulls NDP out of deal with Trudeau Liberals, takes aim at Poilievre Conservatives
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has pulled his party out of the supply-and-confidence agreement that had been helping keep Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's minority Liberals in power.
'Not the result we wanted': Trudeau responds after surprise Conservative byelection win in Liberal stronghold
Conservative candidate Don Stewart winning the closely-watched Toronto-St. Paul's federal byelection, and delivering a stunning upset to Justin Trudeau's candidate Leslie Church in the long-time Liberal riding, has sent political shockwaves through both parties.
'We will go with the majority': Liberals slammed by opposition over proposal to delay next election
The federal Liberal government learned Friday it might have to retreat on a proposal within its electoral reform legislation to delay the next vote by one week, after all opposition parties came out to say they can't support it.
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Conservatives call on Elon Musk to step in after Liberals provide loan to Ottawa-based satellite operator
A $2.14-billion federal loan for an Ottawa-based satellite operator has Canadian politicians arguing about whether American billionaire Elon Musk poses a national security risk.
Sunken superyacht believed to contain watertight safes with sensitive intelligence data
Specialist divers surveying the wreckage of the US$40 million superyacht that sank off Sicily in August, killing seven people including British tech tycoon Mike Lynch, have asked for heightened security to guard the vessel, over concerns that sensitive data locked in its safes may interest foreign governments, multiple sources told CNN.
Myths busted and lessons learned: John Vennavally-Rao on his surgery to reverse his ostomy
Twenty-seven year Â鶹ӰÊÓ reporter and anchor John Vennavally-Rao shares his story of what it was like to have an ostomy bag as part of his health-care battle. 'I’m grateful for what it did to extend my life,' he writes in a personal column for CTVNews.ca.
The British Columbia election campaign is set to officially start today, with Lt.-Gov. Janet Austin issuing the writ for the Oct. 19 vote.
A northern Ontario man is facing a $12,000 fine after illegally shooting a moose near the Batchawan River.
Heavy metal exposure could increase cardiovascular disease risk, study finds
A new study is adding to emerging research showing that exposure to metals such as cadmium, uranium and copper may also be associated with the leading cause of death worldwide, cardiovascular disease.
Unusual flippered feet are making their way into the Saint Lawrence River this weekend. Led by underwater explorer and filmmaker Nathalie Lasselin, volunteer divers are combing the riverbed near Beauharnois in Montérégie to remove hundreds of tires that have been polluting the aquatic environment for decades.
Hezbollah targets base near Haifa after Israeli strike in Beirut killed 37, including top commander
The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah announced that it fired a barrage of missiles at a military base deep inside Israel early Sunday following an Israeli airstrike more than a day earlier that killed at least 37 people, including one of the militant group’s senior leaders as well as women and children.
A sea lion swam free after a rescue team disentangled it near Vancouver Island earlier this week.
Local Spotlight
Cole Haas is more than just an avid fan of the F.W. Johnson Wildcats football team. He's a fixture on the sidelines, a source of encouragement, and a beloved member of the team.
Getting a photograph of a rainbow? Common. Getting a photo of a lightning strike? Rare. Getting a photo of both at the same time? Extremely rare, but it happened to a Manitoba photographer this week.
An anonymous business owner paid off the mortgage for a New Brunswick not-for-profit.
They say a dog is a man’s best friend. In the case of Darren Cropper, from Bonfield, Ont., his three-year-old Siberian husky and golden retriever mix named Bear literally saved his life.
A growing group of brides and wedding photographers from across the province say they have been taken for tens of thousands of dollars by a Barrie, Ont. wedding photographer.
Paleontologists from the Royal B.C. Museum have uncovered "a trove of extraordinary fossils" high in the mountains of northern B.C., the museum announced Thursday.
The search for a missing ancient 28-year-old chocolate donkey ended with a tragic discovery Wednesday.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police is celebrating an important milestone in the organization's history: 50 years since the first women joined the force.
It's been a whirlwind of joyful events for a northern Ontario couple who just welcomed a baby into their family and won the $70 million Lotto Max jackpot last month.