Â鶹ӰÊÓ

When Canadians reach for a jar of honey or sizzle bacon to a crisp in the morning, terrorism is likely the last thing on their minds.

But according to John Keogh, a supply chain expert who has advised governments and agencies from around the world, the threat of food terrorism is real – and he theorized that could be at play in the Canada-China dispute.

Last Wednesday, China unilaterally blocked all imports of Canadian meat following the discovery of ractopamine – an additive that's banned in China – in Canadian pork products. When the Canadian Food Inspection Agency asked to review the pork's export certificate, they found it was inauthentic.

The RCMP is now investigating the fraudulent certificate.

In an interview with CTV's Power Play last Thursday, Keogh said it's not impossible that the fraudulent certificate that bruised Chinese consumer confidence in Canadian products could be the latest escalation of a diplomatic feud between the two countries following Canada's arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou.

"Could someone in a foreign government or a foreign agency interfere by hacking into a Canadian system and putting in false documentation? Absolutely," said Keogh.

However, there is no concrete evidence indicating that the Chinese government had a hand in the fraudulent certificate.

Keogh said that Canada signed an agreement with the Chinese government as recently as 2017 to put a stop to the countries' hacking of one another's business and trade secrets.

"I'm pretty sure that Canada was not hacking into the Chinese systems…but we know that the Chinese were and CSIS have picked up on that in the past," said Keogh.

For former Canadian Security Intelligence Service director Richard Fadden, the theory seems a bit far-fetched.

"I think that this is a possibility in theory, but I really don't understand why the Chinese government would feel it necessary to do this, given everything they have at their disposal," he said.

Fadden pointed to the examples of previous diplomatic disputes between China and other countries, such as Norway. When Norway issued a Nobel Peace Prize to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo, China unabashedly expressed its dissatisfaction by slapping import controls on Norwegian salmon.

"They play hardball when they're involved in trade disputes, and there's a lot of evidence of this around the world," Fadden said.

What is food terrorism?

The central issue in this one hypothetical that could be at play in the Canada-China dispute is a concept called "food terrorism." It's just one of what Keogh called the four pillars of the food system: food fraud, food safety, food defence and food security.

In China, food fraud is a common issue. Residents will pay a premium for brands from countries they trust – like Canada – and organized criminals are acutely aware of this reality.

In an interview with CTV National News last Thursday, Keogh said criminals will copy Canadian branding and packaging then substitute the quality product inside with their own cheaper, substandard product.

According to Keogh – who lived in Asia for six years – that means that the familiar face Chinese shoppers trust on the package of gooey honey could have an entirely different product inside.

While Keogh says food fraud is a very real concern in China, food terrorism takes on a whole other dimension – an active desire to harm a population, or even to destabilize an economy.

"[Food terrorism entails] a malicious intent to sabotage a supply chain or to deliberately contaminate a supply chain," Keogh said. "It's the deliberate contamination of a product with either biological or other means, including physical aspects or putting something into a product that may cause harm to a population."

Keogh went on to say that there are different forms this "food terrorism" can take.

"The second component of this is also the deliberate sabotage of a particular company, or a particular brand, or a particular country…food terrorism extends to trying to destabilize an economy and certainly, in this case, the Canadian meat industry will suffer significantly from this."

Because of eroding consumer confidence in the 7.66 million kilograms of Canadian beef that were exported to China in the first four months of 2019 alone – products that sell at a premium in Chinese markets – Keogh said the Canadian economy will take a hit.

"Because Canada is in pre-election phase, this could also cause some problems for the Liberal government," Keogh said.

RCMP investigation ongoing

When asked whether "food terrorism" was a potential scenario they are exploring in their investigation, the RCMP only confirmed the existence of the investigation. They would not provide further comment in order to "protect the integrity of the overall investigative process," according to a statement to Â鶹ӰÊÓ.

Agriculture Minister Marie-Claude Bibeau said the government is "working around the clock to investigate this matter."

Her own statement, also provided to Â鶹ӰÊÓ, echoed the RCMP’s refusal to speculate about an ongoing investigation.

"The origin of the inauthentic export certificate, and the products associated with that certificate, is unknown. This matter has been referred to law enforcement authorities. As the investigation is ongoing, it is premature to speculate, therefore we cannot comment further at this time," she said.

The Chinese Embassy also refused to comment.

"In principle, we don't make comment on the remarks of scholars or experts which do not represent the stance of Canadian government," the embassy said in a statement emailed to Â鶹ӰÊÓ.

It also pressed for more details about Keogh – such as his full name and title – and referred Â鶹ӰÊÓ to the remarks from the Spokesperson of Chinese Embassy on Canadian meat exports.

"These forged certificates were sent to the Chinese regulatory authorities through Canadian official certificate notification channel, which reflects that the Canadian meat export supervision system exists obvious safety loopholes," read the remarks, which can be found on the Chinese Embassy's website.

Canada in 'sensitive time' right now: Keogh

Tensions have been ratcheting up between Canada and China since Meng's arrest, which was made in response to an extradition request from the United States. Chinese authorities have detained two Canadians, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, on espionage charges in apparent retaliation for Meng's arrest.

"Canada is in a very sensitive time right now, of course, with the political sensitivities that are going on," said Keogh.

"There could be an element of sabotage [in the fraudulent certificate], and this could be caused by a government or a third party who wants to damage Brand Canada…we have an election coming up, so this is perfect timing if somebody wants to destabilize the government in Canada, and also destabilize the economy," said Keogh.

When presented with the hypothetical, former Canadian Ambassador to China Guy Saint-Jacques said it's "difficult to say" whether this concept of food terrorism could be at play in the latest developments of the Canada-China dispute.

"If China were to engage in such behavior, it would be a new low," Saint-Jacques said.

Saint-Jacques did point out that the Chinese have previously hit the United States with targeted sanctions in order to do political damage.

"When they applied their initial tariffs to the U.S., they aim at electoral districts that had supported Trump. In the case of pork, they know that 45 per cent of exports come from Québec where the Liberals need lots of support if they want to be reelected," he said in an email to Â鶹ӰÊÓ.

"This being said, they are not particularly enamored with the Conservatives," he added.

While International Trade Diversification Minister Jim Carr has suggested the fraudulent certificate could have been the result of smugglers trying to take advantage of the Canadian brand in order to access the Chinese market, the RCMP investigation into the issue is ongoing.

Still, Keogh said China's unilateral banning of Canadian pork was a "surprise."

"I think that's an unfair move, I think it's a knee-jerk reaction, and one has to wonder if there's a political motivation behind that in the absence of solid evidence," he said.

However, Fadden – who spent four years as Canada’s top spymaster – said that in the absence of any actual evidence to back the theory, "we have to stay neutral."

"I think our relations are sufficiently complicated right now that it does no one any favours by directly accusing them," Fadden said.

"My gut reaction is that they don't need to do this, and if they wanted to make a point again that they're irritated with Canada, there are any number of ways they could do it."