麻豆影视

Skip to main content

Federal Conservatives open up 7-point lead over Liberals to start 2023: Nanos

Share

The federal Conservatives have gained a over the Liberals in the latest weekly ballot tracking by Nanos Research.

According to 1,084 random interviews conducted during the week ending Jan. 13, Pierre Poilievre鈥檚 Conservatives would capture 35.6 per cent of the vote if an election were held today, while the Liberals would get 28.3 per cent, the NDP 20.7 per cent, the Bloc 7.4 per cent, the Green Party 5.8 per cent and the People's Party 2.1 per cent.

The Conservative lead 鈥 which has been creeping up steadily since December -- is now outside the margin of error, and with the NDP increasing their share of the ballot, the Liberals are having their support chipped away at, both sides. In an interview on 麻豆影视' Trend Line podcast, Nanos Research founder Nik Nanos called the numbers 鈥渧ery grim" for the Liberals.

"This is the worst way for the Liberals to start off their year, because they're basically back on their heels, and it looks like a significant number of Canadians are looking at the Conservatives," Nanos told host Michael Stittle on Wednesday.

"I think what the Liberals have to worry about is a one-two-punch, basically getting squeezed by the Conservatives on the one side, the New Democrats on the other, and vote splits that will be working against the Liberals."

IS HEALTH CRISIS TESTING AGREEMENT WITH NDP?

Nanos said heading into the 2023 parliamentary season, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau鈥檚 government might have its supply-and-confidence deal with the NDP tested, as the Liberals look to forge health-care funding agreements with the provinces while balancing outstanding health commitments on dental and pharmacare as part of the parliamentary pact.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is calling on the Liberals to make protecting the universal public system a condition in any coming deal with the provinces to increase the Canada Health Transfer. Though, Singh has yet to say whether he鈥檇 be willing to pull out of the agreement that鈥檚 poised to see the Liberals stay in power until 2025 over the issue.

According to the latest Nanos issue tracking, health care is the top unprompted national issue of concern for Canadians, followed by inflation, jobs and economy and the environment. Nanos pointed out that health care has traditionally been a strong policy area for the NDP.

"The New Democrats have a big interest in protecting public health care," he said.

"So expect Singh to put the political vice grips on the Liberals to protect and enhance public health care and access to public health care. I think that the initial battle lines might actually be between the New Democrats and the Liberals on this issue."

BIDEN鈥橲 VISIT PRESENTS OPPORTUNITY

He said the Liberals may also want to use the 2023 federal budget as an opportunity to prove they have a strong vision for their next mandate and that they're not just coasting through this one. Following the upcoming March visit by U.S. President Joe Biden to Canada, Nanos said the government would be smart to announce what they accomplished in meetings with the Biden administration.

"It's not enough just to say, 'Oh, we're friends, we like each other, we have a great relationship,'" he said. "What the Liberals have to do, ideally, is put something in the window in terms of something specific being accomplished in the bi-national relationship."

TRUDEAU STILL PREFERRED PM

Another area where Nanos said the Liberals might find a foothold is public perception of the federal leaders. According to the research firm's latest Preferred PM numbers, while the Conservative party is gaining favour among those surveyed, its leader Poilievre, is statistically tied with Trudeau.

Nanos tracking has Trudeau as the preferred choice for prime minister at 30 per cent of Canadians, followed by Poilievre at 27.5 per cent, Singh at 16.2 per cent, Elizabeth May at 4.2 per cent and Maxime Bernier at two per cent. Sixteen per cent of Canadians were unsure whom they preferred.

For this reason, he said the Liberals may choose to concentrate on undermining Poilievre's "brand" this year, ahead of the 2025 election.

"(Poilievre) and his brand will be the main focus of a lot of the political dialogue in 2023 as he tries to build up his brand and the Liberals try to tear him down," he said.

"I would expect that the Liberals are probably going to come out swinging through 2023, because they've got to change the trend line."

METHODOLOGY

Each week, Nanos measures the political pulse of Canadian voters through hundreds of telephone surveys. The data is based on random interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (recruited by RDD land- and cell-line sample), using a four-week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted using the latest census information for Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four-week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added.

A random survey of 1,000 respondents in Canada is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

More on Nanos鈥 political and issue tracking methodology

 With files from Senior Digital Parliamentary Reporter Rachel Aiello

IN DEPTH

Opinion

opinion

opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike

When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.

CTVNews.ca Top Stories

Why brain aging can vary dramatically between people

Researchers are uncovering deeper insights into how the human brain ages and what factors may be tied to healthier cognitive aging, including exercising, avoiding tobacco, speaking a second language or even playing a musical instrument.

The union representing some 1,200 dockworkers at the Port of Montreal has overwhelmingly rejected a deal with their employers association.

A man who was critically injured in a police-involved shooting in Hamilton late Sunday afternoon has died in hospital, says the province鈥檚 police watchdog.

opinion

opinion How to transition from renting to owning a home in Canada

In his column for CTVNews.ca, personal finance contributor Christopher Liew offers a step-by-step guide on how to make the shift from renting to becoming a homeowner, and what you can start doing today to help the process go smoother.

Local Spotlight

For the second year in a row, the 鈥楪ift-a-Family鈥 campaign is hoping to make the holidays happier for children and families in need throughout Barrie.

Some of the most prolific photographers behind CTV Skywatch Pics of the Day use the medium for fun, therapy, and connection.

A young family from Codroy Valley, N.L., is happy to be on land and resting with their newborn daughter, Miley, after an overwhelming, yet exciting experience at sea.

As Connor Nijsse prepared to remove some old drywall during his garage renovation, he feared the worst.

A group of women in Chester, N.S., has been busy on the weekends making quilts 鈥 not for themselves, but for those in need.

A Vancouver artist whose streetside singing led to a chance encounter with one of the world's biggest musicians is encouraging aspiring performers to try their hand at busking.

Ten-thousand hand-knit poppies were taken from the Sanctuary Arts Centre and displayed on the fence surrounding the Dartmouth Cenotaph on Monday.

A Vancouver man is saying goodbye to his nine-to-five and embarking on a road trip from the Canadian Arctic to Antarctica.

Stay Connected