Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau continues to inch upwards in polling on which party leader voters would prefer as prime minister according to the latest tracking conducted by Nanos Research for 麻豆影视 and The Globe and Mail.

The latest numbers show Trudeau continues to maintain a marginal advantage over Conservative Leader Stephen Harper on the question of preferred PM. According to the latest numbers:

  • 34.6 per cent of respondents said they would prefer Trudeau as prime minister
  • 30.0 per cent preferred Harper
  • 19.3 per cent chose Mulcair
  • 5.6 per cent said May
  • 2.2 per cent said Duceppe
  • 8.4 per cent were unsure

When asked about their second choice for preferred prime minister:

  • 38 per cent of respondents who picked Harper first had no second choice, while another 37 per cent said they would choose Trudeau
  • 53 per cent of those who picked Trudeau first said they would pick Mulcair second
  • 63 per cent of those who preferred Mulcair said Trudeau would be their second choice

Survey methodology

A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprising 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Nanos Party Power Index

On the Nanos Party Power Index, which is a composite of measures including ballot preferences and leadership impressions, the Liberals have a noticeably higher score than the other federal parties.

The Liberals scored 58.2 out of a possible 100 points, the NDP scored 49.6 points, the Conservatives scored 48.3 points.

The Green Party scored 30.2 points, while the Bloc Quebecois scored 31.1 points (in Quebec only).

For the index, the views of 1,200 respondents are compiled into a diffusion brand index for each party, in which a 0 means the party has no brand strength and a 100 means the party has maximum brand strength.