When asked which federal leader they would prefer as prime minister, Canadians rank Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau marginally higher than Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, according to the latest tracking by Nanos Research for 麻豆影视 and the Globe and Mail.

According to the latest numbers, released on Oct. 14:

  • 33.0 per cent of respondents said they would prefer Trudeau as prime minister
  • 28.8 per cent preferred Harper
  • 19.9 per cent preferred NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair
  • 6.4 per cent preferred Green Party Leader Elizabeth May
  • 10.1 per cent were unsure

Respondents were asked "Of the current federal political party leaders, could you please rank your top two current local preferences for Prime Minister?"

Nanos preferred PM Oct. 14

Nightly tracking by Nanos Research for 麻豆影视 and the Globe and Mail, released Oct. 14. (Nanos Research)

When asked about their second choice for preferred prime minister:

  • 41 per cent of respondents who picked Harper first had no second choice
  • 52 per cent of those who picked Trudeau first said they would pick Mulcair second
  • 55 per cent of those who preferred Mulcair said Trudeau would be their second choice

Survey methodology

A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Nanos Party Power Index

On the Nanos Party Power Index, a composite of measures including ballot preferences and leadership impressions, the Liberals scored 57.4 points out of a possible 100, the NDP scored 51.1 points, and the Conservatives scored 48.3 points.

The Green Party scored 31.1 points and, in Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois scored 30.9 points.

The index measures each party's brand strength by incorporating information beyond current vote preference.

For the index, the views of 1,200 respondents are compiled into a diffusion brand index for each party, in which a 0 means the party has no brand strength and a 100 means the party has maximum brand strength.

Full survey at

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