The federal election race remains a three-way toss-up, according to the latest Nanos National Nightly Tracking for CTV and the Globe and Mail.

Voters were asked which federal parties they would consider voting for locally as a first and second choice, if the election were held today.

The Liberal Party was the first choice of 31.5 per cent of respondents, followed by the NDP at 30.8 per cent, and the Conservatives at 30.5 per cent. The poll also found 3.7 per cent of respondents would consider the Green Party as their first choice, and 9.4 per cent of Quebecers would consider voting for the Bloc Quebecois as their first choice.

The margin of error for 1,074 decided voters is ±3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Vote potential

When asked a series of independent questions as to whether respondents would consider voting or not voting for each of the federal parties, the Liberals and the NDP had the highest vote potential.

For the Liberals, 50.3 per cent of respondents said they would consider voting for the party in the federal election. The NDP had 49 per cent vote potential, followed by the Conservatives with 39.4 per cent of respondents saying they would consider voting for the Tories.

Among the other parties, 22.3 per cent of respondents said they would consider voting for the Green Party, while 23.3 per cent of respondents in Quebec said they would potentially vote for the Bloc Quebecois.

Harper, Trudeau within margin of error as preferred PM

According to the latest results from a survey conducted by Nanos Research for CTV and the Globe and Mail, the nightly tracking showed:

  • 30.1 per cent of respondents chose Harper when asked who they would prefer as prime minister
  • 28.3 per cent preferred Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau
  • 26.0 per cent preferred NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair

Meanwhile, 5.1 per cent preferred Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, 1.5 per cent preferred Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe and 9.0 per cent said they were unsure.

Survey respondents were asked "Of the current federal political party leaders, could you please rank your top two current local preferences for Prime Minister?"

Of those who chose Harper as their preferred prime minister, 35 per cent said they had no second choice.

Among those who chose Trudeau first, 54 per cent preferred Mulcair second. Of those who opted for Mulcair as their preferred prime minister, 55 per cent said Trudeau would be their second option.

Poll Methodology

The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprising 1,200 interviews. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample composed of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Full poll at

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