The most recent nightly tracking poll by Nanos Research for CTV and The Globe and Mail shows that none of the major federal parties appear to have been able to break away from the pack following Thursday night's debate.

According to the latest numbers, the three-way tie between the Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP continues.

The latest poll results show:

  • the Conservatives with 30.8 per cent support
  • the Liberals with 30.3 per cent
  • the NDP with 29.1 per cent

The Greens have 5.1 per cent support nationally, while the Bloc has 3.7 per cent support (Quebec only).

Voters were asked: "If a federal election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences?"

For this latest poll, the margin of error on 1,070 decided voters is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The Regions

  • The Liberals are leading in Atlantic Canada with 53.3 per cent, 24.3 percentage points ahead of the NDP, with 29.0 per cent.
  • In Quebec, the NDP are leading with 45.7 per cent.
  • In the Prairie provinces, the Conservatives are leading with 50.5 per cent.
  • In Ontario, the Liberals and Conservatives are within two percentage points of one another, with the Liberals at 37.3 per cent and the Conservatives at 36.0. The NDP are at 21.1 per cent in the province.
  • The Conservatives are at 35.5 per cent in British Columbia, and the NDP is at 30.8.
  • Regional margins of error: British Columbia: 8.0 per cent, Prairies: 6.7 per cent, Ontario: 5.5 per cent, Quebec: 6.1 per cent, Atlantic: 9.6 per cent.

When asked a series of independent questions as to whether they would consider or not consider voting for each of the federal parties, the poll found the Liberals had the highest number of accessible voters: 49.0 per cent said they would consider voting Liberal, while 45.5 per cent would consider voting NDP.

Meanwhile, 39.0 per cent would consider voting Conservative, while 24.0 per cent would consider voting Green. In Quebec, 26.3 per cent of Quebecers would consider voting for the Bloc Quebecois.

Second Choice

When asked to rank their second choice:

  • Of those who ranked the Liberals first, 53 per cent picked the NDP second.
  • Of those who chose the NDP as their top pick, 49 per cent said the Liberals would be their second choice.
  • Among those who favoured the Conservatives, 50 per cent said they have no second choice, 30 per cent said they would pick Liberals as their second choice, and 13 per cent said they would pick the NDP as their second choice.

Harper top choice for preferred PM

The latest nightly tracking also suggests that Conservative Leader Stephen Harper is the preferred choice for prime minister, ahead of NDP Leader Tom Mulcair and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.

Voters were asked: "Of the current federal political party leaders, please rank your top two current local preferences for prime minister?"

  • 30 per cent chose Harper
  • 26.6 per cent selected Trudeau
  • 25.5 per cent chose Mulcair

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May and Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe rounded out the top five, polling at 5.2 per cent (nationwide) and 1.9 per cent (Quebec only) respectively.

Another 10.8 per cent of respondents said they were undecided.

Poll Methodology

A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign, using live agents.

The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Full poll at

Follow on Twitter