Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau remain neck-and-neck on the preferred prime minister measure, while NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair is trending upward, according to the latest tracking by Nanos Research for 麻豆影视 and The Globe and Mail.

The results released on Oct. 9 show support for Mulcair rose for the second consecutive evening, up 2.9 per cent over the previous night, after four days of trending downward.

The latest numbers show:

  • 30.8 per cent support for Harper
  • 29.8 per cent support for Trudeau
  • 22.8 per cent support for Mulcair

Among the other federal parties, Green Party Leader Elizabeth may was the preferred PM for 4.9 per cent of respondents, while Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe had 1.9 per cent support.The remaining 9.8 per cent of respondents said they were unsure.

Of those who favoured Trudeau as their top choice, 48 per cent said Mulcair was their second choice, while 49 per cent of those who chose Mulcair said they would choose Trudeau second. Of those who chose Harper first, 36 per cent said they had no second choice.

Party Power Index

On the Nanos Party Power Index, which is a composite of several measures including ballot preferences, PM preferences, and leader impressions, the Liberals scored 54.8 points out of a possible 100, the NDP scored 51.1 points and the Conservatives scored 49.3 points.

The Green Party scored 31.5 points and the Bloc Quebecois scored 29.7 points (Quebec only).

The index measures each party's brand strength based on a set of questions about the federal parties and their leadership.

The views of 1,200 respondent are compiled into a diffusion brand index for each party, in which a 0 means the party has no brand strength and a 100 means the party has maximum brand strength.

Survey methodology

A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample composed of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Full survey at

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