The writ is dropped and the party leaders are off, each diving head-first into an 11-week election campaign 鈥� one of the longest in modern Canadian history. As the candidates hit the road, Jim Bronskill of the Canadian Press offers five key ways each leader can win votes from coast to coast.
NDP Leader Tom Mulcair
Lower expectations about Mulcair's performance in the leaders' debates
Mulcair won the reputation of prosecutor-in-chief by relentlessly grilling Harper in the House of Commons over the Senate expenses scandal. His mastery of question period has raised expectations that he'll wipe the floor with Harper and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau during the election debates.
But NDP strategists point out that leaders' debates are different, and that Mulcair -- like Trudeau -- has never taken part in such debates before. Harper has lived through four previous sets of debates. Mulcair needs only to survive the debates in order to emerge a winner, strategists say.
Knock out the two pillars of Conservative support -- Stephen Harper's reputation for good economic stewardship and ethical governance
The Tory reputation on both fronts has taken a beating lately as the economy slipped into recession, the Senate expenses scandal continued to mushroom and Harper's one-time point man on ethical issues, Dean Del Mastro, was photographed in handcuffs and leg irons after being convicted of cheating in the 2008 election.
The NDP has been siphoning off support from the Liberals, but strategists say they believe they need to shake loose "blue-orange switchers" from the Conservatives as well. That explains a recent NDP attack ad about Conservative ethical lapses, as well as Mulcair's economy-focused tour of Conservative-held ridings in Ontario.
Make the case for change
Polls suggest roughly two-thirds of Canadians want a change in government. Mulcair has to consolidate and sustain the perception that the NDP is the only party that can deliver that change; forget about the Liberals.
And he has to persuade voters that the change he's offering is not risky, as the Tories would have them believe, and is more appealing than four more years of Harper.
Completing the NDP plan
Mulcair has been unveiling chunks of his election platform for more than a year, promising to create a million $15-a-day child care spaces, cut the tax rate for small business and increase health transfers to the provinces by some $36 billion, among other things. Mulcair has promised that the platform will be fully costed, and to spell out precisely how he intends to find the money to pay for it all. That costing must be credible to dispel any qualms about the NDP's credibility as fiscal managers.
Win over the Greater Toronto Area
The GTA remains, in the words of one strategist, "the last nut to crack." The NDP is well-positioned to hang onto the majority of seats in Quebec and make gains in British Columbia, Regina and Edmonton. But it needs to see growth in the seat-rich GTA if Mulcair is going to win the election. And that means taking on the Tories.
In 2011, the Conservatives swept 32 of the 47 ridings in and around Toronto; the NDP took just eight, the Liberals seven. This time out, due to redistribution, there are 11 new ridings up for grabs, almost all in the suburbs where the Conservatives tend to do best.
Conservative Leader Stephen Harper
Focus on strategic areas of the electoral map
The Tories need to emerge victorious from the heated skirmish in the Toronto area -- in a big way. The party must also make a strong push in B.C., especially in suburban Vancouver. Some Tories believe the party should put a lot of energy into Quebec, which has proven to be challenging turf in the past. The party sees opportunity in the Quebec City area and surrounding regions. Others recommend putting the bulk of Tory efforts elsewhere -- arguing it will never be a Quebec party -- and hope for the NDP, Liberals and Bloc Quebecois split the vote.
Acknowledge he's fighting a war on two fronts
Harper must set his sights on the New Democrats, who have surged past the Liberals in opinion polls, and do it soon. The Tories have found success branding Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau as a politician who's not ready to lead. They must now brand the NDP as a party with little experience managing the economy, particularly in the key strategic provinces of Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia. Quebec has never had a provincial NDP government and it's been a long time since New Democrats have held power in B.C. or Ontario.
Hammer home the fact that Harper has more experience than his rivals
One insider wants the party to pay attention to polls that suggest Harper is seen as competent and capable. He needs to talk up his record in office, particularly on what the party sees as priority areas for Canadians: national security, jobs and the economy. He must continue to tell voters the struggling economy is affected by external turbulence around the world and that a lot of factors are outside of Canada's control. The party must reinforce the idea that a steady hand at the wheel is necessary in uncertain times, not a change at the top.
Give them more Harper
More than ever, Harper is the face of the party following the departures of prominent Conservatives across the country, including Peter MacKay, John Baird and James Moore. The Tories will have to make Harper more accessible to the public in ways other than stump speeches. Some insiders want to see women such as Lisa Raitt, Rona Ambrose and Michelle Rempel front and centre during the campaign. Others say the party has a strong backbench filled with capable future stars, noting that turnover in the ranks is a natural process.
Run a tight campaign and keep the troops motivated
The Tories have demonstrated an ability to run well-executed campaigns and its electoral machine will have to do it again to win. To keep campaign workers energized, the party will look to remind them of Harper's impact on the Conservative movement and that he has delivered on most of his 2011 promises -- as well as warn what could happen if one of the other guys wins.
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau
Perform well in the leaders' debates
That doesn't mean Trudeau must score the proverbial knock-out punch or even best his rivals on points. But he does need to exceed expectations -- which, thanks to the Tory attack ads, are low -- and demonstrate that he's a credible alternative to Prime Minister Stephen Harper. In short, he needs to perform well enough to dispel the qualms the Tory ads have stoked.
Draw attention back to the substance of his economic policies
They were overshadowed immediately after they were unveiled in May by the stunning NDP upset in Alberta and the subsequent surge in NDP support federally.
Trudeau wants to replace the Conservative child benefit regime with a single, more generous, tax-free child benefit that Liberals say will give more to all parents with household incomes of less than $150,000, while giving less to wealthier households. He's also promising to hike taxes on the wealthiest one per cent of Canadians and give an across-the-board tax cut to middle-income earners.
Contrast Trudeau's policies with those of the NDP
Liberals need to make the case that Trudeau offers real, progressive change that will actually help those who need it most, as opposed to Mulcair, whom Liberals charge would perpetuate the Tory penchant for giving benefits equally to wealthy families who don't need it.
That means emphasizing that Mulcair is opposed to hiking taxes on the wealthy, and would maintain the Conservative universal child care benefit and create one million, $15-a-day child care spaces that would be available to parents regardless of income.
Bring greater scrutiny to bear on Mulcair and the NDP
So far, Liberals grouse that the NDP has had pretty much a free ride as the Conservatives -- intent on winning important swing ridings, particularly in and around Toronto, which are largely two-way Liberal-Conservative contests -- concentrate all their firepower on Trudeau.
The Liberals can't afford to spend the kind of money Conservatives are investing in attack ads. So they'll have to find other means of drawing attention to what they maintain are Mulcair's dangerous policies -- allowing a bare majority referendum vote to trigger negotiations on Quebec secession, for instance -- and unrealistic promises, such as abolishing the Senate.
Get out the vote
For all the attention paid to the "air war" -- national leaders' tours, debates, ads -- Liberal strategists are convinced the party with the best campaign on the ground in each of the country's 338 ridings will win. Liberals have not paid as much attention as they should have to the ground war during the last two elections and are determined not to make that mistake again. They've spent considerable time, energy and resources to train local campaign teams and modernize their ground game.
Green party Leader Elizabeth May
Take advantage of the debate
Green party Leader Elizabeth May will be alongside the three major party leaders in the Aug. 6 debate organized by Maclean's magazine -- an early opportunity to capture a share of the national spotlight, as well as the attention of voters.
Get past the environment
To make a breakthrough, it's important for the party to make it clear to voters that they are about more than just environmental issues. Some might still see the Greens as a one-note party. So it needs to stress economic and social policies in addition to positions on climate change and other environmental issues.
Persuade voters the best government for Canadians is a minority
In a tight race, some voters are likely to be reluctant to vote for a party that has no real chance of forming government. But the Greens want to win enough seats in order to be in a position to sway the balance of power in a minority Parliament -- using that influence to push its policies.
Continue to build the party infrastructure
Elections bring renewed focus, energy and volunteers -- essential ingredients to long-term success.
Leverage online and social media
With less money to spend on traditional media advertising and whistle-stop tours, the party will need to be creative. That means turning to the Internet -- especially social media platforms -- to connect with potential voters.
