The latest nightly tracking by Nanos Research for 麻豆影视 and The Globe and Mail shows that the Conservatives and the Liberals are in a tight race nationally, while support for the NDP continues to slip.

Voters were asked: "If a federal election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences?"

The latest numbers show:

  • 33.0 per cent supported the Conservatives as their top choice
  • 31.6 per cent picked the Liberals as their top choice
  • 26.9 per cent chose the NDP

The results are another new low mark for the NDP since Nanos began its nightly tracking on Sept. 4. The previous low was set on Sunday, when the party was at 27.6 per cent support. Poll support for the NDP has been on the decline for the last three nights, while support for the Conservatives has increased during the same period.

The numbers show Ontario is emerging as a key battleground in the election race between the Liberals and the Conservatives. The two parties are in a dead heat in the province, with the Liberals at 38.9 per cent support and the Conservatives at 38.1 per cent. Support for the NDP has dipped in Ontario to 19.4 per cent.

Harper leads as preferred PM

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper remains on top of the preferred prime minister measure, the latest nightly tracking by Nanos Research for 麻豆影视 and the Globe and Mail shows.

For the survey, respondents were asked: "Of the current federal political party leaders, could you please rank your top two current local preferences for prime minister?"

The latest survey results show:

  • 32.4 per cent of respondents picked Harper
  • 25.9 per cent picked Trudeau
  • 23.7 per cent picked Mulcair

Harper gained a percentage point over Sunday's numbers, while Trudeau slipped by 1.9 percentage points and Mulcair rebounded slightly from 23.0 per cent.

Poll methodology

A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample composed of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error 1,062 decided voters is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The subsample for Ontario is based on 317 decided individuals. A sample of 317 respondents is accurate ±5.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Full poll at

Follow on Twitter