Don Martin: The Groundhog Day massacre casts a shadow over Conservatives tilting hard to the right
Born: August 24, 2020. Died: February 2, 2022.
Erin O’Toole’s 526-day intra-pandemic Conservative leadership has been euthanized, taken down by a mercifully quick and decisive 75-vote backstabbing from his own MPs.
It was stunningly brutal finish for a one-campaign leader, capital punishment enacted on incredibly short notice by almost two-thirds of the MPs who decreed a truer-bluer Conservative leader was needed for the next election.
Justin Trudeau, now having beaten down three Conservative leaders, must be gleefully delaying any retirement plans and trying to figure out how to force an election within the next year.
A majority Liberal government beckons as the Conservative government-in-waiting party sets out to defeat itself by isolating further to the right.
But perhaps there’s a bright lining to the dark clouds over the Conservatives.
With zero chance the Liberals can engineer another election in the next year or two, the Official Opposition has time to regroup and reset under new management.
And that manager will most likely be Ottawa MP Pierre Poilievre.
Ironically Poilievre, who was clearly leading the mutiny against O’Toole, was once a Stockwell Day staffer who berated columnists (particularly me) for delivering last rites to Day’s leadership as it went palliative in 2001.
Now a veteran MP, he is quick with a clip, articulately decisive in firm policy positions and works hard on building relationships inside the party. As my MP, I can also testify he’s an excellent constituency MP.
Trouble is, while he would make an good interim Official Opposition leader tormenting Trudeau, Poilievre only wants the big prize. And unless he has some very-well-hidden skills, he’ll be a difficult national sell on the next ballot.
The 42-year-old’s policies lean hard-right and his nasal-twanged snark needs to be softened to polish his image. Mixing it up with the anti-mandate truckers’ convoy was a mistake. And his empathy with social conservatives will give the Liberals plenty of fearmongering material.
But no matter who wins, the next leader faces a helluva challenge holding together a profoundly fractured party with far too many fringes.
The need to become more "conservative" may have been the blade pushing O’Toole of the plank, but it’s the wrong answer if the goal is to win the election in the urban Ontario battlegrounds.
And keep in mind that whoever inherits the leadership "prize" won’t have the clout that comes from leading a party poised to take power. He or she will preside over a caucus of cabinet wannabes who are resigned to be stuck as opposition critics, which makes hard discipline over the fringe elements difficult to enforce.
Still, a comeback under new leadership is not mission impossible.
If the party can shake loose from social conservative influences; preach fiscal discipline against a government engaged in runaway spending; focus policies on growing business in contrast with Liberals preoccupied with growing government; and front it all with a credible face capable of stringing nouns and verbs into straight-talking sentences, well, it could win, particularly if expiry-dated Trudeau runs again.
So if a new leader is essential, now is the best-timed push of a reset button.
And while O’Toole has more flip-flops than a Cancun lifeguard, he leaves behind lessons that should be learned by future leaders.
He understood the true-blue policies he advanced to win the leadership were incompatible with winning a general election.
It was the awkward pivot from his leadership promises to connect with mainstream polices that killed him, exacerbated by failing to communicate those changes to his MPs, who twisted in the winds of his shifting positions on carbon taxes and guns.
But whoever follows O’Toole will still have to walk a different way along the same path.
Canada desperately needs a strong Opposition against this arrogant, fearless, uncompromising government.
But if the answer is to go further and harder to the right, it sets up the Conservatives for a prolonged period in Official Opposition, if not third-party status.
After the party knifed Stockwell Day, it took four years of leadership change and chaotic party reunification to win an election.
With no adult supervision like Stephen Harper in sight, that may well be the electoral future confronting the Conservatives today.
How fitting if that repeat fate restarts on Groundhog Day.
That’s the bottom line…
IN DEPTH
Jagmeet Singh pulls NDP out of deal with Trudeau Liberals, takes aim at Poilievre Conservatives
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has pulled his party out of the supply-and-confidence agreement that had been helping keep Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's minority Liberals in power.
'Not the result we wanted': Trudeau responds after surprise Conservative byelection win in Liberal stronghold
Conservative candidate Don Stewart winning the closely-watched Toronto-St. Paul's federal byelection, and delivering a stunning upset to Justin Trudeau's candidate Leslie Church in the long-time Liberal riding, has sent political shockwaves through both parties.
'We will go with the majority': Liberals slammed by opposition over proposal to delay next election
The federal Liberal government learned Friday it might have to retreat on a proposal within its electoral reform legislation to delay the next vote by one week, after all opposition parties came out to say they can't support it.
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Conservatives call on Elon Musk to step in after Liberals provide loan to Ottawa-based satellite operator
A $2.14-billion federal loan for an Ottawa-based satellite operator has Canadian politicians arguing about whether American billionaire Elon Musk poses a national security risk.
Sunken superyacht believed to contain watertight safes with sensitive intelligence data
Specialist divers surveying the wreckage of the US$40 million superyacht that sank off Sicily in August, killing seven people including British tech tycoon Mike Lynch, have asked for heightened security to guard the vessel, over concerns that sensitive data locked in its safes may interest foreign governments, multiple sources told CNN.
Myths busted and lessons learned: John Vennavally-Rao on his surgery to reverse his ostomy
Twenty-seven year Â鶹ӰÊÓ reporter and anchor John Vennavally-Rao shares his story of what it was like to have an ostomy bag as part of his health-care battle. 'I’m grateful for what it did to extend my life,' he writes in a personal column for CTVNews.ca.
The British Columbia election campaign is set to officially start today, with Lt.-Gov. Janet Austin issuing the writ for the Oct. 19 vote.
A northern Ontario man is facing a $12,000 fine after illegally shooting a moose near the Batchawan River.
Heavy metal exposure could increase cardiovascular disease risk, study finds
A new study is adding to emerging research showing that exposure to metals such as cadmium, uranium and copper may also be associated with the leading cause of death worldwide, cardiovascular disease.
Unusual flippered feet are making their way into the Saint Lawrence River this weekend. Led by underwater explorer and filmmaker Nathalie Lasselin, volunteer divers are combing the riverbed near Beauharnois in Montérégie to remove hundreds of tires that have been polluting the aquatic environment for decades.
Hezbollah targets base near Haifa after Israeli strike in Beirut killed 37, including top commander
The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah announced that it fired a barrage of missiles at a military base deep inside Israel early Sunday following an Israeli airstrike more than a day earlier that killed at least 37 people, including one of the militant group’s senior leaders as well as women and children.
A sea lion swam free after a rescue team disentangled it near Vancouver Island earlier this week.
Local Spotlight
Cole Haas is more than just an avid fan of the F.W. Johnson Wildcats football team. He's a fixture on the sidelines, a source of encouragement, and a beloved member of the team.
Getting a photograph of a rainbow? Common. Getting a photo of a lightning strike? Rare. Getting a photo of both at the same time? Extremely rare, but it happened to a Manitoba photographer this week.
An anonymous business owner paid off the mortgage for a New Brunswick not-for-profit.
They say a dog is a man’s best friend. In the case of Darren Cropper, from Bonfield, Ont., his three-year-old Siberian husky and golden retriever mix named Bear literally saved his life.
A growing group of brides and wedding photographers from across the province say they have been taken for tens of thousands of dollars by a Barrie, Ont. wedding photographer.
Paleontologists from the Royal B.C. Museum have uncovered "a trove of extraordinary fossils" high in the mountains of northern B.C., the museum announced Thursday.
The search for a missing ancient 28-year-old chocolate donkey ended with a tragic discovery Wednesday.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police is celebrating an important milestone in the organization's history: 50 years since the first women joined the force.
It's been a whirlwind of joyful events for a northern Ontario couple who just welcomed a baby into their family and won the $70 million Lotto Max jackpot last month.