Conservatives extend summer lead over Liberals, NDP sees bump in Nanos ballot tracking
With the fall sitting of Parliament now underway, the latest shows the federal Conservatives continue to hold onto the lead they’ve had all summer while the Liberals remain stalled, and the NDP has managed to gain a bit of steam in third place.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's personal leadership number, meanwhile, is on a sharp upward trajectory while Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's has trended negatively since the beginning of September.
On the latest episode of CTV Trend Line, Nik Nanos, chief data scientist and founder of Nanos Research, said the Conservatives clearly have "the upper hand."
"The Conservatives are up six points. (Poilievre is) six points up on the Preferred Prime Minister tracking. The Liberals are back on their heels," said Nanos. While the Conservative advantage on the ballot question has lessened slightly since Aug. 4 when they were nine points ahead of the Liberals, "still, six points is enough to win an election."
NDP TRENDING UP
The NDP, meanwhile, is benefiting from the Liberal slump. "When the Liberal numbers go down, usually the NDP numbers go up. Maybe if you're Justin Trudeau and the Liberals, you've got to be hoping those NDP numbers are hidden Liberal numbers that might come out and vote for the red team in order to try to strategically vote and block Pierre Poilievre," said Nanos.
"But you know what? If you're Jagmeet Singh, you have to be thinking about how you can get that number 22 to 25." That, added, Nanos, would put the NDP into Tom Mulcair and Jack Layton territory.
Nanos tracking shows the NDP under Singh has approached or exceeded 25 per cent ballot support a handful of times since he became leader in 2017. The party has largely been hovering around 20 per cent, reaching a low of 13 per cent in October, 2020.
"It could be a massive game changer if the NDP can up their numbers even more," said Nanos.
PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER
On the question of Canadians' preferences for prime minister, Nanos said it's interesting to note the long-term trend, with Poilievre currently at 31 per cent versus Trudeau at 25 per cent.
"A Conservative leader has not been this high since Stephen Harper was prime minister. Right now, the Conservatives are very well poised," said Nanos.
"The other thing is, is when the leader of the opposition is ahead of the sitting prime minister, that's not good news for the sitting prime minister."
WHERE HOUSING, IMMIGRATION MEET
When it comes to Canadians' top issues of concern tracked weekly by Nanos, inflation is at the top at 17 per cent, followed by the environment at 14 per cent.
But concerns over housing and the cost of housing has shot up to 13 per cent, compared to six per cent four weeks earlier.
"Many Canadians are just struggling to pay for the rent or the mortgage in the next 30 days," said Nanos, who also did polling recently for the on immigration – asking Canadians whether we should be bringing in more new immigrants, the same amount or less.
"When you look at the trend line, when you look at 2020 compared to 2023, … the proportion of Canadians that thought we should be bringing in even more new Canadians was 17 per cent back in 2020. That's down to 8."
Meanwhile, the proportion of Canadians who think we should be bringing in fewer immigrants rose from 40 per cent in 2020 to 53 per cent today.
"It is now a majority, (a) slim majority but still a majority, nonetheless, at 53 per cent. So right now what it seems is, we're seeing the collision intersection … of issues like housing, where people are really worried about the rising cost of housing and just housing affordability, writ large, and things like immigration,"said Nanos.
Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts. The next episode comes out Wednesday, Oct. 4.
IN DEPTH
Jagmeet Singh pulls NDP out of deal with Trudeau Liberals, takes aim at Poilievre Conservatives
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has pulled his party out of the supply-and-confidence agreement that had been helping keep Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's minority Liberals in power.
'Not the result we wanted': Trudeau responds after surprise Conservative byelection win in Liberal stronghold
Conservative candidate Don Stewart winning the closely-watched Toronto-St. Paul's federal byelection, and delivering a stunning upset to Justin Trudeau's candidate Leslie Church in the long-time Liberal riding, has sent political shockwaves through both parties.
'We will go with the majority': Liberals slammed by opposition over proposal to delay next election
The federal Liberal government learned Friday it might have to retreat on a proposal within its electoral reform legislation to delay the next vote by one week, after all opposition parties came out to say they can't support it.
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Conservatives call on Elon Musk to step in after Liberals provide loan to Ottawa-based satellite operator
A $2.14-billion federal loan for an Ottawa-based satellite operator has Canadian politicians arguing about whether American billionaire Elon Musk poses a national security risk.
'Ticking time bomb': Those who raised suspicions about Trump suspect question if enough was done
The more Chelsea Walsh talked to the eccentric fellow American who seemed to pop up in every square and cobblestone street of Ukraine's capital, the more she got creeped out.
A northern Ontario man is facing a $12,000 fine after illegally shooting a moose near the Batchawan River.
Kids are inhaling 'Galaxy Gas' to get high. Here’s what parents should know
For some young people, a popular method for getting a quick high is by misusing laughing gas — and lately, that’s in the form of nitrous oxide from products sold by the company Galaxy Gas.
Trump appeals to women in return to North Carolina without Mark Robinson, a top in-state supporter
Donald Trump returned to North Carolina on Saturday, stumping in the southern battleground state with direct appeals to women, claiming he would be a better champion for them than U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, who is vying to become the first female president.
Police have arrested an 18-year-old woman who allegedly stole a Porsche and then ran over its owner in an incident that was captured on video.
Cards Against Humanity sues Elon Musk's SpaceX over alleged trespassing in Texas
The maker of the popular party game Cards Against Humanity is accusing Elon Musk's SpaceX of trespassing on and damaging a plot of vacant land the company owns in Texas.
Kamala Harris accepts CNN debate invitation for Oct. 23, challenging Trump to another showdown
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris on Saturday accepted an invitation from CNN to debate former President Donald Trump on October 23, challenging her rival to another engagement on a public stage in the final weeks of the campaign.
A body has been found in the vicinity where a woman went missing on the Ottawa River near Pembroke, Ont. while kayaking Tuesday night, according to the Ontario Provincial Police (OPP).
Local Spotlight
Cole Haas is more than just an avid fan of the F.W. Johnson Wildcats football team. He's a fixture on the sidelines, a source of encouragement, and a beloved member of the team.
Getting a photograph of a rainbow? Common. Getting a photo of a lightning strike? Rare. Getting a photo of both at the same time? Extremely rare, but it happened to a Manitoba photographer this week.
An anonymous business owner paid off the mortgage for a New Brunswick not-for-profit.
They say a dog is a man’s best friend. In the case of Darren Cropper, from Bonfield, Ont., his three-year-old Siberian husky and golden retriever mix named Bear literally saved his life.
A growing group of brides and wedding photographers from across the province say they have been taken for tens of thousands of dollars by a Barrie, Ont. wedding photographer.
Paleontologists from the Royal B.C. Museum have uncovered "a trove of extraordinary fossils" high in the mountains of northern B.C., the museum announced Thursday.
The search for a missing ancient 28-year-old chocolate donkey ended with a tragic discovery Wednesday.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police is celebrating an important milestone in the organization's history: 50 years since the first women joined the force.
It's been a whirlwind of joyful events for a northern Ontario couple who just welcomed a baby into their family and won the $70 million Lotto Max jackpot last month.