OTTAWA -- Two of Canada鈥檚 former top-ranking officials say the China dispute is unlikely to be resolved within the next year. That means the two detained Canadians, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, could remain in Chinese detention for an extended duration.
鈥淭his could go very slowly,鈥� former foreign affairs minister John Manley told host Evan Solomon during a panel for CTV Question Period, airing Sunday.
鈥淚t鈥檚 optimistic to think that our processes are going to actually resolve this for Meng in a year,鈥� he said.
Manley was referring to Chinese telecom executive Meng Wanzhou. Canada arrested Meng in response to an extradition order from the United States. China then went on to detain two Canadians, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, in an apparent retaliation for Meng鈥檚 December arrest.
Former CSIS Director Richard Fadden, who joined Manley on the panel, said China is unlikely to release Kovrig and Spavor before Meng鈥檚 case is resolved.
鈥淥ur extradition process is rather slow, to put it very diplomatically, so they could quite easily, in their way of thinking, say to themselves -- well (Canada鈥檚) taking 12 months to process Ms. Meng, why should they deal with these cases any more rapidly?鈥� Fadden said.
Fadden was speaking from personal experience. He was still working in the civil service in 2014 when Kevin and Julia Garratt were detained in China. Ms. Garratt was detained for six months, while her husband remained in Chinese detention for 775 days.
鈥淚 think a measure of patience is going to be required. These two people, unfortunately, being held by the Chinese, are not going to be released next week,鈥� Fadden said.
Manley echoed Fadden鈥檚 concern.
鈥�(Meng鈥檚) first trial date has been set, but it鈥檚 a date to set a date,鈥� Manley said.
The former foreign affairs minister explained that it isn鈥檛 unusual for extradition cases to drag on for at least a year -- and sometimes longer. If the Chinese opt to keep the two Canadians in detention until the case resolved, as Fadden suspects they might, it could be some time before Kovrig and Spavor step foot on Canadian soil.
However, the two experts pointed out that now that the case is before a judge, there鈥檚 little the government can do.
鈥淲e鈥檙e in it now. I mean, we鈥檙e like the bear in the woods. We put our foot in the leg-hole trap,鈥� Manley said.
He added that the time to act would have been in advance of Meng鈥檚 arrest.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 really think we should have gotten into this in the first place,鈥� Manley said.
鈥淭here were a variety of things we could have done.鈥�
One of those options, according to Manley, would have been to exercise discretion in advance of having to adhere to the extradition process. He said the minister of justice also has the final say on extradition orders, so discretion can play a role at the end of the process too.
However, Fadden said, now that Meng has been arrested, the matter is before the courts and outside of the government鈥檚 ability to intervene.
鈥淵ou don鈥檛 interfere with a set process even though at the final analysis a minister has the right to say yea or nay,鈥� Fadden said.
During a different panel in the same episode of CTV鈥檚 Question Period, former NDP leader Tom Mulcair had a different take.
鈥淲e shouldn鈥檛 even allow this to go to the courts. We should allow her to go home,鈥� Mulcair said on the subject of Meng鈥檚 U.S. extradition order.
He expressed his belief that the American extradition order had political motivations behind it.
鈥淲e can鈥檛 have it both ways. We can鈥檛 plead the rule of law and say that we鈥檙e following the rules like the good scouts that we are and at the same time have an American President who openly states that he would be willing to let her go if he gets a trade deal,鈥� Mulcair said.
No matter what route the government decides to take, Manley and Fadden both said they would not personally travel to China anytime soon.
鈥淚 said I wouldn鈥檛 go right now. Others are saying there鈥檚 no evidence that Canadian business executives are being taken. I think that becomes a matter of personal judgement,鈥� said Manley.
鈥淏ut there鈥檚 clearly a risk that this could escalate.鈥�
Meng is scheduled to appear before Canadian courts on Feb. 6.
